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December 16-18 Winter Storm Threat


Hoosier

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26 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

It shows some banding of snow/freezing rain right along the changeover zone south of I-80 overnight. Looks rather localized but could setup some heavy snow/ice where it does like you pointed out

Yeah... particularly concerned farther east into OH.  

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2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

We are getting a very light freezing drizzle/fine snow grain combo.  It is not looking good for snow here.  The euro has been very dry and the others are trending that way.  If that secondary wave misses south then we may not exceed an inch.

Yeah I'm kind of regretting going against my first call now (0.5-2) lol.  Oh well, at least we stay below freezing to maintain whatever crust we already have.

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snow starting to accumulate again in Madison but coming down very lightly, got a very fluffy half inch overnight with the first band.

 

will be interesting to see where the WAA band aligns this evening and overnight, do not have much faith in the frontogenesis band tomorrow, at least this far north.

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1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

Short term hi-res guidance (HRRR/RAP) did well with the last two events.

If they have a clue this time once again, it's not looking good for many areas with this first wave/WAA snows.

If correct, things will underperform just about everywhere outside of MI.

You really gotta do something about that double posting thing.

j/k... I've seen it happening with some other people too. 

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Current forecast has me continuing to warm in central IN from 22 now to 37 by 5 a.m. and up near 50 by tomorrow afternoon with rain.  Less than a half inch sleet/snow expected here currently from the system with little or no icing locally.   We shall see what happens.  988 mb low at present out in se Colorado.

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4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Short term hi-res guidance (HRRR/RAP) did well with the last two events.

If they have a clue this time once again, it's not looking good for many areas with this first wave/WAA snows.

If correct, things will underperform just about everywhere outside of MI.

yeah, latest hrrr only has 3-4 inches here through tomorrow morning, depending on ratios.  Would need another 3-4 with the fronto band tomorrow to reach forecast amounts which I cant really see happening.

 

18Z NAM gets us up to 8", 5 coming overnight and 3" with the band tomorrow

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Not showing up on radar naturally, but it's currently icing over with freezing drizzle in Des Moines. Some of the drizzle drops are already frozen before impact.

If we are lucky, saturation will increase to where radar fills in, warm air aloft will retreat and we will develop light real snow right away before icing gets substantial.

 

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