ConvectiveIA Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 23 minutes ago, smoof said: The NAM is driving me nuts with about 8 runs in a row with the weird surface evolution and no deform band hitting me, while the GFS has had like 18 runs in a row of a deform band here now, I'd still take the NAM's juicy 7-8" WAA snows but want the deform band the GFS and other models have been showing for many many runs. Hahaha don't be greedy now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Just now, ConvectiveIA said: Hahaha don't be greedy now. Lol it's been almost 10yrs since i last stuck my yardstick in and saw 12"+ I missed both GHD1+2 too far north and some others, if the gfs and kuchera ratios work out this could be 10-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 3 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: Just a bit icy overnight tomorrow night... Strong consistency from the NAM showing FRZA for a good part of Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 3 minutes ago, smoof said: Lol it's been almost 10yrs since i last stuck my yardstick in and saw 12"+ I missed both GHD1+2 too far north and some others, if the gfs and kuchera ratios work out this could be 10-12" That's shocking... Even in MI that long without a foot plus? Even Reno NV has had several 1ft plus storms in the last 10 years. One time in 2010 they predicted 1-2 inches, and we got under this training stationary band and got 26 freaking inches in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Just now, ConvectiveIA said: That's shocking... Even in MI? Even Reno NV has had several 1ft plus storms in the last 10 years. One time in 2010 they predicted 1-2 inches, and we got under this training stationary band and got 26 freaking inches in 12 hours. yeah I live in the perfect lake effect doughnut hole in MI, have to rely on system snow here, and everything has missed north or south forever, last *huge* storm i had was 11.5" in 2008, just missed the foot barrier, since then i've topped out around 9" every "big" storm per season IMBY...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 2 minutes ago, smoof said: yeah I live in the perfect lake effect doughnut hole in MI, have to rely on system snow here, and everything has missed north or south forever, last *huge* storm i had was 11.5" in 2008, just missed the foot barrier, since then i've topped out around 9" every "big" storm per season IMBY...... What did you get Feb 1, 2015? Also what we're your depths like in 2014? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 20 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z RGEM doesn't look like it will back the NAM's evolution. It is a bit wetter and south like the NAM, but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said: What did you get Feb 1, 2015? Also what we're your depths like in 2014? heres my ghd2 snow log entry.... 02-02-15 5.00" "GHD BLIZZARD 2.0" for everybody south, just strong wind and pixie dust yesterday into this morning. looks like I got around 42" normal season total in 2014 didn't record depths, never seen in 20yrs+ more than 20-23" depth though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 The GFS shows a pretty hefty band of snow on its backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 15 minutes ago, smoof said: heres my ghd2 snow log entry.... 02-02-15 5.00" "GHD BLIZZARD 2.0" for everybody south, just strong wind and pixie dust yesterday into this morning. looks like I got around 42" normal season total in 2014 didn't record depths, never seen in 20yrs+ more than 20-23" depth though I have at CMU, back in 2008. Super Tuesday snowstorm we got 20" of snow with it. I believe there was snow on the ground beforehand too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Still riding the 10-12" kuchera ratio line on the 0z GFS, with a nice deform band, ugh will the NAM ever cave to the other models or keep driving me insane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: I have at CMU, back in 2008. Super Tuesday snowstorm we got 20" of snow with it. I believe there was snow on the ground beforehand too. I'm pretty sure that's the one i only got 11.5" on 25miles NE of CMU, you guys got nailed a lot harder but it was still a great storm here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Will be interesting to see as this low pressure system gets fully sampled if it can do better for Eastern Iowa and northern Illinois with snow given the track, provided it stays consistent. All elements in place: existing Arctic air, WAA,overrunning, track, backside deformation zone, bitter cold rushing in as low passes east. Of course, what do I know. Just instinct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 The GFS consistently has hit far NE. IL/WI/MI with a good snow event.Just need the ECMWF to play ball now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Chicago storm I never saw your thoughts on how the euro handled last weekends storm vs some of the other global models. Given it as an outlier again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2016 Author Share Posted December 16, 2016 This is a pretty nutty gradient on the GFS between ORD and Gary...not sure I remember a 15 degree spread during a winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 I know other factors are at play...but that temperature map shows the potential with this storm. Mid 60s in S IL and subzero in NW IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 I can remember a storm in the late 80' s Chicago was in low 60's with thunder and 35-45 miles west getting hit with a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2016 Author Share Posted December 16, 2016 4 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: I know other factors are at play...but that temperature map shows the potential with this storm. Mid 60s in S IL and subzero in NW IA. There should be good banding potential in that snow area, so could see some areas do well/overperform even if it doesn't really trend into something more robust overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 18 minutes ago, Baum said: Will be interesting to see as this low pressure system gets fully sampled if it can do better for Eastern Iowa and northern Illinois with snow given the track, provided it stays consistent. All elements in place: existing Arctic air, WAA,overrunning, track, backside deformation zone, bitter cold rushing in as low passes east. Of course, what do I know. Just instinct. I've been thinking the same. If you saw a surface map with this storm on it, you'd think there'd be a little different outcome than what it looks like right now. Could change though. The GFS did pick up on this a little more w/ latest update, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Chicago storm I never saw your thoughts on how the euro handled last weekends storm vs some of the other global models. Given it as an outlier again.For our area it honestly didn't do too bad. It was much drier that other guidance, and it wasn't too far off from being correct.I was also the first to show the two wave scenario, instead of an all WAA/fgen setup, as the GFS held onto for such a long time.In other words, I would definitely take it into consideration, even if it's much different than other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Chicago storm I never saw your thoughts on how the euro handled last weekends storm vs some of the other global models. Given it as an outlier again.For our area it honestly didn't do too bad. It was much drier that other guidance, and it wasn't too far off from being correct.I was also the first to show the two wave scenario, instead of an all WAA/fgen setup, as the GFS held onto for such a long time.In other words, I would definitely take it into consideration, even if it's much different than other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 By the way... I don't know why it's double posting, and it won't let me delete them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 By the way... I don't know why it's double posting, and it won't let me delete them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: By the way... I don't know why it's double posting, and it won't let me delete them. I keep thinking this thread is really picking up, but it's just Chicago Storm double posting. Sitting quietly observing this one, I really think this will surprise the Chicago Metro north of 88. QPF and evolution just seems off on the models and is starting to catch up. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2016 Author Share Posted December 16, 2016 GGEM has a fairly healthy band of ice in the I-80 corridor of LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 All of the 0z runs thus far would imply the need for WSW for several counties in NE. Illinois, along with headline changes for other CWA's as well. Biggest hit for the MKE CWA.Just need the ECMWF to come onboard with the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 All of the 0z runs thus far would imply the need for WSW for several counties in NE. Illinois, along with headline changes for other CWA's as well. Biggest hit for the MKE CWA.Just need the ECMWF to come onboard with the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 38 minutes ago, Hoosier said: This is a pretty nutty gradient on the GFS between ORD and Gary...not sure I remember a 15 degree spread during a winter storm. 64 southern IL, 15 northern IL Crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Central OH NAM sounding.... crazy ice event there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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