Chicago Storm Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 FWIW, the Canadian tag team is more bullish on the southern extent of snow tomorrow.GGEM continues to just be wetter overall as well.The GFS kind of held. Many of the 12z GEFS members are wetter too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 FWIW, the Canadian tag team is more bullish on the southern extent of snow tomorrow.GGEM continues to just be wetter overall as well.The GFS kind of held. Many of the 12z GEFS members are wetter too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Yep, GEM amounts haven't changed much but the heaviest amounts have shifted over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 GFS has been pretty consistent over the past several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2016 Author Share Posted December 15, 2016 NAM still looks a little funky with the evolution, especially noticeable when looking at the surface maps... unless it's ahead of the curve somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Winter storm warning from NWS MKE... calling for 8" in Kenosha and 10" in Milwaukee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2016 Author Share Posted December 15, 2016 There could be a corridor that gets ice and never gets above freezing. Just focusing on the LOT cwa, I'd put the best odds of that on a line almost perfectly bisecting the LOT cwa...from LaSalle county E/NE toward Chicago (especially the south side). Caveat for areas near the lake is that water temps have cratered in the past several days, though are still above freezing, which may be enough to nudge temps above freezing as winds shift off the water. In that corridor, I could see perhaps up to a tenth or two of ice. Will have to watch trends to make sure quicker warming aloft/wetter doesn't occur, which would introduce the possibility for a more significant event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2016 Author Share Posted December 15, 2016 LOT goes with advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 13 minutes ago, Hoosier said: There could be a corridor that gets ice and never gets above freezing. Just focusing on the LOT cwa, I'd put the best odds of that on a line almost perfectly bisecting the LOT cwa...from LaSalle county E/NE toward Chicago (especially the south side). Caveat for areas near the lake is that water temps have cratered in the past several days, though are still above freezing, which may be enough to nudge temps above freezing as winds shift off the water. In that corridor, I could see perhaps up to a tenth or two of ice. Will have to watch trends to make sure quicker warming aloft/wetter doesn't occur, which would introduce the possibility for a more significant event. Yeah it could be a real mess Saturday. I think it'll be hard for temps to rise above freezing in this area, and even if they did, it would be brief and it would have to warm up a lot more to prevent freezing on surfaces. Could be a problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2016 Author Share Posted December 15, 2016 41 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: Yeah it could be a real mess Saturday. I think it'll be hard for temps to rise above freezing in this area, and even if they did, it would be brief and it would have to warm up a lot more to prevent freezing on surfaces. Could be a problem Oh yeah. It would take a nice jump north for us to get far enough above freezing to stop the problems on the surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 IND in their discussion talking about a 4 hr. period of freezing rain in central IN Friday night until changing to rain. But what caught my eye was mention of thunder in southern IN although they opted out of putting it in forecast as of yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Fantastic discussion by LOT this afternoon for Chicago folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Lol at the double posts by Joe. If geos was still here, he'd be rooting for a south shift of 50 miles or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Lol at the double posts by Joe. If geos was still here, he'd be rooting for a south shift of 50 miles or so.I didn't even notice it till you mentioned it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Lol at the double posts by Joe. If geos was still here, he'd be rooting for a south shift of 50 miles or so.I didn't even notice it till you mentioned it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2016 Author Share Posted December 16, 2016 It seems like overall there has been a slight tendency to saturate quicker with southward extent. I'm increasingly optimistic for a few inches even around here just south of I-80 by mid-late evening Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 The 00z NAM is different. Would definitely be a best case scenario for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 The 00z NAM is different. Would definitely be a best case scenario for many.For the first wave, WAA precip is more filled in to the south of the main axis, which helps south ends from the LOT CWA into MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Just now, Chicago Storm said: For the first wave, WAA precip is more filled in to the south of the main axis, which helps south ends from the LOT CWA into MI. Not only that, but the extent of warm air is muted (no parts of MI get above 32*F) and it's dry slot city during the time that liquid precipitation would be a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: For the first wave, WAA precip is more filled in to the south of the main axis, which helps south ends from the LOT CWA into MI. Much more realistic looking, and closer to the GFS as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2016 Author Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 minute ago, Powerball said: Not only that, but the extent of warm air is muted (no parts of MI get above 32*F) and it's dry slot city during the time that liquid precipitation would be a concern. NAM has been doing that on other runs, but it's pretty much by itself I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: NAM has been doing that on other runs, but it's pretty much by itself I think. The warmth above the surface has been getting nudged further and further southeast on the GFS and Euro as well run to run. The NAM is the most aggressive with keeping the warm air away though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Just now, Hoosier said: NAM has been doing that on other runs, but it's pretty much by itself I think. Temp-wise, when the typically torchy NAM does it, I certainly wouldn't write off that outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Part of the reason why the NAM and especially the 4km NAM is struggling with the southern extent of the snow shield is because of the convective nature of the southern extent. I would imagine that the areas on the southern fringe will see more than the NAM is currently showing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2016 Author Share Posted December 16, 2016 2 minutes ago, Powerball said: Temp-wise, when the typically torchy NAM does it, I certainly wouldn't write off that outcome. I think part of it comes down to how it's handling the sfc pattern. We'll see what the temps look like if it gets in line with other guidance on a mid-upper 990s low tracking from STL toward TOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Just now, Hoosier said: I think part of it comes down to how it's handling the sfc pattern. We'll see what the temps look like if it gets in line with other guidance on a mid-upper 990s low tracking from STL toward TOL. True. I would lean against the stronger solutions that the GFS / GGEM show given that we're dealing with a positive-tilt trough and an open wave (and instead a more strung-out solution), but the NAM may be too far in the other direction as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 The NAM is driving me nuts with about 8 runs in a row with the weird surface evolution and no deform band hitting me, while the GFS has had like 18 runs in a row of a deform band here now, I'd still take the NAM's juicy 7-8" WAA snows but want the deform band the GFS and other models have been showing for many many runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2016 Author Share Posted December 16, 2016 00z RGEM doesn't look like it will back the NAM's evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Just a bit icy overnight tomorrow night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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