Hoosier Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 It's the weekend, so of course. We are creeping into the 5 day window now with very good model agreement on there being a storm in this timeframe, but the synoptic evolution remains uncertain as to whether it is more of a single, wound up system or multiple waves. In either case, one thing that is certain leading in is that there will be an impressive cold dome, so even a deep solution would present a front end snow/ice threat in many areas before changing to rain. A weaker/multi wave solution would produce significant winter weather across a larger part of the region. Should be a fun week of tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 I honestly hope this one does not happen. My third grade son is scheduled to take a field trip to the Museum of Science and Industry in Chicago on Friday, and he will be disappointed if it is cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 30 minutes ago, DaveNay said: I honestly hope this one does not happen. My third grade son is scheduled to take a field trip to the Museum of Science and Industry in Chicago on Friday, and he will be disappointed if it is cancelled. As much as I want winter weather, I am flying to New Orleans Thursday for a commencement at University of Southern Mississippi on Friday then back Saturday for Purdue's commencement on Sunday. Not going to be fun dealing with this at all... It is the ice threat more than a snow threat I worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 I honestly hope this one does not happen. My third grade son is scheduled to take a field trip to the Museum of Science and Industry in Chicago on Friday, and he will be disappointed if it is cancelled.We will gladly take it in Central IL/IN/OH we've missed out two weekends in a row... it does look like whoever is on the southern edge could be dealing with some hefty Ice totals from this.Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 12z ECMWF with a bit of a different solution than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 18z GFS went away from the bigger cutter, at least for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Just now, Hoosier said: 18z GFS went away from the bigger cutter, at least for now. Yeah its weaker than the 12z, but it retains the cold air in the region thus allowing for more frozen precipitation in many areas. Develops a weaker transient secondary Low thereafter, but usually those never pan out as modelled. Any initial thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 7 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Yeah its weaker than the 12z, but it retains the cold air in the region thus allowing for more frozen precipitation in many areas. Develops a weaker transient secondary Low thereafter, but usually those never pan out as modelled. Any initial thoughts? Other than what was in the first post? Not really. Too early to get a handle on how this plays out. I'd actually prefer the non-wound up solution though, as it would get more people in the game for sig snow and/or ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Other than what was in the first post? Not really. Too early to get a handle on how this plays out. I'd actually prefer the non-wound up solution though, as it would get more people in the game for sig snow and/or ice. This. Plus, a weaker system may reduce the ice probabilities. I'll take the white stuff please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 I know a GFS solution would be right up michsnowfreak's ally. He'll then have yet another season with an insanely deep snowpack he can build upon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 3 minutes ago, IWXwx said: This. Plus, a weaker system may reduce the ice probabilities. I'll take the white stuff please. I actually think a weaker system (not precip wise but surface low intensity) could increase the ice threat over a larger area. The warm advection wouldn't be quite as rapid so that shallow cold layer wouldn't be nuked as quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 9 minutes ago, Powerball said: I know a GFS solution would be right up michsnowfreak's ally. He'll then have yet another season with an insanely deep snowpack he can build upon. You know me well lol! I can't even fathom that happening for a 3rd time in 4 winters. Talk about unprecedented stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: I actually think a weaker system (not precip wise but surface low intensity) could increase the ice threat over a larger area. The warm advection wouldn't be quite as rapid so that shallow cold layer wouldn't be nuked as quickly. I was thinking that without as hard a cutter, upper level temps would stay cold enough that the whole column would stay below freezing. Wishful thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Would love to see this come in multiple waves and allow people south of I-80 to get in on the fun! Another cutter will hurt my soul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 At this point, my best guess for Toledo-Detroit would be snow to ice to rain, back to snow next weekend. Calling for ice accumulation this far in advance would be too hard to call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 If the GFS is right we might be more than halfway to the season average by this time next weekend. Talk about an absolute crush job here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 I was worried about rain in Marquette 2 days ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 23 minutes ago, Stebo said: If the GFS is right we might be more than halfway to the season average by this time next weekend. Talk about an absolute crush job here. 8 minutes ago, Jonger said: I was worried about rain in Marquette 2 days ago... Goes without saying, but we are a long ways out. I'll take the snow but more than anything I want to avoid any sort of meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 0Z GFS would plaster Central Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2016 Author Share Posted December 12, 2016 13 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 0Z GFS would plaster Central Michigan Decent front end thump south of there in places like N IL/N IN/S MI before it changes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 20 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Decent front end thump south of there in places like N IL/N IN/S MI before it changes over. Yeah same idea is there from the 18z, just a bit further north placement of the strong W-E band of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 GEM's front end thump is a little more spread the wealth before turning into a precipitation cocktail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Decent front end thump south of there in places like N IL/N IN/S MI before it changes over.From a WFO perspective, I'm very concerned about the system because it follows so closely on the heels of the arctic air mass. So even for areas in LOT CWA that warm above freezing and change over to rain (if there are any), we could still deal with freezing on roads, a scenario that happened after the early January 2014 cold wave. Also, there's very good model agreement in the cold air pouring right back in in the wake of the system on Saturday, so that could set up a flash freeze situation. With all this being said, I'm hoping for a mainly snow event. Icing is an even bigger forecasting headache for the WFOs and also we don't need power outages as the next arctic blast arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Would like to see that wave on the Euro and UK swing through the SW and go negative tilt (and thus really put a bombing scenario into play), but the overall progression doesn't quite support that as it sits now, with more of a tendency to shear out and lead to an anafrontal situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 4 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: From a WFO perspective, I'm very concerned about the system because it follows so closely on the heels of the arctic air mass. So even for areas in LOT CWA that warm above freezing and change over to rain (if there are any), we could still deal with freezing on roads, a scenario that happened after the early January 2014 cold wave. Also, there's very good model agreement in the cold air pouring right back in in the wake of the system on Saturday, so that could set up a flash freeze situation. With all this being said, I'm hoping for a mainly snow event. Icing is an even bigger forecasting headache for the WFOs and also we don't need power outages as the next arctic blast arrives. I have the same concerns from an Emergency Management standpoint. You guys have the toughest part in forecasting it, but we have to somehow convey the threat to the public, then deal with the aftermath in the event of significant icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 00z GFS nails N.Illinois up into Wisconsin, south central Michigan. Has a 997mb low in N. Central Indiana. Once again C.Illinois in the screw zone with rain, and then a flash freeze situation. Forecast calls for a High of 44 Saturday and a low of 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Euro and GFS are miles apart. Euro has a more strung out system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Here in central IN my concern is ice changing to rain. Like Chambana I just want to have some white ground cover to get fully in the Christmas mood but that might have to wait a little while longer IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2016 Author Share Posted December 12, 2016 11 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: From a WFO perspective, I'm very concerned about the system because it follows so closely on the heels of the arctic air mass. So even for areas in LOT CWA that warm above freezing and change over to rain (if there are any), we could still deal with freezing on roads, a scenario that happened after the early January 2014 cold wave. Also, there's very good model agreement in the cold air pouring right back in in the wake of the system on Saturday, so that could set up a flash freeze situation. With all this being said, I'm hoping for a mainly snow event. Icing is an even bigger forecasting headache for the WFOs and also we don't need power outages as the next arctic blast arrives. IIRC, the roads were still a problem in that 2014 event even after 2m temps rose into the upper 30s. Definitely a concern if something like that happens this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 15 minutes ago, Hoosier said: IIRC, the roads were still a problem in that 2014 event even after 2m temps rose into the upper 30s. Definitely a concern if something like that happens this time. Was brutal. The one time I have ever slid into a ditch, Tollway's were fine, side roads were a nightmare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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