RedSky Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Excessive snow forecast for Sicily! Yeah it's one of those winters frozen pizza. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 GFS shows brief possibility of snow/sleet/ice late thursday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 43 minutes ago, Newman said: GFS shows brief possibility of snow/sleet/ice late thursday: That set up would be almost certainly 95% rain, regardless of what the model says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, The Iceman said: That set up would be almost certainly 95% rain, regardless of what the model says. True. There is no CAD signature and no high pressure. Oh well. Just trying to find some frozen precip in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 We need this to verify BADLY! It wont, but nice eye candy anyway: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Also thought this was cool a little later in the period on the CMC. Watch this loop and note the movement of the HP over Maine. Then watch the movement of the LP in the South. It looks like the two are gearing up for a head-to-head war and the CMC wants to make us the battleground. Again, posting for S&G because I thought the two pressure heading for each other was kind of cool (though likely wrong) and not something you see every day: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Looks like the next 7 days have 2 chances for something frozen. First one is Tuesday AM as warm front presses thru could start out briefly as sleet then over to fzra and plain rain. Northern areas (upper Bucks, Berks,. LV, etc) stand the best shot but even there it eventually flips over. NAM shows some wedging of the cold air. Big old 1050HP settles in over Maine later in the week as a cold front presses thru. Will setup a boundary between CAA and WAA which may or may not put our area in a risk depending on where the boundary sets up and timing of waves moving along. Low confidence in that setup but again, something to watch later in the week into next weekend. Models and ensemble members are all over the place irt to timing of waves and location of boundary attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Long range is completely chaotic late next weekend and early the following week we're projected as quite warm and now various scenarios of a battle with arctic high pressure possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 12z GFS good example of the well modeled torch period mid month next Sunday to Tuesday hinting at a winter event. Of course it may very well flip and go back to that torch but now the period is muddled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Long range is completely chaotic late next weekend and early the following week we're projected as quite warm and now various scenarios of a battle with arctic high pressure possible. Sounds like a 1994 redux but what do I know.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Sounds like a 1994 redux but what do I know.... That would be very cool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Current temp down to 18 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 1994 was waaaay colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 9, 2017 Author Share Posted January 9, 2017 Wxsim for NW Chesco with 18z GFS and 0z NAM for next potential "event" Tuesday: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. A slight chance of a mix of snow and sleet in the afternoon. High 29. Wind chill ranging from 5 to 21. Wind south-southwest around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation less than 20 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. No snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Tuesday night: Dense overcast. A slight chance of a mix of sleet, snow, and freezing rain in the evening, then a mix of freezing rain and sleet likely after midnight. Low 27, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill as low as 19. Wind south-southwest around 9 mph in the evening, becoming 13 mph, gusting to 19 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. No snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 14 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Also thought this was cool a little later in the period on the CMC. Watch this loop and note the movement of the HP over Maine. Then watch the movement of the LP in the South. It looks like the two are gearing up for a head-to-head war and the CMC wants to make us the battleground. Again, posting for S&G because I thought the two pressure heading for each other was kind of cool (though likely wrong) and not something you see every day: Looks like storm type E : http://www.glenallenweather.com/alink/18snow/stormtypes.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheJMan Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 19 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said: Looks like storm type E : http://www.glenallenweather.com/alink/18snow/stormtypes.htm was that a major blizzard? in Jan 2000? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 minute ago, TheJMan said: was that a major blizzard? in Jan 2000? Raliegh broke its 24 hr snowfall record. Wasn't a major event for our area. Biggest thing was that the forecast was a complete failure. Here's a nice guide: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheJMan Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said: Raliegh broke its 24 hr snowfall record. Wasn't a major event for our area. Biggest thing was that the forecast was a complete failure. Here's a nice guide: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/ Thank you for this! Its amazing how they missed this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 56 minutes ago, TheJMan said: Thank you for this! Its amazing how they missed this... Meanwhile as we complain about forecasts getting worse in recent years here we are discussing a 20" bust high where forecasters didn't even forecast a low pressure forming. The first signs of snow where " hey, listen was that thunder!?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Meanwhile as we complain about forecasts getting worse in recent years here we are discussing a 20" bust high where forecasters didn't even forecast a low pressure forming. The first signs of snow where " hey, listen was that thunder!?" I can't speak for specific forecasts or forecasters but I can tell you back then on mirc and easternweather, many of us saw this unfolding 36 hours prior. Many outlets wouldn't budge because they didn't want to believe the ETA model output (would eventually become the NAM and yes, that model has always "NAM'd" at times hence why many didn't buy what it was showing). I remember a small group of us at the time wondering when anyone would look at the current initialization obs and actually see the ETA had the right idea. Then the AVN (now the gfs) model started showing low pressure off SC but tracked it ENE so again the ETA was tossed. It was only when the AVN began tracking farther N and W with each run that others began scratching their heads. While it was a surprise to many on the models, if you saw initialization at 36 hours or so prior it was evident the shortwave was quite a bit stronger and more amped up than models were showing. I remember Scott Simard and myself at the time commenting how the tools used to properly initialize the conus environment were failing severely and throwing fits into the forecast because the vorticity was essentially changing/developing/intensifying so rapidly. It was a great system to learn from. another perfect example of meteorology vs modelology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 9, 2017 Author Share Posted January 9, 2017 12 hours ago, zenmsav6810 said: Raliegh broke its 24 hr snowfall record. Wasn't a major event for our area. Biggest thing was that the forecast was a complete failure. Here's a nice guide: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/ Actually it did end up a major event for our area - with 11" in my backyard. This was the incredibly poorly modeled event that was supposed to stay to the south....but kept coming north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Two wave system coming next weekend into early next week. We will need the first wave to be stronger and attack the arctic high. 12z GFS with a decent winter event on the weekend, para GFS barely anything. CMC shreds and cuts the first wave to our south. 0z ECM was a non event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Two wave system coming next weekend into early next week. We will need the first wave to be stronger and attack the arctic high. 12z GFS with a decent winter event on the weekend, para GFS barely anything. CMC shreds and cuts the first wave to our south. 0z ECM was a non event. Watch the 500mb pattern/trend.....ignore the surface for now. You will drive yourself nuts trying to figure out which model's surface depiction is correct, biases, etc. Pattern aloft is screaming ice event for someone VA-NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Watch the 500mb pattern/trend.....ignore the surface for now. You will drive yourself nuts trying to figure out which model's surface depiction is correct, biases, etc. Pattern aloft is screaming ice event for someone VA-NY.Eta: Just to add, even a super weak surface reflection of a wave in that pattern can yield an icy scenario. 1994 comes to mind. No monster slp in any of the ice events from what I recall, just weak surface waves with overunningSent from my XT603 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 When lead time is down to 36 hours or so and hi resolution models take over, I expect to see significantly more CAD as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheJMan Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 What are the chances that 2nd wave actually produces anything but rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Apparently the WB 18z Nam 3k crapped the technological bed and gave us 48" of snow. Now that's what I call a weenie map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Off topic but interesting a couple earthquakes today up north in the arctic circle area and not in the same place, this following a 5.8 yesterday. Rare to have earthquakes up there where are you Bacon Strips. RSOE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 3 hours ago, shemATC said: Apparently the WB 18z Nam 3k crapped the technological bed and gave us 48" of snow. Now that's what I call a weenie map. Got me thinking so I started checking out the NAM for California. I see a 77.6" and it has gone off the color charts now California Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Euro keeps trending colder on the weekend. Stout arctic high now holds through Monday. Once upon a time we were going to be near 60F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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