Redmorninglight Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I assume the news is not good even for the immediate coast regarding Euro for Saturday. Cue Paul Simon, "...slip sliding away" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 41 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm willing to bet it starts to cave to the GFS and either barely holds its course but more likely a nudge S and E. Had the same belief and sure enough...LUCY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 Latest thoughts from JB on 12z Euro - still not buying further east move -says "don't overreact to a model will wait to see all of the players on field in Midwest" that said IMO "the nearer your destination the more you slip slidin away" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 Wxsim with 12Z GFS/NAM combo bumps up snow to the "largest" snow of the season with 1.3" to 2.0" depending on ratios for NW Chesco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Overnight guidance took a respectable jump N and W wrt to the weekend system. Now gets parts of South Jersey into light snow. More likely a 'too little too late' scenario for anything appreciable down that way but I would be lying if I said there was not room for this to come any farther West. NAM is keying on precip developing along the arctic boundary ahead of the system which helps draw the baroclinic zone farther N and W. Could be a feature the higher resolution guidance is seeing. Something to watch anyway East of I95. A few more shifts like this on the next 2-3 model runs and who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Overnight guidance took a respectable jump N and W wrt to the weekend system. Now gets parts of South Jersey into light snow. More likely a 'too little too late' scenario for anything appreciable down that way but I would be lying if I said there was not room for this to come any farther West. NAM is keying on precip developing along the arctic boundary ahead of the system which helps draw the baroclinic zone farther N and W. Could be a feature the higher resolution guidance is seeing. Something to watch anyway East of I95. A few more shifts like this on the next 2-3 model runs and who knows? Will be something to watch at least. Would not be surprised if south jersey ends up with a surprise 2-3" event out of this. Thought it would shift further north, and it did some, as it's no longer an Atlanta jackpot. There's still some room though to get in on a light snow if we get some trends today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Will be something to watch at least. Would not be surprised if south jersey ends up with a surprise 2-3" event out of this. Thought it would shift further north, and it did some, as it's no longer an Atlanta jackpot. There's still some room though to get in on a light snow if we get some trends today.Yeah, I'll take a consolution prize of light snow at this point. Really thought 4-5 days ago that SE Ridge was gonna hold firm and give us a hit back our way but that feature has basically been bulldozed over and is essentially a non-factor now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Looks like we've been NAMed for the Saturday event....improved (northward movement of precip. shield) significantly over 6z runs. It is the NAM but all three of the higher res. versions show it. Don't tell Redmorninglight or he won't get any work done today. Getting NAMed aside, the current trend is a good one for the weekend. Everyone stay calm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: Looks like we've been NAMed for the Saturday event....improved (northward movement of precip. shield) significantly over 6z runs. It is the NAM but all three of the higher res. versions show it. Don't tell Redmorninglight or he won't get any work done today. Getting NAMed aside, the current trend is a good one for the weekend. Everyone stay calm. South Jersey bullseye? Is that 4-6" on the NAM down that way with a grand total of 7-10" for both waves? Nice to see some flurries make it to my area Saturday anyway. As you said, another decent shift. Looks like the NAM is developing precip on the arctic boundary once this first wave passes and this helps enhance precip N and W and also creates a small weakness/path of lesser resistance for the 2nd wave to track closer. Will definitely be watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: South Jersey bullseye? Is that 4-6" on the NAM down that way with a grand total of 7-10" for both waves? Nice to see some flurries make it to my area Saturday anyway. As you said, another decent shift. Looks like the NAM is developing precip on the arctic boundary once this first wave passes and this helps enhance precip N and W and also creates a small weakness/path of lesser resistance for the 2nd wave to track closer. Will definitely be watching. This is my first winter tracking storms with you guys. Before it was just a passing interest, now it is a hobby. I can't tell you how helpful explanations like that are in trying to understand all this stuff! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Well, the super high resolution 3km is rumored to have been VERY accurate so far since it's inception. Let's hope it's right. Hey Redlight....you awake man???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheJMan Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just saw the 3KM NAM, would love for that to play out here in CNJ, wishful thinking.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 11 minutes ago, Jsdphilly said: This is my first winter tracking storms with you guys. Before it was just a passing interest, now it is a hobby. I can't tell you how helpful explanations like that are in trying to understand all this stuff! Thanks! No problem....it's how I learned. Why not pass the little knowledge I have along, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Based on 12Z data, a separate thread was warranted for Saturday's potential and has been created. Looks like a S and E of I95 event "FOR NOW" but the trend is our friend at this hour! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geeter1 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Hoping for another 50 mile shift NW !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Looks great....but in the back of my head the Euro is going to say "no!" Fingers crossed and if the Euro is trending like the NAM I think we most definitely have something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I do believe the NAM was the first to sniff out last years "blizzard", long before the others did...and it's (then) "ludicrous" amounts were spot-on for many areas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The NAM verified better for last January than the GFS (locally), but it was still overall too ambitious with snowfall amounts (again locally). It has long had a bit of a wet bias, though it was due to receive improvements in the near-future as the DGEX gets phased out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Ralph's NAM map looks exactly like the ECM tease 36hrs ago, keep in mind it has backed way off that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 While I think PHL has a chance for a couple inches - I do not see this making it hardly at all once west of I95....pretty sure N and W areas are not in the conversation for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Got rid of my CFL floodlights and have some new Led's that don't get dim in cold weather. They should be pretty good snow lights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Radar looks good so just tried my new billion candle flashlight all I see is dust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Radar looks good so just tried my new billion candle flashlight all I see is dust As in very fine snow no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 A ten mile NW shift gets most us of here in on an SECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I assume hizenberg is in the sierra nevada's? where this storm will get someone 10"-15", someone there is going to get 10'-15'! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Seeing talk of 60-70F late next week enjoy winter because spring is right around the corner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Our "pattern changes" have amounted to little more than 2-3 day cool downs. Isles of chill in a sea of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Our "pattern changes" have amounted to little more than 2-3 day cool downs. Isles of chill in a sea of warmth. That's why I tried to enjoy last night as much as I could. Any shot of consistent winter looks ugly until at least early February starting next week. I'm sure by mid March we ll see that big pattern change that's been predicted just in time to have multiple 40 degree rainstorms into may... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2009-2015 capped off with the super blizzard of January 2016 was probably the greatest period of winter for this region in hundreds of years. Time to get some slack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Seeing talk of 60-70F late next week enjoy winter because spring is right around the corner Enjoyed what could very possibly be our largest event of the season. Daughter's kindergarten canceled today, son went in 2-hours late. Got to go sledding finally :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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