Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Ralph, you've hung in there well for this one. I think you should go down with the ship, or ride it into a sandbar (that would be for a dusting). Seriously, this has been a teaser and I'd be happy with an inch of snow between Thursday and Monday. Of course I wouldn't turn down more than that :-). OMG! Lol @ the pic!Going to ride this baby out, no sense backing down now. White flag was pulled out of storage, looked at, then tossed in the fireplace. Jan 6-9.....best shot so far this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 hours ago, Redmorninglight said: Does anybody have an idea what the 12z Euro showed for Cape May? Sorry to ask, but someone said it was like 8" for OCMD and i am not sure how sharp the cutoff is. Thanks. Here is the 12z for Wildwood - looking good!! I may have to take a road trip to my place in Sea Isle!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Man that's sweet! Hope it bumps up for you guys inland. But not too much cause we'd rain. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I'm checking in to say hello and also how much this winter sucks. That is all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 Nice job with Wxsim today with 0.75" actual rain fall vs forecast of 0.67" Wxsim with 0z NAM/18z GFS still not impressed with any snow chances - down to 0.1" of snow by Friday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 9 hours ago, Birds~69 said: I made a promise to myself at the end of last winter to check models only "occasionally" this season when a possible threat is real. I haven't been following every up to the minute model this year....just pop in here and there for an update. I pissed away so much time last season. Total waste of time unless it's your occupation. This is true last winter post blizzard was very hard on digital snow and computer model hobbyists that was when the Lucy thing started with many missed chances even in the medium range. This winter we shuffled the atmosphere real good changing the ENSO state etc. yet have ended up with an even worse pattern it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Lucy is slowly making a half hearted attempt to hold the football for Ralph. Will he run for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, RedSky said: Lucy is slowly making a half hearted attempt to hold the football for Ralph. Will he run for it? 1 I just saw that... its off to the races. The game is afoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said: I just saw that... its off to the races. The game is afoot. 0z run has 3" in Philly and 2" in Ralphy's yard counting whatever falls Friday of course lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Double digits for Wildwood and Cap May, if only it had support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 We'll just have to wait for the gfs to get onboard 96hrs out. All eyes on the canadian. Off course well probably get nam'd at somepoint to at which point I'll punt on winter... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Hot diggity dog look at DT go!! Calling up analogs from Valentines Day 2014 as suggested by someone earlier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 It's late and you guys are dreaming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, RedSky said: It's late and you guys are dreaming King Euro is our hero... he needs no support to take back his domain of predicting the elusive SECS. I know you want to believe RedSky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Lucy is slowly making a half hearted attempt to hold the football for Ralph. Will he run for it? Not so interested in Saturday attm.....more interested in Friday AM for now. 6z Rgem, NAM, and yes, the CRAS have upped the ante. Range is a general 1-3" in SE PA with 4" lollis and coastal NJ up to 5". Looks like we are finally figuring out the right wave and honestly, those totals have some room to slightly increase imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 0z run has 3" in Philly and 2" in Ralphy's yard counting whatever falls Friday of course lol I think u r focusing on wave 2 too much Red. Are you sure you aren't lined up for that football already? ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I'm definitely feeling better for the storm Thursday-Friday over the one after it this weekend. While people are saying that we should wait for the wave to come onshore for sampling, I don't really recall a storm where the forecasts were drastically changed. I'm feeling 1-3" for the storm coming up, giving room for a little less since the NAM may just be NAMing, but I certainly wouldn't mind more than currently forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Not too enthused with wave 2 attm but admittedly did glance at the Euro and EPS. Euro op leading the way in that camp ticking NW with most EPS members now getting decent snows (up to a half foot) into DC. Meanwhile, everything is ticking SE or weak and holding its ground. Even the UKIE caved towards the SE tick. Don't do it Red.....don't line up for that field goal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Hot diggity dog look at DT go!! Calling up analogs from Valentines Day 2014 as suggested by someone earlier! That's ballsy calling for a MECS for the MA and Northeast when NO OPERATIONAL MODEL has even a hint of this. I suppose if u r loving the EPS there are signals but this will either be DT's victory dance or quite possibly his darkest hour. He even used the term "WOOF". He is honking BIG time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Hmmm, NAVGEM just had a massive shift NW at 6z for Saturday now getting measurable snow into SE PA. That might be the red flag we were waiting for..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: That's ballsy calling for a MECS for the MA and Northeast when NO OPERATIONAL MODEL has even a hint of this. I suppose if u r loving the EPS there are signals but this will either be DT's victory dance or quite possibly his darkest hour. He even used the term "WOOF". He is honking BIG time. In his defense I think he is calling it south of us. He hasn't made mention of that for the Northeast. At least from what I have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 24 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: In his defense I think he is calling it south of us. He hasn't made mention of that for the Northeast. At least from what I have seen. I think you may be correct....he is speaking to VA and Maryland specifically. However, when you are comparing to a storm that brought a 'general' 8-10" in our area and farther up I95 into New England, I assume he is suggesting a similar situation, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 Wxsim with 6z data from GFS and NAM for NW Chesco Wave 1 - flurries Wave 2 - 1" to 1.5" depending on ratios 0.09 w.e. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Wxsim with 6z data from GFS and NAM for NW Chesco Wave 1 - flurries Wave 2 - 1" to 1.5" depending on ratios 0.09 w.e.How is wxsim only flurries for wave 1 with the 6z gfs/nam data ingested to it? Im guessing lower end of 1-3" actually verifies extreme SE PA but who knows. That SE Ridge is coming on stronger causing the weak slp to track nearer the coast and enhance the jet-induced precip, especially into coastal NJ and DE sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Nice AFD this morning from M Gorse and company at Mt Holly. Wave 1 gets most of us on the board and wave 2, well, let's hope that southern stream system trends a little stronger like the Euro had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Nice AFD this morning from M Gorse and company at Mt Holly. Wave 1 gets most of us on the board and wave 2, well, let's hope that southern stream system trends a little stronger like the Euro had.Just saw their AFD...they r going with a general 1-3" snowfall as well. I will certainly take that just to get us on the board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 Edit: I had this backwards on initial post (thanks Steve!) - corrected now Wxsim with 6z data from GFS and NAM for NW Chesco Wave 1 - 1" to 1.5" depending on ratios with 0.9 w.e. Wave 2 - flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I think you may be correct....he is speaking to VA and Maryland specifically. However, when you are comparing to a storm that brought a 'general' 8-10" in our area and farther up I95 into New England, I assume he is suggesting a similar situation, no? True. But again, if you look at that map he posted where VA had a 16"-20" area in 2014 that same area is under the gun for 16"-20" for this storm as of right now. I believe that is what he is seeing, and not necessarily our area and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Waiting on crazy uncle Ukie but all the other early 12z models show no noticeable improvements, short wave crashing the west coast running low on time. Would be content to see the ECM hold the solution this morning for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Would be content to see the ECM hold the solution this morning for now. I'm willing to bet it starts to cave to the GFS and either barely holds its course but more likely a nudge S and E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.