KamuSnow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not good to be in the bullseye at this range but for s&g: The caboose wave in this progression looks like the winner. Jan 6-9 period will produce. Models still in some disagreement as to which wave. Too early to get overly excited, much variability lately, would like to see more agreement among models. But, nice to see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said: No such worries here in Media Delaware County 37f cloudy freezing rain...right?? 35F and light rain here now. It was 29F at some point after midnight, but no evidence of anything frozen having fallen here. Ground is wet (not icy) - I'd still watch out for slick spots at this hour, even at 35F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Too early to get overly excited, much variability lately, would like to see more agreement among models. But, nice to see! *For now* the GFS/GFS-para are leading the way with the other models slowly trending towards them. GFS is the extreme on the stormy snowy end while the Euro is a miss to the SE. I'd be more concerned with 500mb patterns at this range but again, the GFS camps appears to be leading the way in how it is handling the energy off the NW coast with other guidance jumping towards it's depiction of that feature thru 96 hrs. Still a fair amt of disagreement thereafter but the Ukmet, CMC, and Euro are slowly trending towards a more healthy consolidated sw coming out of the NW. GEFS also showing a decent day 6-7 signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Gefs at 6z essentially say "what storm?" and shear out the energy ejecting from the West damping it out in the fast follow as it moves East. GFS op and GFS-para clearly the extreme on the one side of the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 12z GFS obliterates North Carolina and Virginia with something like last year's blizzard. Every run a different outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 00z 8" 12z 0" GFS/GFS-para appear to agree with others now. This looks to be a MD or South storm. At least it will be cold enough to freeze up the mud in the yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 6z para was a huge hit btw. 12z gefs are all over the place, Canadian has absolutely nothing for a weekend storm and fringes our area with some light snow on Friday with the first wave. ECM was basically nothing of consequence. Zero continuity or agreement chaos rules for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3' of snow in parts of VA on the 12Z GFS. Plenty of time to shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 But Ralph the ECM has nothing to shift, not even one ensemble member Charlie Brown GFS got a gender change and is now holding the football Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 3' of snow in parts of VA on the 12Z GFS. Plenty of time to shift. Yup, 18z shifted it south. 2' in North Carolina. Last four runs for 00z Sunday: 00z lp in Tennesee, 06z lp off Myrtle Beach, 12z Tallahassee, 18z off coast of Daytona. Not great trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I'm pulling the white flag out of storage but will wait another 24 hours before raising it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Looking like our best shot at snow will be with the first wave and not the caboose wave later in the weekend. So, while confidence for some wintry weather during the Jan 6-9 period is still above avg, I'm losing confidence in the trailing wave being able to produce for us later during that period, but rather a lighter event Friday morning. The kick in the gut is that I was gaining confidence that a snow threat in the deep South was losing potential assuming the seasonal trend of a SE Ridge would prevent such a storm from happening and shifting it North. But now at this hour it appears the South and part of the Southern mid-Atlantic are ground zero for a possible major snow event. So for now, going to focus on one wave at a time with the first light snow threat being late Thursday overnight and Friday morning. Ensembles are in decent agreement with this as are several of the op models. Doesn't look major but some light accumulations are certainly possible. We should accept any snow we can muster at this point....the pattern has been blah. And I hate looking too far ahead but there are hints on the horizon that the entire nation may experience coast to coast AN January thaw-like conditions as the month progresses. But first things first, lets see if things stay positive for later this week for something....anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Eff USC. That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Eff USC. That is all. Epic ballgame for sure though. Instant classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 That guy that said a 2012 winter was upcoming, think it is Isotherm, is leading the pack right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Holy crap did the Euro just take huge steps towards last nights GFS weenie run. Like wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Holy crap did the Euro just take huge steps towards last nights GFS weenie run. Like wow.I didn't see it that way at all. Euro op looks like it adjusted to try and come to a solution somewhere between the GFS and yesterdays 12z Euro. EPS still have zero reflection of any storm...just strong HP over the East. I guess the one thing the caboose wave still has going is it's slowed down on the guidance that has it and we have 6 days still to adjust, but I'm not feeling it right now. However, one wave at a time.....I still think Friday morning will give some light accumulation in part of our region, enough to whiten the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 Wxsim with 6z NAM/GFS data has 0.67" of rain falling today here in NW Chesco. With the cold FROPA on Wednesday it indicates temperatures will remain below freezing from 10pm tomorrow evening through 10am on Tuesday the 10th. Only snow it currently is a little light snow Thursday into Friday AM with 0.2" of accumulation. At least it will be cold....starting to feel like the more traditional philly area winters of my childhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Mid month dead of winter looks like a stretch of shorts weather and tiki torches lit outside is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 28 minutes ago, RedSky said: Mid month dead of winter looks like a stretch of shorts weather and tiki torches lit outside is coming. Just the norm for these days, what's new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 31 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said: Just the norm for these days, what's new. It's one of those snow in the Sahara desert/Atlanta Georgia winters. I'm done with the Cohen Siberian snow in October index thingy, meaningless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 42 minutes ago, RedSky said: It's one of those snow in the Sahara desert/Atlanta Georgia winters. I'm done with the Cohen Siberian snow in October index thingy, meaningless. Let's be real, next fall we will all be checking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Mid month dead of winter looks like a stretch of shorts weather and tiki torches lit outside is coming. Nice! Sounds like another drop in my heating oil monthly budget coming again soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 27 minutes ago, wederwarrior said: Let's be real, next fall we will all be checking it. I made a promise to myself at the end of last winter to check models only "occasionally" this season when a possible threat is real. I haven't been following every up to the minute model this year....just pop in here and there for an update. I pissed away so much time last season. Total waste of time unless it's your occupation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Does anybody have an idea what the 12z Euro showed for Cape May? Sorry to ask, but someone said it was like 8" for OCMD and i am not sure how sharp the cutoff is. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Does anybody have an idea what the 12z Euro showed for Cape May? Sorry to ask, but someone said it was like 8" for OCMD and i am not sure how sharp the cutoff is. Thanks.South Jersey very much in the game for the Sunday system. UKMET and Euro are big hits.....more later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Thanks Ralph. Those are two good models to have on your side. Nice not worrying about temps for once. This could be a 1/30/10 type deal. I'm keeping expectations in check and really just want to get on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 22 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm pulling the white flag out of storage but will wait another 24 hours before raising it. Ralph, you've hung in there well for this one. I think you should go down with the ship, or ride it into a sandbar (that would be for a dusting). Seriously, this has been a teaser and I'd be happy with an inch of snow between Thursday and Monday. Of course I wouldn't turn down more than that :-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 The weekend still has a ways to go. the system hasn't even been sampled yet. hard to write this off a 40 mile swing in the right direction will give us a weenie pleaser. the 10 day blizzard run has made you people soft. hard to make a definite call until 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 hour ago, Redmorninglight said: Does anybody have an idea what the 12z Euro showed for Cape May? Sorry to ask, but someone said it was like 8" for OCMD and i am not sure how sharp the cutoff is. Thanks. I would check a combo of the MA forum as much as this one due to your location. But to answer your question, you're in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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