snowwors2 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 (Reminder, it's VERY early in our "ususual" snow season folks!) And, The only thing worse than "not getting snow"...is constantly reading about "not getting snow"!! We've been through this before but...Let's temper our expectations and our early frustrations/"fail" calls until each of these "possibilities" gets to within at least 72 hours!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 JMA is a track from the Gulf Coast to W NC then redevelops near Hatteras and heads NNE/NE. Again, I'm not sure why the massive jump on the Euro between 12z yesterday and 0z last night. I'm not sure if we hit a sparse data area or something, or perhaps it now has the 'right' idea....who knows at this point? But the fact "the world's most accurate model" can make such drastic shifts from one run to the next should raise a red flag. If guidance can jump one direction 7 days out it can also jump the other way (tho once we head to a bad solution it is admittedly more difficult to reverse it seems). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 1 hour ago, JTA66 said: Not saying suppression isn't a possible outcome, but I can't think of a storm we've had that wasn't modeled as suppressed at some point or another along the line. Or let me put it this way ... I'd rather be here at this stage than looking at some big, wrapped-up lakes cutter, or be in the bullseye a week out. So true...I always laugh at folks on here (apologies to Red Sky) that for some reason believe what a computer model spits out 7 days before a storm is somehow rooted in reality. I will always remember the Blizzard of 1996 when all models had snow making it no further north than the Delmarva five days before....If you want it to snow in this area....you want a suppressed look - a week out - heck I expect to see a suppressed look to a storm 3 days before. I can count on one hand big storms that missed this area to the Southeast. Although there is no such thing as a north trend.....models will "catch on" within a couple days. If you love snowstorms hope the models show an "out to sea" solution!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 So true...I always laugh at folks on here (apologies to Red Sky) that for some reason believe what a computer model spits out 7 days before a storm is somehow rooted in reality. I will always remember the Blizzard of 1996 when all models had snow making it no further north than the Delmarva five days before....If you want it to snow in this area....you want a suppressed look - a week out - heck I expect to see a suppressed look to a storm 3 days before. I can count on one hand big storms that missed this area to the Southeast. Although there is no such thing as a north trend.....models will "catch on" within a couple days. If you love snowstorms hope the models show an "out to sea" solution!!This is essentially the norm for us around here. We rarely, if ever, get a cutter 7-days out to transition to a coastal storm. I'm sure it has happened but certainly it's the exception and not the rule. On the other hand, I can't count the times we've gotten a coastal storm threat show up on guidance 6-10 days out then suddenly vanish for several runs 4-7 days out, only to re-emerge again once inside of 96 hours and give us a decent snowfall. Will that be the case here? Who knows? But I certainly wouldn't be dismissing a 7-day threat so quickly based on a few models. Even the ensembles are struggling within 5-7 days lately more notably in the past few days (see NAO/AO/PNA forecasts) and I believe this is in part to a pattern change that is going to begin around mid-week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Sometimes it's best to go all negative and angry because it pisses off the weather gods and gets things moving. CMC and JMA like the first wave, going to find out soon if there is any merit in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Would be shocked if this doesn't end up further north. Im with Ralph in that I don't think the SE Ridge is going to completely flatten and expect the models to push the threat further north in the coming days. Ive seen over the years that the models show the SE ridge being progged to comepletely break down many times in the moderate long range and it being overdone. I think it will be more pronounced in the coming runs just going off observations from the last 15 years of following weather and the models. Then again it could just be one of those winters where nothing goes right but overall I'm liking this set up for at least a minor snowfall and honestly a changeover can not be ruled out at this point. I wouldn't be surprised at this either. Way too far out to be thinking that this is definitely suppression as there are several indicators that this won't be the case. First real threat of the year imo. I think we ll see signs of the ridge being stronger either tomorrow night or Monday, until then the models are just noise. In fact if they showed a hit in this range I'd say almost certainly it would be a changeover event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 23 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Would be shocked if this doesn't end up further north. Im with Ralph in that I don't think the SE Ridge is going to completely flatten and expect the models to push the threat further north in the coming days. Ive seen over the years that the models show the SE ridge being progged to comepletely break down many times in the moderate long range and it being overdone. I think it will be more pronounced in the coming runs just going off observations from the last 15 years of following weather and the models. Then again it could just be one of those winters where nothing goes right but overall I'm liking this set up for at least a minor snowfall and honestly a changeover can not be ruled out at this point. I wouldn't be surprised at this either. Way too far out to be thinking that this is definitely suppression as there are several indicators that this won't be the case. First real threat of the year imo. I think we ll see signs of the ridge being stronger either tomorrow night or Monday, until then the models are just noise. In fact if they showed a hit in this range I'd say almost certainly it would be a changeover event. I'm to the point where I assume it will end up North...especially with so much time/model runs to go. I think we're "ok" for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Dippin dot snow and 41F. 3rd dippin dot snow this season what the heck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Happy New Year!January 6-9 still bears watching. Looking like first wave early in that period will probably be torn apart in the fast flow and sheared out well South but will keep an eye on it. However, as the flow buckles the followup wave (caboose) will more likely become our producer later in the period mentioned. 6Z GFS shows this nicely next Sunday-Monday with a moderate snow event in much of the region. There has been some support for this on some other models and ens as well. This time, the Euro says no which is different. Maybe Lucy won't pull the football away this time? At least we have something to watch and its not a completely boring pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 12z ECM has nada for the upcoming week. Not seeing any posts about Lucy's cousin the Canadian which i don't follow so that must be a dud too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 37 minutes ago, RedSky said: 12z ECM has nada for the upcoming week. Not seeing any posts about Lucy's cousin the Canadian which i don't follow so that must be a dud too. Pretty much. Our pattern change is starting to resemble December's 1st 2 weeks as far as sensible weather for this area goes. At this point, I'll take an inch of snow and like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 22 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: Pretty much. Our pattern change is starting to resemble December's 1st 2 weeks as far as sensible weather for this area goes. At this point, I'll take an inch of snow and like it. Well the analogs said a good first half of winter and that didn't workout so hopefully the mild February part also fails. But hey strong agreement on a rocking March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 1, 2017 Author Share Posted January 1, 2017 Beautiful New Year's Day here in Sea Isle City to start the year High 53.9 - back in East Nantmeal 48.1 - just finished watching the birds game...as I always say the most losing Philadelphia team in my lifetime. Only team since color TV in Philly to have won absolutely nothing....an embarrassing franchise in every respect. Yet my Iggle fan brethren can always find a silver lining. The truth this team won a game against a JV Cowboy Team and it was way way too difficult. I am not impressed and am not optimistic. As our ex-Mayor Ed Rendell just said...only 43 days till Pitchers and Catchers report for Phillies Spring Training. Kind of sad....but when did this town move from being a 4 sport town to honestly only caring about 2 teams the Phils and the Eagles. Of course we are all eternally grateful to the Phillies winning in 2008...otherwise anyone under 40 years old has almost no memory of any winning team in this town!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said: Beautiful New Year's Day here in Sea Isle City to start the year High 53.9 - back in East Nantmeal 48.1 - just finished watching the birds game...as I always say the most losing Philadelphia team in my lifetime. Only team since color TV in Philly to have won absolutely nothing....an embarrassing franchise in every respect. Yet my Iggle fan brethren can always find a silver lining. The truth this team won a game against a JV Cowboy Team and it was way way too difficult. I am not impressed and am not optimistic. As our ex-Mayor Ed Rendell just said...only 43 days till Pitchers and Catchers report for Phillies Spring Training. Kind of sad....but when did this town move from being a 4 sport town to honestly only caring about 2 teams the Phils and the Eagles. Of course we are all eternally grateful to the Phillies winning in 2008...otherwise anyone under 40 years old has almost no memory of any winning team in this town!! Color TV was around before 1960, so incorrect. and this town isn't a two sport town. Sixers/Flyers will both win championships before eagles or phillies and I enjoy watching the sixers every night even before Simmons has played a single game. And the phillies are far and away the worst team in this town. Christ, the Eagles just started a rookie QB on a dreadful talentless team and still win 7 games. At least 2 games more than most thought they would win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Color TV was around before 1960, so incorrect. and this town isn't a two sport town. Sixers/Flyers will both win championships before eagles or phillies and I enjoy watching the sixers every night even before Simmons has played a single game. And the phillies are far and away the worst team in this town. Christ, the Eagles just started a rookie QB on a dreadful talentless team and still win 7 games. At least 2 games more than most thought they would win.Agreed with this 100%. Going to be interesting to see whether the Sixers or the Flyers win their respective championship first. Flyers are starting to gel....they have the young talent and starting to come together finally but still might be a veteran leader away from a true Cup run. The Sixers are close too from breaking out. They need to lose the negative players that don't want to be here and build on the young talent they have. I think NBA is a little different than hockey in that a team can go from worst to first like the flip of a switch. Not sure why that is. Maybe someone else knows? Hockey seems to take a couple seasons it seems for a turnaround. The Eagles are several pieces away from being a true contender. They have the right qb, but they are a mish-mosh otherwise on offense with a feisty but too small RB that isn't an every down player, the O Line is mediocre and without Johnson are below avg, our wide receivers are below avg to put it nicely. Defense is 'ok'...average. Going to be tough for them to compete the next few years with the Cowboys clearly approaching a dynasty-quality caliber team. Not saying they can't, just going to be tough. The Phillies just suck. There is no core to that team whatsoever. There is nobody to build around. Franco showed some promise early on but I'm not sold on him yet. Their pitching is 'hopeful'....Nola shows some promise. Now if that Trout guy keeps pushing to come to Philly to be near his hometown and the Phillies open their wallets, they could potentially have something there. But until they spend the money to land a young superstar to build around, they will be a .500 team AT BEST for several years. There is little that impresses me with their farm system either at the moment. In the early-mid 2000s you could clearly see they were building through their farm system.....Hamels, Utley, Howard. They don't have anything like that right now. They are a trainwreck to put it lightly. So I echo hazwoper....Go Flyers! Go Sixers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 https://www.google.com/amp/www.thegoodphight.com/platform/amp/2016/11/3/13488646/phillies-have-top-minor-league-system-in-all-of-baseball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 10 minutes ago, snowwors2 said: https://www.google.com/amp/www.thegoodphight.com/platform/amp/2016/11/3/13488646/phillies-have-top-minor-league-system-in-all-of-baseball Sounds good and all but pitching wins in baseball and the Phils are very limited in that area. -Sixers have talent/young and more high draft picks to come. -Birds have Wentz and really not that far off if they can surround him. -Flyers have talent w/defensive prospects. I'd put the Phils last to win a title. Sixers, Birds and Flyers a pick'em who will win a championship first. What about Villanova? Ranked #1 and won a championship last year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 The simple fact is the Sixers have the rookie of the year that is clearly better than any other rookie and is probably the #3 center in all of basketball AND that is without their current #1 pick that is supposed to be a generational talent having played a single game. Add to that possibly a #1/2 pick this year and the Lakers #5/6/7.... sixers are gonna be a remarkable team Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 23 minutes ago, hazwoper said: The simple fact is the Sixers have the rookie of the year that is clearly better than any other rookie and is probably the #3 center in all of basketball AND that is without their current #1 pick that is supposed to be a generational talent having played a single game. Add to that possibly a #1/2 pick this year and the Lakers #5/6/7.... sixers are gonna be a remarkable team I'm more worried about the coach and management. Really want Brett Brown out... Ok. Back to our upcoming blizzard next week! And our current freezing rain advisory: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: I'm more worried about the coach and management. Really want Brett Brown out... Ok. Back to our upcoming blizzard next week! And our current freezing rain advisory: Worried about getting to work tomorrow morning. Enjoyed today's nice weather hiking to the summit of Monocacy Hill in Amity township. My guess for next championship is eagles, sixers, flyers, phillies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, zenmsav6810 said: Worried about getting to work tomorrow morning. Enjoyed today's nice weather hiking to the summit of Monocacy Hill in Amity township. My guess for next championship is eagles, sixers, flyers, phillies. My temp is down to 29.2F and precip moving in from the SW. Should be here in the wee hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 0z GFS is tempting to fall for but nearly a week out attm‼️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Best GFS digital snow run since the blizzard happy new year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 27.7F ice is going to be ugly in the early morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 10 minutes ago, RedSky said: 27.7F ice is going to be ugly in the early morning. No such worries here in Media Delaware County 37f cloudy freezing rain...right?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 16" Monmouth bullseye on the 0Z GFS ding ding ding we got a winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: No such worries here in Media Delaware County 37f cloudy freezing rain...right?? Ice will catch them off guard still in a daze from the festivities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, RedSky said: 16" Monmouth bullseye on the 0Z GFS ding ding ding we got a winner. Hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 16" Monmouth bullseye on the 0Z GFS ding ding ding we got a winner. Keep angering the snow Gods please :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Not good to be in the bullseye at this range but for s&g:The caboose wave in this progression looks like the winner. Jan 6-9 period will produce. Models still in some disagreement as to which wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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