Rtd208 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Temp on the rise pretty quickly, up to 30 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 33 with light-Mod. Snow at the moment, Im sure a changeover is not to far away DP/27 winds S@6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Long way out there but something to watch (yes there are potential minor events prior to this but those merely setup the pattern). Reasons I am even bothering to mention this potential between Jan 7-Jan 9 is because 1) it has consistently popped up on the ens means as a threat, 2) teleconnections are favorable (-WPO and ridge extension on/near West Coast, NAO dip at the same time albeit transient but decent look, ridging attempting to extend poleward as a -NAO, weak(?) SE Ridge) and 3) the weekend rule, of course :-)Things to keep in mind without delving too much into detail at this range: this has popped up periodically on op models in recent runs but showing up more consistently now. The signal for a Southern stream storm has been very strong with slp coming out of the Western GOM. The general idea has been for a "Southern Slider" or a suppressed system with a decent and cold sprawled out HP to the North.Why bother mentioning it as a threat for our area? Meteorology is not modelology.....just because a model says x,y,z doesn't mean it is right....there are alot of other factors to consider. Trying to keep this brief as lead time is still 9 days or so, but when you see consistent signals on the ens at this range, it is at least worth some discussion. Reason I think we need to watch in our region....the SE Ridge. That feature has been prominent for quite a while now and has verified stronger than progged time and time again. I see no reason for this to be any different here. Even tho La Nina is weakening, it is still a dominant feature of the overall pattern. Models are showing the SE Ridge almost vanishing completely....I dont buy it. The SE Ridge will come in as a weak feature still as time approaches and this will in turn cause our slp to track farther North. More complicated than that but I discussed more than I would like already at this range. Point is, dont think this system is going to be so suppressed with no SE Ridge that Atlanta and coastal SC are ground zero like some models show. If any storm will trend North, I feel it will be this one. Euro op is getting nearer the idea that Im favoring at this time yet still not strong enough with the SE Ridge imo. Have a great day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Long way out there but something to watch (yes there are potential minor events prior to this but those merely setup the pattern). Reasons I am even bothering to mention this potential between Jan 7-Jan 9 is because 1) it has consistently popped up on the ens means as a threat, 2) teleconnections are favorable (-WPO and ridge extension on/near West Coast, NAO dip at the same time albeit transient but decent look, ridging attempting to extend poleward as a -NAO, weak(?) SE Ridge) and 3) the weekend rule, of course :-) Things to keep in mind without delving too much into detail at this range: this has popped up periodically on op models in recent runs but showing up more consistently now. The signal for a Southern stream storm has been very strong with slp coming out of the Western GOM. The general idea has been for a "Southern Slider" or a suppressed system with a decent and cold sprawled out HP to the North. Why bother mentioning it as a threat for our area? Meteorology is not modelology.....just because a model says x,y,z doesn't mean it is right....there are alot of other factors to consider. Trying to keep this brief as lead time is still 9 days or so, but when you see consistent signals on the ens at this range, it is at least worth some discussion. Reason I think we need to watch in our region....the SE Ridge. That feature has been prominent for quite a while now and has verified stronger than progged time and time again. I see no reason for this to be any different here. Even tho La Nina is weakening, it is still a dominant feature of the overall pattern. Models are showing the SE Ridge almost vanishing completely....I dont buy it. The SE Ridge will come in as a weak feature still as time approaches and this will in turn cause our slp to track farther North. More complicated than that but I discussed more than I would like already at this range. Point is, dont think this system is going to be so suppressed with no SE Ridge that Atlanta and coastal SC are ground zero like some models show. If any storm will trend North, I feel it will be this one. Euro op is getting nearer the idea that Im favoring at this time yet still not strong enough with the SE Ridge imo. Have a great day! Let's hope it works out cause it looks to blow torch after that wave kicks out and the block says bye bye. not looking like a great Jan at this point I'm afraid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Long way out there but something to watch (yes there are potential minor events prior to this but those merely setup the pattern). Reasons I am even bothering to mention this potential between Jan 7-Jan 9 is because 1) it has consistently popped up on the ens means as a threat, 2) teleconnections are favorable (-WPO and ridge extension on/near West Coast, NAO dip at the same time albeit transient but decent look, ridging attempting to extend poleward as a -NAO, weak(?) SE Ridge) and 3) the weekend rule, of course :-) Things to keep in mind without delving too much into detail at this range: this has popped up periodically on op models in recent runs but showing up more consistently now. The signal for a Southern stream storm has been very strong with slp coming out of the Western GOM. The general idea has been for a "Southern Slider" or a suppressed system with a decent and cold sprawled out HP to the North. Why bother mentioning it as a threat for our area? Meteorology is not modelology.....just because a model says x,y,z doesn't mean it is right....there are alot of other factors to consider. Trying to keep this brief as lead time is still 9 days or so, but when you see consistent signals on the ens at this range, it is at least worth some discussion. Reason I think we need to watch in our region....the SE Ridge. That feature has been prominent for quite a while now and has verified stronger than progged time and time again. I see no reason for this to be any different here. Even tho La Nina is weakening, it is still a dominant feature of the overall pattern. Models are showing the SE Ridge almost vanishing completely....I dont buy it. The SE Ridge will come in as a weak feature still as time approaches and this will in turn cause our slp to track farther North. More complicated than that but I discussed more than I would like already at this range. Point is, dont think this system is going to be so suppressed with no SE Ridge that Atlanta and coastal SC are ground zero like some models show. If any storm will trend North, I feel it will be this one. Euro op is getting nearer the idea that Im favoring at this time yet still not strong enough with the SE Ridge imo. Have a great day! Long way off, but this is what I was referring to. As the lead time begins to shorten, expect the SE Ridge to be more pumped yielding a farther N storm than currently progged. This will not be a Southeast snowstorm imho as some guidance has been alluding to. The 12z GFS OP just took a big jump N and the SE Ridging is clearly more evident: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Digital snow irt the Jan 7-9 threat. CMC sees the SE Ridge. Hopefully we dont get too much of a good thing and have this thing end up cutting West lol. I wouldnt be surprised based on seasonal trends and La Nina teleconnections. Btw Euro nudged North too. Southern snowstorm idea is going up in flames faster than a dried out Christmas tree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Picked up 0.34" of rain for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Digital snow irt the Jan 7-9 threat. CMC sees the SE Ridge. Hopefully we dont get too much of a good thing and have this thing end up cutting West lol. I wouldnt be surprised based on seasonal trends and La Nina teleconnections. Btw Euro nudged North too. Southern snowstorm idea is going up in flames faster than a dried out Christmas tree. Two days ago it was a crushed wave in the Carolina's, yesterday a DC storm and today south of Philly is flirting with a changeover. See a trend? Everything this season has trended north and the reason I am not investing in this one early. Plenty of time for this to become an interior threat only, or snow to rain with the primary west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 I think Lucy is back again..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 GFS looks more or less ideal, too bad it's still fantasy land. As Ralph said, signal has somewhat been there for a while though, so it bears watching. I won't get too attached at this stage. At least the "heatwave" should be rather short-lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Very sketchy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Very sketchy...All we know at this point is there is a signal for unsettled weather Jan 6-9. Whether that is 1 storm, a series of waves, a Southern slider, a hit for us, or a track West is tbd. My only thoughts at this range remain the same...that the Southeast snowstorm hinted at for a few runs were bogus and the SE Ridge would show up as lead time shortens with the actual solution being one of the other options I mentioned. My biggest worry at this point is a solution that tracks too far N and/or West following the seasonal trend. Long way to go with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 based on that massive shift north and the fact that the modeled -NAO is very transient I would suspect that the -NAO is poorly model and that this will in fact trend to a west cutter track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 This is true....I fell on my ass taking out the trash this morning around 4:30am. http://tinyurl.com/zq2feld Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 The winds are starting to crank as that low pulls away, temp up to 38.7F but feels colder than that. Maybe with a little luck some of us will see a passing flurry today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 ^ Yes, just got gas and the winds are cranking. With the winds and overcast skies, it's quite cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 it was all snow here yesterday. 4" total. another heavy squall currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just went thru a good snow squall on Route 347 in South Jersey driving home from Cape May. 41F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Thinking on potential system next weekend remains unchanged after 6z and 12z runs. Two-wave system with first wave reinforcing cold Jan 5-6ish....slp develops on stationary trailing front in Deep South near GOMex. Developing slp heads NE/ENE giving us the potential for wintry weather next Sat and/or Sun. SE Ridge showing up now on LR ops which should nudge system North of current progs. New Euro is a really solid hit. Needs to be watched....long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 It's early in the winter for us so I'm rooting for a weaker more suppressed solution at this distance. 41 degree ocean still so need the low to track well to our south. A stronger storm would be good for ski areas so I'm good with either outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Had some flurries in Warrington earlier. Not too exciting but better than the shutout over the holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Hideous turn of fortune for what was being projected as a storm threat next weekend. North trend is now a threat to Atlanta, difficult for us to salvage now. Seasonable cold, cold rain and torches and snow in the southeast an 80's winter staple. The wheels have all but fallen off the first half of this winter. Becoming a fairly substantial "winter weather" drought now dating back to post blizzard almost a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Hideous turn of fortune for what was being projected as a storm threat next weekend. North trend is now a threat to Atlanta, difficult for us to salvage now. Seasonable cold, cold rain and torches and snow in the southeast an 80's winter staple. The wheels have all but fallen off the first half of this winter. Becoming a fairly substantial "winter weather" drought now dating back to post blizzard almost a year. GFS and Euro notorious for losing and/or flattening/squashing storms at this range. With that said CMC increased accumulation in our region. NAVGEM farther North as well. Not tossing out this threat until at least Tuesday. And I don't think anyone was touting this as a monster storm. In any event, we're still 7 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 The Canadian at day 7 this winter has me at like 18" so far, my digital shovel is getting good mileage in the early going. The pattern incoming day 10 looks bleak Ralph, not too far away from the talk of salvaging winter on the back end. I had confidence going in that we would pull off a decent first half of winter this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 The Canadian is on an island showing a front running wave day 6. No support. Ukmet is even more suppressive day 6 than the GFS. Watch the ECM come in with a storm now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 ECM has a 1036 high pressure parked over Virginia now next Saturday. How much snow Mr Blutarsky 0.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Failed snow chances post blizzard, major drought, lack of thunderstorms then the cold comes without snow in winters first half. We are the Cleveland Browns of weather now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 20 minutes ago, RedSky said: Failed snow chances post blizzard, major drought, lack of thunderstorms then the cold comes without snow in winters first half. We are the Cleveland Browns of weather now. I think the lack of T-Storms is/was more surprising. We had a period where DP's were in the 70s constantly and didn't receive squat T-storms....amazing. More times than not we get screwed on snow so not all that surprising. That being said, I wouldn't cancel next weekend. I wouldn't mind just a 1-3/2-4 type event to get the ball rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Not saying suppression isn't a possible outcome, but I can't think of a storm we've had that wasn't modeled as suppressed at some point or another along the line. Or let me put it this way ... I'd rather be here at this stage than looking at some big, wrapped-up lakes cutter, or be in the bullseye a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 The almost always progressive NAVGEM really amped up. Rain storm.....cuts through WV then redevelops off the coast. This one is losing it's footing from the majority but there are several options on the table and this is still 7 days away. I wouldn't write it off completely until at least Tuesday. People continue to say the seasonal trends rule. If that is the case then I would not be surprised to see the SE Ridge reappear as we get closer and possibly put part of our region into accumulating snow. I'm not in denial, honestly, but I just don't buy that extreme reversal and total suppression from one model suite to the next. Not looking good at this hour but plenty of time to go with this one. Just 24 hours ago we were looking at a SECS/MECS (for a few runs actually) on the Euro then absolutely nothing like someone flipped a switch? In not buying it. I would wager that come Thursday we are talking about it being a closer call and wondering if once onshore out West it gets sampled better etc etc. Just mho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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