anthonyweather Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Allentown is 5-6" for the "big" storm on 0z euro, a good example of monumental screw potential we have to work with. ABE is .80-1" liquid on Euro. Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 6z GFS has like 1.8" liquid for Wilmington with no apparent temperature issues at any level. That would be insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 ABE is .80-1" liquid on Euro. Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk 0z ECM I was looking at included today's QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 6z GFS has like 1.8" liquid for Wilmington with no apparent temperature issues at any level. That would be insane. To add a bit its showing 1.5" of that falling in a single 6 hour period. That is hard to imagine. Would topple any past March storm locally including '93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 0z euro ensembles and 6z GFS perfect for us. Individual model perturbations are going to vary from good to dicey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 And now I am starting to buy into to tuesday storm. I can't even tell you how many times I have been disappointed this far out. I am not expecting a total crush, but at this point my disappointment bar has been set to about 7". I have a bad feeling this ends in tears for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 Current Wxsim with 6z data only showing a little 17" to 24" snow event for Tuesday.... Monday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A chance of snow in the evening, then snow likely after midnight. Low 27. Wind chill ranging from 15 to 28. Wind east-southeast around 6 mph, gusting to 17 mph, in the evening, becoming 13 mph, gusting to 24 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 1 and 2 inches. Snow accumulation 12 to 16 inches. Tuesday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming mostly cloudy in the afternoon. Snow likely in the morning, then a slight chance of snow in the afternoon. High 32. Wind chill ranging from 15 to 26. Wind north-northeast around 17 mph, gusting to 24 mph, in the morning, becoming 9 mph, gusting to 19 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around an inch. Snow accumulation 5 to 8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Crazy question I am sure for those of you who know this arena well...but can someone tell me what effects a barrier island, specifically Brigantine, will experience in a storm like Tuesday. We just bought a home 1/2 block to the beach down there where my daughter and 3 friends will be staying for their Spring Break Monday through Thursday next week. I was wondering how to prep them? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 hours ago, SP said: Nothing worse than being in the crosshairs 4-5 out. You know what's coming. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk yup, especially with miller B's. Miller A's are a bit different as I've seen them be locked in pretty far out in advance but the chances of a Miller B being locked in this far...nada. i'm mentally prepared for this to either be a cold rain and come west or go east and be a scrape. would be pretty shocked if it just holds serve from here on out. i caution everyone to do the same. could see another march 2001... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Flakes got larger.... 32.4F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 12 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Flakes got larger.... 32.4F Actually really coming down at a solid mod pace now...may coat the streets would be my goal? 34.4F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 31.3f Heavy snow! 3.5" total (BBQ side table) 1"+ (past hour) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 12z GFS brings the rain/snow line into SEPA at the storms zenith after crushing us, nice run I so much don't want an outer benchmark storm for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 CMC is East and barely clips SE PA. You cant make this stuff up. Lucy is looking for revenge after today. I shouldnt have eased the pressure on her. Im coming for you girl.....that Comcast building has your name written all over it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 not liking the trend at all closer to the coast. gfs changes to rain here after 8-10 inches. but any further west though and this turns into a majority cold, cold rain and little to no snow for SE PA. looking more and more like an interior event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: CMC is East and barely clips SE PA. You cant make this stuff up. Lucy is looking for revenge after today. I shouldnt have eased the pressure on her. Im coming for you girl.....that Comcast building has your name written all over it! would much much rather it trend east than west. nothing worse than 33 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 UK is west.. a lot of rain for SE PA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 CMC loves the January 1987 look. Might have to pull out my dvd (vhs originally) of news footage from Action News to reminisce. Im braced for a Western based fail.....kind of expecting that. Not prepared for a miss to the Southeast though.....this archived footage will help soften the blow in the event the CMC is actually right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 UKMET is a coastal hugger, though not as west as the GFS probably fine west of I95. Can't believe people are going at it over the GFS and CMC runs, storm doesn't crash the west coast until Saturday evening so won't get best sampled until 0z Sunday runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 UK is west.. a lot of rain for SE PA...The western guidance makes much more sense based on pattern evolution and mid-March climatology. We are trending towards a bad place with 3.5 days to go still but cant say it wasnt coming. My timeframe for going all-in on this threat is 0z Monday, no sooner. Im still on the sidelines and have my eyes firmly locked on Lucy taking the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Pretty damn cold out there (15.4F)...and almost slipped on my ass going in the car. Probably funny as hell if someone was watching...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Check out Euro day 7 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 I had Lucy in my grasp but she escaped! Be on the lookout for her....she is apparently messing with the LR models for the period around March 24. Only 10 days out. What could possibly go wrong? Discuss: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 27 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I had Lucy in my grasp but she escaped! Be on the lookout for her....she is apparently messing with the LR models for the period around March 24. Only 10 days out. What could possibly go wrong? Discuss: The path that storm takes it will most likely be an Apps runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, shemATC said: The path that storm takes it will most likely be an Apps runner Front end thump or nah? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 40 minutes ago, shemATC said: The path that storm takes it will most likely be an Apps runner after today I hope it ends up as a plains cutter. I'm officially done with winter for this year, bring on severe season and spring weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Not buying it, headed to NYC on the 25th so hope it is a cutter and rain. I'm done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 where was this pattern December January and February? watch this trough linger until may Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Sleet is in my forecast twice in the next week, hilarious. Oh yeah look out for April this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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