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EPA/NJ/DE General Winter Discussions


ChescoWx

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6z GFS has like 1.8" liquid for Wilmington with no apparent temperature issues at any level.  That would be insane.

To add a bit its showing 1.5" of that falling in a single 6 hour period.  That is hard to imagine.  Would topple any past March storm locally including '93.

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And now I am starting to buy into to tuesday storm. I can't even tell you how many times I have been disappointed this far out. I am not expecting a total crush, but at this point my disappointment bar has been set to about 7". 

I have a bad feeling this ends in tears for me...

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Current Wxsim with 6z data only showing a little 17" to 24" snow event for Tuesday....

Monday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A
 chance of snow in the evening, then snow likely after midnight. Low 27. Wind
 chill ranging from 15 to 28. Wind east-southeast around 6 mph, gusting to 17
 mph, in the evening, becoming 13 mph, gusting to 24 mph, after midnight. Chance
 of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 1
 and 2 inches. Snow accumulation 12 to 16 inches.
 
 Tuesday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming mostly cloudy in the afternoon.
 Snow likely in the morning, then a slight chance of snow in the afternoon. High
 32. Wind chill ranging from 15 to 26. Wind north-northeast around 17 mph,
 gusting to 24 mph, in the morning, becoming 9 mph, gusting to 19 mph, in the
 afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent)
 mostly around an inch. Snow accumulation 5 to 8 inches.

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Crazy question I am sure for those of you who know this arena well...but can someone tell me what effects a barrier island, specifically Brigantine, will experience in a storm like Tuesday.  We just bought a home 1/2 block to the beach down there where my daughter and 3 friends will be staying for their Spring Break Monday through Thursday next week.  I was wondering how to prep them?  Thanks.

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4 hours ago, SP said:

Nothing worse than being in the crosshairs 4-5 out. You know what's coming.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

yup, especially with miller B's. Miller A's are a bit different as I've seen them be locked in pretty far out in advance but the chances of a Miller B being locked in this far...nada. i'm mentally prepared for this to either be a cold rain and come west or go east and be a scrape. would be pretty shocked if it just holds serve from here on out. i caution everyone to do the same. could see another march 2001...

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

CMC is East and barely clips SE PA. You cant make this stuff up. Lucy is looking for revenge after today. I shouldnt have eased the pressure on her. Im coming for you girl.....that Comcast building has your name written all over it!

 

would much much rather it trend east than west. nothing worse than 33 and rain.

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CMC loves the January 1987 look. Might have to pull out my dvd (vhs originally) of news footage from Action News to reminisce. Im braced for a Western based fail.....kind of expecting that. Not prepared for a miss to the Southeast though.....this archived footage will help soften the blow in the event the CMC is actually right.


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UKMET is a coastal hugger, though not as west as the GFS probably fine west of I95. Can't believe people are going at it over the GFS and CMC runs, storm doesn't crash the west coast until Saturday evening so won't get best sampled until 0z Sunday runs. 

 

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UK is west.. a lot of rain for SE PA...


The western guidance makes much more sense based on pattern evolution and mid-March climatology. We are trending towards a bad place with 3.5 days to go still but cant say it wasnt coming. My timeframe for going all-in on this threat is 0z Monday, no sooner. Im still on the sidelines and have my eyes firmly locked on Lucy taking the field.
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27 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I had Lucy in my grasp but she escaped! Be on the lookout for her....she is apparently messing with the LR models for the period around March 24. Only 10 days out. What could possibly go wrong? Discuss:
gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_41.png

The path that storm takes it will most likely be an Apps runner 

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