snowwors2 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Great recap Ralph... larry cosgrove is a friend of mine and was a poster back then and turned me on to ne.weather board. I was mostly a lurker and recall the disaster all to well... not this time around....this time it's gonna be different...lol!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: When I got into internet weather in the mid nineties it was the ne.weather bulletin board and there was a small group of maybe a dozen of us that used to "chat" on mirc (#neweather). One of my comrades Marcus (screen name Vortmax) eventually migrated us over to #easternweather on chat in the late nineties and finally started the easternuswx forum. I believe in March 2001 our small group had migrated to the eastern forum iirc....my years and the social media expansion all kind of blend together during that era. But regardless, we were all in tight contact leading up to March 2001. DT was in our crew, Ian from the MA subforum, Scott Simard, Jerry from the New England subforum, a few others that were also red taggers or at least knew their stuff. We all had access to the models at the time and saw the threat. We saw the numbers guidance was spitting out. We also knew we were walking a tightrope down this way as there were subtle signals this had high bust potential and could fall apart for us. None of us were sure what was going to happen as it was never a lock. It wasnt until Bolaris issued "the scroll" that I bought into the seriousness and the potential. I remember almost immediately after it scrolled across I think the AVN model came in and something was clearly off. Phasing wasnt happening as early....timing was off....totals were cut significantly and iirc it was more due to mixing being shown more than anything. The 0z suite came in that night and it was game over. I remember guidance showing the storm exploding too late and specifically remember hoping the AVN wraparound of 10" would be our saving grace. The rest is history. I met Marcus at the Eastern Get together in Baltimore, I was also on ne.weather, there was a real nut on there from Mt Pocono, I am trying to remember his name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I met Marcus at the Eastern Get together in Baltimore, I was also on ne.weather, there was a real nut on there from Mt Pocono, I am trying to remember his name. Joseph Bartlo....he was a little "off" I recall. Lived secluded in a cabin in the woods with his mom I think. He was a professor....too smart for his own good lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Great recap Ralph... larry cosgrove is a friend of mine and was a poster back then and turned me on to ne.weather board. I was mostly a lurker and recall the disaster all to well... not this time around....this time it's gonna be different...lol!!!! I sat with Larry at dinner and had a chance to talk to Paul Kocin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Joseph Bartlo....he was a little "off" I recall. Lived secluded in a cabin in the woods with his mom I think. He was a professor....too smart for his own good lol. You win the jackpot Ralph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 You win the jackpot Ralph.Yet I cant remember what I had for dinner last night though LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I sat with Larry at dinner and had a chance to talk to Paul Kocin. Great stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Hello 0z gfs‼️‼️‼️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 GFS was a monster and still a lot of snow - but we can't have it go more west without having precip type problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Hello 0z gfs‼️‼️‼️ Hell yeah, though any more west and we might gain a whole lot more rain. There apparently is the saying though that to get the best snow you have to smell the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Not sure there's been many monsters without some degree of mixing!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 GFS is textbook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 0z GFS about 75 miles West with slp vs 18z...right on SNJ coast basically. Big jump but expected at this range still. Actually changes to rain PHL to part of the LV, NYC and BOS as slp goes N thru the Hudson Valley. Still a big hit even with the flip....looks like 15-20" SE PA. Climatology and upper air pattern suggests we havent seen the farthest West solutions just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Meanwhile, the CMC goes January 1987 on us with a SW-NE band of 12"+ snow thru S DE and across S NJ with lower amounts N and W. Track is well East of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Ralph if it's going to fail you be better off it happens in the next 24hrs, you don't want it exploding to pieces on Sunday you could end up with both eyes twitching. CMC is a terrible model, besides I seen enough sic death bands off to my SE since 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 72 hr accumulated precip gfs ensembles: seems to suggest more misses S and E than W.... A few megahits scattered in for fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 No rain worries for anybody here with crazy uncle the track is decent, maybe a touch further east then we want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 UKMET is a compromise between GFS/CMC but perhaps implies a slightly stronger system. Its a high end MECS bordering HECS on the UKIE for many here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 At 96 hours low just off South Carolina. Can't get precip past 72 hours but it must be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 The look of the GFS day 9 has potential for those that are beyond help still needing more winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Allentown is 5-6" for the "big" storm on 0z euro, a good example of monumental screw potential we have to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 The same people who always seem to hit the lottery no matter the track Monmouth County, NYC, SE New England still do great on the screw track.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Joseph Bartlo....he was a little "off" I recall. Lived secluded in a cabin in the woods with his mom I think. He was a professor....too smart for his own good lol. There's always one in the crowd... 41.7F currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Euro sorta in line with the CMC and NGP and the January 1987 scenario. Lots of similarities between that storm and Tuesday. Showing up on some analogs as well. For those needing a refresher, coastal SJ crusher and DE, cutoff NW of there. Still have my WPVI Action News 6 footage of that one. One of my first heartbreaks in weather seeing the shore points crushed and just a few inches here after holding so much promise and potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Not sure there's been many monsters without some degree of mixing!!! True. While 1996 and 1983 did not mix up in Allentown (Bethlehem), 1993 featured about 4-5 hours of a total changeover to sleet during the height of the storm. Had we stayed all snow with that one, we could have possibly gotten between 25 and 30 inches instead of the 17" officially recorded at KABE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 6z GFS going towards Euro slowly at 500mb...sloppier phase/less phasing. Still a big ticket storm 12-18" SE PA at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Funny/ironic how 36-48 hours ago there were concerns over the Tuesday event failing because it was progged as being Northern Stream dominant with hardly any Southern Jet feature. Now the Southern Jet is juicy with a nice cluster of impulses in the right spot but the NS is starting to trend weaker and slopper. If we can get the 2 to meet in the middle, we are golden. Its just funny how quickly things change from one side to the other. The positive note tho is even with a few different model solutions at 500mb we still somehow end up with some snow here Tuesday and thats a plus for mid-March in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I hate to be the Debbie downer but I suspect by tomorrow disappointment will be setting in just going by the trend so far this winter. I refuse to get too jacked up, If by Sunday things are looking good then Ill be on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I hate to be the Debbie downer but I suspect by tomorrow disappointment will be setting in just going by the trend so far this winter. I refuse to get too jacked up, If by Sunday things are looking good then Ill be on board. Thanks for their excellent post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Nothing worse than being in the crosshairs 4-5 out. You know what's coming. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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