RedSky Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Fascinating stats so far imby for winter 2016-17 ***Snow*** Nov .80" Dec .70" lol Then there is last Decembers +13F to this Decembers so far -1.5F 0.00" vs 0.70" Winter has a way of being cruel to us snow fans sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 21, 2016 Author Share Posted December 21, 2016 4 of last 6 days have featured below freezing high temps here in NW Chesco Today High 31.9 Low 14.8 What a difference a year makes through 1st 20 days of this December average temp is 34.3 (1.2 degrees below normal MTD) - December 2015 1st 20 days averaged 46.8....what's 12.5 degrees among friends! Certainly enjoying much more winter like weather this year!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 21, 2016 Author Share Posted December 21, 2016 7 hours ago, RedSky said: Fascinating stats so far imby for winter 2016-17 ***Snow*** Nov .80" Dec .70" lol Then there is last Decembers +13F to this Decembers so far -1.5F 0.00" vs 0.70" Winter has a way of being cruel to us snow fans sometimes Wow you've got 88% more seasonal snow then I do this year! Lucky you!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 EPS and GEFS starting to "hint" at a potential transition to -NAO and +PNA right after new years. That's what Ill be watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 EPS and GEFS starting to "hint" at a potential transition to -NAO and +PNA right after new years. That's what Ill be watchingHavent seen the EPS past day 10 so I cant speak to those from last night's 0z. Did see the GEFS and the GEPS and both backed off of those "hints" considerably. I did see the GEFS takes a piece of the Scandinavian Ridge poleward and attempts a -AO but that is transient on the means as it retrogrades towards the Aleutians. As long as that tropospheric PV is anchored over N Central Canada, any blocking pattern on our side of the globe that tries to develop at higher latitudes will likely be transient and unable to sustain itself. That isn't to say we cant time one of those meandering ridges at the right place right time sorta thing. There are subtle "hints" on the ensemble means that as the -AO pops briefly we could have something develop in our neck of the woods roughly December 28-January 3 time frame. Probably wont be an historic winter without a favorable pattern being able to lock-in but who knows....I've seen crazier things. Still leaning average seasonal snowfall or close to it in and around PHL and extreme SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 I think Mitch and Bob (and maybe some others in the Mid Atlantic forum) noted how this might be a winter were no one pattern locks in for more than a few weeks at a time. We'll have to endure some lousy stretches and hope we can cash those times when the pattern gets more favorable. I never felt this would be a blockbuster winter, but I don't think it will be a repeat of 2001-02 or 2011-12 either. I think we can nickel & dime our way to average. I am encouraged that we've had some bouts with arctic air and the ground whitened a few times already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Light period of glazing tomorrow in SE PA during morning rush? 12km NAM and 4km NAM from 12z below. Probably not a big deal at all, more like a nuisance, BUT these light events are usually the ones that go without any road treatments because they get brushed off as not being a big deal. Timing could be bad for driving IF precip comes in and freezes on contact. Wouldnt take much to cause some headaches in the AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 ^^^This, again, probably a non-issue but just thought I would post since there isnt a whole heck of alot going on otherwise. Temps very marginal and 2m temps are progged to go above freezing around this time or shortly after. Ground still frozen solid tho after several days of vodka cold. Will go above freezing today but not sure that would make a massive difference. Big "if".....precip may not make it in AND temps marginal. Something to pay attention to and wouldnt even have mentioned it if it wasnt during AM rush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 Looking more likely that we could get at least some cold weather around New Years (transient?). Be nice to time some snow with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 23, 2016 Author Share Posted December 23, 2016 12z Euro continues to show a Miller B type event that could bear some tracking especially N and W of the cities - this would be valid for 7pm on Thursday night the 30th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 Merry Christmas from Lucy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 9 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said: 12z Euro continues to show a Miller B type event that could bear some tracking especially N and W of the cities - this would be valid for 7pm on Thursday night the 30th No other guidance supports such an outcome. Won't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 No other guidance supports such an outcome. Won't happen Agreed...I'm not seeing the threat either. Perhaps something way down the line during the first week of January but even that is a wishcast at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 Weather World went bullish yesterday with three snow chances Dec 30 - Jan 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 24, 2016 Author Share Posted December 24, 2016 Lucy starting to pull the ball away......valid 18z on Thursday the 29th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Awoke to the heaviest layer of frost so far this season. Almost looks white. About as close to a white Christmas we've had in a while anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Lucy starting to pull the ball away......valid 18z on Thursday the 29thThat system is the first (?) in a series of pattern changing storms headed thru. Likely either just a fropa or cold rain with that one. A few systems move thru and eventually raise heights in Eastern Greenland turning the NAO to negative in early January. Meanwhile the EPO looks to also turn negative and pieces of those respective ridges will head poleward and cause the AO to turn negative as well sometime in early January. There is decent consensus with most ensembles that these teleconnection shifts will happen. That doesn't necessarily equate to a snowstorm BUT the window of opportunity is certainly there as we move into the latter part of week 1 January towards mid-month. Couple these changes with the MJO heading towards phase 7 near the end of this LR and the chances for meaningful snowfall increase even more. Patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 52 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Awoke to the heaviest layer of frost so far this season. Almost looks white. About as close to a white Christmas we've had in a while anyway. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all! Lol! I love it!Merry Christmas to you and everyone else in our subforum as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Merry Christmas, everyone! Hoping Santa brings us a pattern change for the new year!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 1 hour ago, KamuSnow said: Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all! Impressive green grass. Maybe next year skip adding fertilizer in September..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Merry Christmas and Happy new snow year to all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 2 hours ago, KamuSnow said: Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all! Good job on that pile preservation! After all the rain (including 0.4" IMBY yesterday) and warmth, there are still a couple leftovers of previously shoveled snow hither and yon around here. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to the forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 On 12/25/2016 at 9:22 AM, KamuSnow said: Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all! I swear that thing won't melt for years....it's a ice brick. All you need is a little 1-3"/2-4" event to top/round it off. Belated holiday greetings to all as well! Cloudy 37.9F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 On 12/25/2016 at 11:19 AM, Animal said: Impressive green grass. Maybe next year skip adding fertilizer in September..... Thanks - it's probably green like that because we moved some dirt around down below and seeded it this past August/September. New grass seems to hold it's color nicely during the winter as long as the roots are established. There's also some nice green moss to the left that you can't really see, but it keeps the dirt in place :-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 7 hours ago, Birds~69 said: I swear that thing won't melt for years....it's a ice brick. All you need is a little 1-3"/2-4" event to top/round it off. Belated holiday greetings to all as well! Cloudy 37.9F I wish - it was starting to take the heat this afternoon. Gotta hold on for another week to 10 days for reinforcements it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 I wish - it was starting to take the heat this afternoon. Gotta hold on for another week to 10 days for reinforcements it looks like.Or at least this Thursday for a refresh anyway :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 11 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Or at least this Thursday for a refresh anyway :-) It's definitely gotten more interesting the last couple of days, although at this point we're really on the edge down here. Something to watch at least! Overall the potential over the next couple of weeks (for cold anyway) has greatly improved from how it looked last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 It's definitely gotten more interesting the last couple of days, although at this point we're really on the edge down here. Something to watch at least! Overall the potential over the next couple of weeks (for cold anyway) has greatly improved from how it looked last week.Agreed with all of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Temp is currently 25 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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