Ralph Wiggum Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Steven Dimartino on twitter is saying this will be a New England storm and I will have to agree with him. Either the storm will cutoff too soon and give us rain while NY and New England gets snow or the northern stream energy will phase/transfer too far north with the southern stream energy, giving New York City and north a blizzard. I hope I'm wrong and we get pounded with heavy snow, but what happened to the storm that was supposed to happen this Sunday? Yeah, don't get too invested until this is 72-60 hours out.I completely agree with this. Climatology and seasonal trends make this a no-brainer. Always a chance for us but I would seriously place the chance for more than 2" out of that threat near 3% right now and that is probably being too generous. Lucy isnt getting me this time....no way.....not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 I'm far more concerned about a Miller B screw job and SNE special than a storm too close to the coast. Miller B screwjob yes. But even models depicting this develop it pretty far W and r/s line is right over us. Not your typical Miller B development on guidance. NYC, probably a close call but they will get snow somehow. New England? Destroyed. When others find ways to win and snow, we find ways to fail and blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Miller B screwjob yes. But even models depicting this develop it pretty far W and r/s line is right over us. Not your typical Miller B development on guidance. NYC, probably a close call but they will get snow somehow. New England? Destroyed. When others find ways to win and snow, we find ways to fail and blow. Just look at the GFS-Para at 18z yesterday. Shows exactly what you are saying. We get soaked with 33 degree rain as Central and Northern PA gets a huge thump of heavy, heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 Been a while since a snowy Wxsim forecast....here is the GFS/NAM 6z blend as of this AM for next Tuesday - may happen as I will be in sunny Clearwater with the Phightin Phillies!! Tuesday: Dense overcast. Snow likely. High 34. Wind chill around 22. Wind east around 12 mph, gusting to 21 mph, in the morning, becoming 16 mph, gusting to 24 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 1 and 2 inches. Snow accumulation 8 to 12 inches. Tuesday night: Dense overcast. Snow likely in the evening, then a chance of snow after midnight. Low 30. Wind chill as low as 20. Wind north-northeast around 14 mph, gusting to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between a quarter and half an inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 The latest GFS has some resemblance to this storm from 2015. Northern stream energy goes to transfer to the coast, snow remains in western PA, dry slot eastern PA, blizzard NYC and north. Obviously the setup is completely different, but I feel there are some similarities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 this next week looks misrable for SE PA. cold, non accumulating snow showers friday, a misd south sunday, then a cold rain storm Tuesday. what a way to cap off a crappy winter. at least today and tomorrow will be nice days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Every run of every model is different yet we will finish with one result-no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 GEM is north wave #1, deep south wave#2, south wave#3, north wave #4 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Keeping score for wave #1 at 12z NAM/GFS/GEM/RGEM no snow for you UKMET no waver with it's 1-4" for our region south to north NAM went back up to .5"-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief83 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 No rain to speak of. .11 yesterday morning. Nothing with the frontal passage during the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 0.13" of rain yesterday....0.17" MTD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 ECM has a south track like the UKMET for Friday. Model wars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 ECM supports a decent hit for this area wave #3 next Tuesday. Now with all the crazy model flips and changes that have been going on this winter, hasn't been common for the GFS and ECM to be on the same page day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Euro is as good as it gets for a miller B in mid-march for us. that's 6+ for everyone NE of Maryland. Trough needs to dig more and more, but that ridge out west just keeps trending stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, RedSky said: ECM supports a decent hit for this area wave #3 next Tuesday. Now with all the crazy model flips and changes that have been going on this winter, hasn't been common for the GFS and ECM to be on the same page day 6. When did posting euro snow maps become acceptable on this site? Literally every sub-forum has snow maps, including the clown kuchera one. Now, I'm not against it, but i always thought it was technically illegal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 28 minutes ago, Newman said: When did posting euro snow maps become acceptable on this site? Literally every sub-forum has snow maps, including the clown kuchera one. Now, I'm not against it, but i always thought it was technically illegal. At least for the map above I believe that is from 2 years ago, so I don't think that's the kind of map they frown upon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 42 minutes ago, shemATC said: At least for the map above I believe that is from 2 years ago, so I don't think that's the kind of map they frown upon. The map I posted was one from Jan 2015. I'm talking about current, right-now snow maps of the euro. I don't have anything against posting them because, well, I don't have any subscription service to get the snow maps and I like to see them. However, I always thought it was illegal to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 If anyone gets the wxbell maps would you tell me if you can get the 500mb euro map that has heights and vorticity without the wind streamlines. The maps I look at are way too busy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 Call me stunned....latest Wxsim with 18z NAM/12z GFS model runs cuts Tuesday snow amounts by more than 50%....shocking! Tuesday: Dense overcast. Snow likely in the morning, then a chance of snow in the afternoon. High 35. Wind chill around 23. Wind east-southeast around 12 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between a quarter and half an inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 3 inches. Tuesday night: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog. Snow likely in the evening, then a chance of snow after midnight. Low 30. Wind chill as low as 23. Wind north-northeast around 7 mph, gusting to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 For Friday. Guess where my house is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 18z GFS looking spicyyyyy for Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmosk Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 hour ago, shemATC said: For Friday. Guess where my house is? In some sort of urban heat island, perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 not too shabby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2' in RI. How about NC getting "Lucy'd" with the wave 2 storm. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 hours ago, shemATC said: For Friday. Guess where my house is? Assuming you are referring to the white shaded area, Langhorne isn't that far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 18z shotguns us with big storms next week in a Feb 2010 redux Meanwhile at 9" of snow on the season I have weathered half a dozen fails looking to get that 1" to get out of the gutter and into double digits. Couldn't make this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 hour ago, RedSky said: 18z shotguns us with big storms next week in a Feb 2010 redux Meanwhile at 9" of snow on the season I have weathered half a dozen fails looking to get that 1" to get out of the gutter and into double digits. Couldn't make this up. That would make for the most back loaded winter in recorded history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 hours ago, Violentweatherfan said: Assuming you are referring to the white shaded area, Langhorne isn't that far west. If you look closely it extends across the Philadelphia border into western Bucks county. I live on the western edge of Langhorne which is only 3 miles from the border. So no it's not a bullseye on my house, but close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 There are 4.....count them...FOUR chances for snow in SE PA over the next 10 days. Friday is meh, Sunday looks like it will miss South. That in my book is an 0 for 2 start. Yeah, maybe mood flakes Friday but considering this was at least a minor accumulating threat in some recent runs, Im declaring it a fail for all intents and purposes. If we go 0 for 4, not only am I hijacking Lucy and tossing her from the top of the Comcast building in center city....I may follow right behind her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: There are 4.....count them...FOUR chances for snow in SE PA over the next 10 days. Friday is meh, Sunday looks like it will miss South. That in my book is an 0 for 2 start. Yeah, maybe mood flakes Friday but considering this was at least a minor accumulating threat in some recent runs, Im declaring it a fail for all intents and purposes. If we go 0 for 4, not only am I hijacking Lucy and tossing her from the top of the Comcast building in center city....I may follow right behind her. You'd probably make the news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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