shemATC Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Hey, so another storm at Day 7-10 moved backwards to Day 7-10. Surprise surprise. Though there will be no shortage of cold air for wave 3, so who knows. 3 days of lows in the singles/teens in march. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 All I want is Friday to give me a good 2-3 inches on grassy surfaces followed by a cold stretch where I can at least enjoy a snow covered ground before the March sun angle completely ruins it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Shhh.....don't start a new thread whatever you guys do! I'll take rain\snow mix Fri, turning colder over the weekend (2nd one in a row!) and an accumulation with wave 3 for 50% chance of verification please Alex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Nam has dropped us .5" qpf for Friday. Going to be nothing more than a dusting-1" I think. Going to toss my eggs into Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 So ECM increased #1 to 2-4" and 6" for NYC wave #3 what a turn of events in 24 hours from those that were envious of the MA crew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 0z NAM = What snow Friday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 0z NAM = What snow Friday morning? Disaster run for Friday but would imply a much farther North Sunday system? Not sure I buy it. See what GFS and CMC do. If we somehow get shutout from all 3 systems, Lucy had better find a safe zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Disaster run for Friday but would imply a much farther North Sunday system? Not sure I buy it. See what GFS and CMC do. If we somehow get shutout from all 3 systems, Lucy had better find a safe zone. This is becoming more humorous with each fail, any perturbation possible that results in no snow is the only option. Not that it matters though because it's like...spring. Friday was gone to the south 36 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 This is becoming more humorous with each fail, any perturbation possible that results in no snow is the only option. Not that it matters though because it's like...spring. Friday was gone to the south 36 hours ago. If its one thing we've done well this winter, it is fail. We may be the best region in terms of failing this winter, so we have that going for us. The MA forum is good at fail storms too but that is an annual thing for them...they are sort of accustomed to missing. It is built into their climatology. This season has been a special sort of fail for us up here. Unchartered territory type thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: If its one thing we've done well this winter, it is fail. We may be the best region in terms of failing this winter, so we have that going for us. The MA forum is good at fail storms too but that is an annual thing for them...they are sort of accustomed to missing. It is built into their climatology. This season has been a special sort of fail for us up here. Unchartered territory type thing. Agreed we are holding the #1 spot for fail. But going even further for this forum coming in locally at a lowly 9" for the season is 22" below average, nobody else can say that. I got the double fail going for me, so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Super volcano eruption is my last card to save this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 00z gfs is a tick north on wave 2. Gentleman start your engines...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said: 00z gfs is a tick north on wave 2. Gentleman start your engines...? Further north wave #2 hurts the chance for a #3 hit lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, RedSky said: Further north wave #2 hurts the chance for a #3 hit lol Hence "start your engines" ...we'll have to drive to the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 CMC is snow-nihalation next Tuesday, flakes the size of saucers and frisbees . I give it a .01% chance of verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 GFS and CMC both hinting at some coastal storm Tuesday. All you really need to know. Ridge out west looks impressive, blocking is breaking down, consider me intrigued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, RedSky said: CMC is snow-nihalation next Tuesday, flakes the size of saucers and frisbees . I give it a .01% chance of verification. North to South the cmc seems over-dressed and out to lunch for weeks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Cripes the words March 2001 and triple phaser are being tossed out there like free candy, RUN FOR THE HILLS AND DON'T LOOK BACK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Some curious Frontogensis characteristics for the Friday Nam 12km. This one might be over done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 UKMET is STILL on board for Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, RedSky said: Cripes the words March 2001 and triple phaser are being tossed out there like free candy, RUN FOR THE HILLS AND DON'T LOOK BACK! preferably the hills in Northern Catskills or Vermont's presidential range... pack a shovel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: UKMET is STILL on board for Friday well thats reassuring {sarcasm}! How has the UKMET been scoring lately I don't follow it very much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, zenmsav6810 said: well thats reassuring {sarcasm}! How has the UKMET been scoring lately I don't follow it very much? Seems like it's always shadowing behind the ECM, but they all been failing if snow is involved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 If we go 0 for 3 there is a caboose on the March fail train called wave #4 on the 17th, St. Patrick's Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: If we go 0 for 3 there is a caboose on the March fail train called wave #4 on the 17th, St. Patrick's Day. So many near misses... surely old man winter will phase two of them together by accident and let us squeak out a miller b? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 6z GFS is freaking amazing for next Tuesday. Beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 06z gfs full weenie mode activated...please...please....please....please.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Next Tuesday is a true thread the needle for SE PA. We will fail almost assuredly. This has far interior elevation snow written all over it. Almost every model has the slp right on the coast. Need a 50-75 bump east. Plenty of time but these have verified West all season. I will not be sucked back in. Dont do it guys....save yourselves! Remember our motto here this season....when others find ways to win and snow, we find ways to fail and blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Steven Dimartino on twitter is saying this will be a New England storm and I will have to agree with him. Either the storm will cutoff too soon and give us rain while NY and New England gets snow or the northern stream energy will phase/transfer too far north with the southern stream energy, giving New York City and north a blizzard. I hope I'm wrong and we get pounded with heavy snow, but what happened to the storm that was supposed to happen this Sunday? Yeah, don't get too invested until this is 72-60 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Next Tuesday is a true thread the needle for SE PA. We will fail almost assuredly. This has far interior elevation snow written all over it. Almost every model has the slp right on the coast. Need a 50-75 bump east. Plenty of time but these have verified West all season. I will not be sucked back in. Dont do it guys....save yourselves! Remember our motto here this season....when others find ways to win and snow, we find ways to fail and blow. I'm far more concerned about a Miller B screw job and SNE special than a storm too close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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