RedSky Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, Newman said: What kind of temperatures are we looking at? Are lows below 0? If this goes suppressed south, which it probably will, lower Virginia will have one historic winter, snowfall wise and we will be left in the dust. Best guestimate looking at the 850 charts? 0 to -5 Real funny I been telling everybody the worst of winter cold is now over...oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Nice mild up and breakdown of the cold pattern on ECM hour 240 after it's killed nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 27 minutes ago, Newman said: What kind of temperatures are we looking at? Are lows below 0? If this goes suppressed south, which it probably will, lower Virginia will have one historic winter, snowfall wise and we will be left in the dust. Just like I said in a previous thought cold and dry them mild and wet. I hate that crap it annoys the ever lovin crap outta me. anyway I'm somewhat optimistic this will come North at some point ,the models have been overplaying suppression somewhat, as the system gets closer and onshore things will begin to change we've seen all season haven't we. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 A historic storm would get the PA ski resorts into April I think. we'll see... I give a 10% chance of us seeing 10" or more at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Hopefully models are overdoing the confluence and suppression in the medium range. I've seen it happen before and at this point if it's going to be that cold it might as well snow. Need that ridge out west to amplify and a stronger storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Better get a tick back north, otherwise I'm putting a hit out on Lucy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, shemATC said: Better get a tick back north, otherwise I'm putting a hit out on Lucy. Well I'd rather it be south of us than north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, AnthonyDabbundo said: Well I'd rather it be south of us than north Normally I would agree, but not with the way this pattern appears to be set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 20 minutes ago, AnthonyDabbundo said: Well I'd rather it be south of us than north I agree. I'll take a cold, cirrus filled day over a 37 degree, cold rain one. Those are painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Newman said: I agree. I'll take a cold, cirrus filled day over a 37 degree, cold rain one. Those are painful. Agreed, I'll never forget that day April 4th, 2001: my first day on the T-ball field at the Oley Valley Youth League. It was cold, winding, drizzling and BRRRRR.... lovely feeling when the ball hit your glove. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Ugly. The South trend continues for Sunday system. Went from a New England storm, to a Philly storm, to a DCA storm, to an historic VA/NC storm. How low can she go? Where is the dang mid March climatological Northward jump when u need it? Friday might wind up being the bigger deal for the region when all is said and done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 GFS a few stray flakes in SE PA Sunday. GEM suppressed well South. Well, at least this didnt happen with 36 hours or less to go lol. That excitement didnt last long today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 It's going to be squashed to death deep south is my take, the unfortunate MA crew are going to be left with light snow flurries by the time it's done. If I were Lucy I would get into witness protection pronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 It's going to be squashed to death deep south is my take, the unfortunate MA crew are going to be left with light snow flurries by the time it's done. If I were Lucy I would get into witness protection pronto. She's going off a bridge....I swear. And I completely agree with you. Confluence may rip this to shreds and leave a strung out mess in the Southeast. Would fit the seasonal trend with this setup if Im not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Ralph our best chance is the 3rd follow up wave on Monday-Tuesday if it can track south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Cold dumps in early Jan,Feb, March I would not discount April for a chance, this next cold shot would snow us in mid April lol. We should be able to overcome suppression next month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Geez, Euro did pretty much what I feared.....strung out sheared mess squashed over the Southeast. Seasonal pattern sucks, too predictable. We need to hope Friday overproduces because Sunday is pretty much DOA. We are within 72 hours now for the Friday event so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 GFS and NAM both in line now for a decent hit across much of the region Friday. Forget Sunday, for now......one system at a time. Friday could be the top 1 or 2 event of the season for some here. Under 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS and NAM both in line now for a decent hit across much of the region Friday. Forget Sunday, for now......one system at a time. Friday could be the top 1 or 2 event of the season for some here. Under 3 days. Yup. As of hour 114, extrapolating out from there, it still looks like a VA hit for wave #2... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Classic Miller B central/eastern PA screw zone with wave/storm #2. It comes out of the midwest with just enough curve to get southwestern PA pretty good, then redevelops and hammers southern Virginia while leaving locations north of I-78 pretty much "high and dry"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Classic Miller B central/eastern PA screw zone with wave/storm #2. It comes out of the midwest with just enough curve to get southwestern PA pretty good, then redevelops and hammers southern Virginia while leaving locations north of I-78 pretty much "high and dry"...Makes sense. We've seen this 2 or 3 times at least already this season. Lets hope Friday can overperform. Looks like precip is mostly overnight and early AM so that helps this time of year. Not sure how it will impact the morning commute, ie, will it just be wet roads or will heavier rates overcome warmish surface temps and make things slick? I'm smelling hints of a 2-hour school delay for the kids but low confidence at this point. 1-3" seems like a decent bet on grass and cars. *Maybe* some spots can eek out 2-4"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Hopefully nothing major happens Friday - have a job interview (maybe two) to go to. 1-3/2-4" isn't really even worth while at this point, go for broke with 5-10" on Sunday I would say and let's move on to Spring. As of now, we're going for 0" Sunday LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 lol major suppression when the ensembles are showing a slightly positive NAO regime. usually we d be worrying about it trending too far north...but only in this winter will it be majorly suppressed and a major storm will miss to the south... bring back the 60 and 70 degree weather to stay please. this winter is cursed, we just need it to be gone for good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1-3 inches is insignificant at this time of the year. it will all be melted by the evening commute. doubt there's nothing more than wet roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 16 minutes ago, The Iceman said: lol major suppression when the ensembles are showing a slightly positive NAO regime. usually we d be worrying about it trending too far north...but only in this winter will it be majorly suppressed and a major storm will miss to the south... bring back the 60 and 70 degree weather to stay please. this winter is cursed, we just need it to be gone for good. I was kinda hopeful by now the models would've been trying to catch on to something and start the North trend by now, but it looks like this dreadful winter just keeps on going. anything under 6" this time of the year is just not worth it.... IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS and NAM both in line now for a decent hit across much of the region Friday. Forget Sunday, for now......one system at a time. Friday could be the top 1 or 2 event of the season for some here. Under 3 days. Yup so far 3" is my tops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Friday looks north. I-78 region and north looks decent.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 GFS&NAM 3" locally Then a deep freeze weekend and light snow(possibly more?) early part of next week. Best stretch of winter right there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Canadian delays wave #2 phases it with wave #3 and smokes us early next week. Just when you thought you were out they pull you back in lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 UKMET thinks the Canadian is not necessarily a total hoser for the all in one basket wave #3 idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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