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EPA/NJ/DE General Winter Discussions


ChescoWx

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1 hour ago, Newman said:

What I would give for the 0z Euro storm to NOT happen. This winter and the models have given me too many headaches. Just give me spring already and end this misery! On the other hand, another HECS would be cool.

Don't worry its not gonna happen. same ole story 1-2 days cold and dry  5+ days above average chance of showers, Wash, Rinse and repeat. Spring will soon be here   

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How's it looking for my two locations?  I understand we have 3 storms lined up between now and 3/22.

Location 1 is southwestern Long Island, Lynbrook area, in Nassau County, Long Island, NY.

Location 2 is southern Poconos, Albrightsville, in Carbon County, PA, one county NW of Allentown.

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That's what I meant in my last post, This is looking more and more like it could happen Where? only time will tell but someone is going to be measuring this with a yardstick. The Folks down South are whooping this up cause they are in the bullseye 6 days out, I wouldn't want to be in that situation  cause we all know how that works out. Fun times ahead folks this could be our last gasp lets end it with a Bang..

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On 3/2/2017 at 11:47 PM, RedSky said:

Good luck with that one Ralph, Lucy put me in a wheelchair speaking through a voice synthesizer weeks ago

 

 

Lucy really being a pita this year. Who knows tho....we are within 5 days now. Not getting too invested just yet. A few thoughts I have tho regarding this threat.....models are trending South with the system(s). When we've seen this trend at this range this season, the end result has generally been a more Southern storm OR a sheared out mess well to the South. HOWEVER, with climatology in mind, the tendency this time of the year is to overdo the cold HP push from the North (prog the system too far South) and then the end result ends up farther to the North. Dare I say, we are actually in a fairly decent spot right now?? Friday night system dumps 4-6" for us RedSky then the Sunday system is a 5-10"+ widespread event (6z GFS OP). That would be a sweet 1-2 punch to finish the season. If Lucy prevails again, I'm going to track her down and toss her from the Ben Franklin Bridge! 

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16 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

That's what I meant in my last post, This is looking more and more like it could happen Where? only time will tell but someone is going to be measuring this with a yardstick. The Folks down South are whooping this up cause they are in the bullseye 6 days out, I wouldn't want to be in that situation  cause we all know how that works out. Fun times ahead folks this could be our last gasp lets end it with a Bang..

If this were january I would say yeah, the Southern system has some merit. But the SE Ridge and the climatologic warmth this time of the year almost always prevails and these systems end up farther N than progged at 4-6 days out. I could be wrong, but climatology doesnt lie. Watch this end up crushing New England and missing the MA and PHL forums. I would need a straight-jacket :-)

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I feel like the PARA has been behind all winter with the storms (i.e. the 00z GFS looks like what the PARA ends up at 12z or 18z) especially at the 7-10 day mark.  Wonder if it has a delay due to the data they are using for it.  Who knows.  

All I know is if this crushes VA, the only saving grace will be watching the zombie apocalypse in the MA "Panic Room" thread.

 

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30 inches of digital snow on the new gfs for the run. let's see how fast we can end that... coastal plane is going to be borderline temp wise no matter what on the weekend storm. going to take a perfect track to avoid mixing or missing altogether. really can't take this serious until about Thursday. really though unless it's a historical storm, I'd prefer a miss. I'm just not a fan of an advisory snow storm that melts in a day or 2... im rooting for either a monster 10+ inch storm or a complete miss. an advisory event would feel more like a kick in the junk than a success after wasting all of the prime winter cold and sun angle...  

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3 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

30 inches of digital snow on the new gfs for the run. let's see how fast we can end that... coastal plane is going to be borderline temp wise no matter what on the weekend storm. going to take a perfect track to avoid mixing or missing altogether. really can't take this serious until about Thursday. really though unless it's a historical storm, I'd prefer a miss. I'm just not a fan of an advisory snow storm that melts in a day or 2... im rooting for either a monster 10+ inch storm or a complete miss. an advisory event would feel more like a kick in the junk than a success after wasting all of the prime winter cold and sun angle...  

I look forward to historic cold with snow suppressed south in March about as much as chewing glass and old rusty nails 

 

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28 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Off the charts cold on the Euro for this Saturday, border line unbelievable for middle of March. 

 

 

What kind of temperatures are we looking at? Are lows below 0? If this goes suppressed south, which it probably will, lower Virginia will have one historic winter, snowfall wise and we will be left in the dust. 

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