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EPA/NJ/DE General Winter Discussions


ChescoWx

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25 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

I've coasted up to a gas pump twice having just run out of gas. Kind of planned it but didn't mean for it to be that close. 34F.

Hysterical....2 of my 4 times I did the same!!!

and yes "birds"...this winter was sad and I have given up for down here which is why I'm planning a week in New England trip next time they're scheduled to get clobbered (which will happen for them and it does seem like it does get "scheduled" up their way)!!

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 "Towel throwing" time (bumped and updated from my original posting of March 2013)

NOTICE:

Let it be known that on this 14th day of  Febrary 2017, upon review and consensus and, as set forth by this Review Board, "Very Old Man Winter" (student) has been expelled due to failing grades for his performance during the winters of 2015-16 & 2016-17!

Upon his successful completion of (sweltering) Summer School courses in "Philly Area Winter Meteorology" and a written commitment to over-perform during the Winter of 2017-18 ad infinitum, his records will be examined by Head Master (aka "HM") to determine his eligibility for re-admittance! 

"Mother Nature" is hereby required to acknowledge and sign receipt of this Notice!!

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17 hours ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Skip spring and go straight to summer please!

 

And forky better not present actual fact showing a cold wet spring/early summer...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

please.

:lol: I am with you there but I have a bad feeling that we'll get a massive -NAO, -AO, and +PNA pattern starting near the end of march just as snow season ends that will last into mid may so that it's rainy and cool for days on end... capped off by a monster noreaster in mid-late april that gives us a 40 degree cold rain where we all ponder where this was in winter. Seems like it always works out like that...

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3 hours ago, The Iceman said:

:lol: I am with you there but I have a bad feeling that we'll get a massive -NAO, -AO, and +PNA pattern starting near the end of march just as snow season ends that will last into mid may so that it's rainy and cool for days on end... capped off by a monster noreaster in mid-late april that gives us a 40 degree cold rain where we all ponder where this was in winter. Seems like it always works out like that...

God I hope not, nothing worse than a wet cool spring.  

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On 2/12/2017 at 1:31 PM, RedSky said:

One last dance with the devil chance to get snow late month I guarantee it.

 

I was real close, GFS shows 1-2" for the northern half of SEPA and east into Jersey

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017022818&fh=72&xpos=0&ypos=146 

GFS keeps showing this little band and its constantly fluctuating around mostly to the north. GFS pretty much alone with this, not giving it more than a 10% chance lol

 

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16 hours ago, RedSky said:

I was real close, GFS shows 1-2" for the northern half of SEPA and east into Jersey

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017022818&fh=72&xpos=0&ypos=146 

GFS keeps showing this little band and its constantly fluctuating around mostly to the north. GFS pretty much alone with this, not giving it more than a 10% chance lol

 

NAMs came South. Mood flakes Friday but Im not in the mood after this spring tease....pun intended.

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Thought I would post my quarterly weather synopsis article I write for the local East Nantmeal Township newsletter

Hello again from Paul at The Western Chester County Weather Station (www.chescowx.com) here in beautiful East Nantmeal Township.

Well what an incredibly warm winter we have enjoyed (if you like relative mild temps and little snow like most folks) This was clearly opposite of what I had predicted in my last article back in November.  But as I have often stated…it is best to rely on the true professionals at the National Weather Service in Mount Holly http://www.weather.gov/phi/ for the best possible forecast both short and longer term.

So, how bad was my fearless forecast for the winter by month:

Well, my December forecast was a prediction of (1) one degree below average and we ended up at 35.4 or +0.9 above normal. Snow wise my prediction was a big miss as only 0.5” fell for the entire month…all of that on the 12/17.  My prediction of 6” for the month while only slightly above the normal snowfall here in the county (5.2”) was nowhere near reality.

The January forecast was for a slightly warmer than average temperature at 1 degree above normal. Reality however, while delivering the same average temperature as December at 35.4 degrees resulted in a well above average (+5.7 degrees) temp vs. our normal January temperature of 29.7 degrees.  Snow wise was not any better, as while the forecast was for a less than normal snowfall (10.0") against our normal is 11.7" - we ended up with just 6.1” of snow in the township during January.

While my outlooks for both December and January were quite poor…February was where my forecast went way off the rails!! I had forecasted a colder (1.5 degrees below normal) month with 5” more snow than our normal fall of 13". We ended up with only 4.3” of snow for the month…all of that falling on the 9th of February. Of greater interest is that this February will go down as the warmest February ever here in Chester County at 41.2 degrees, eclipsing the previous warm February’s of 1998 (40.0) and 1909 (39.5)

During the month of February, we have enjoyed 3 consecutive days with highs in the 70’s between the 23rd and 25th of the month including a record high of 71.6 on the 23rd eclipsing the previous record high set back in both 1922 and 1977 of 69 degrees.

Now as warm as this November through February period has been it will only go down as the 6th warmest winter period in our recorded history dating back to 1894. The winter of 1931/32 was our warmest winter season at 39.5 degrees. Through February  we are at 37.3 degrees. To allay fears of some that believe in global warming or climate change… do not forget that in just the last 4 years we have had 2 winter seasons (2013/14 and 2014/15) that ranked in the top 20 winter seasons since 1894 and in the top 5 of winter seasons in the last 35 years for cold weather!

The good news is with the longer days of spring we will see average high temps soar from the March 1st normal high of just 44.4 up to 68.2 by April 30th and 78.9 by May 31st! That said we have had 17 snowstorms of greater than 10 inches after March 1st here in Western Chester County since 1894 so while not likely…. keep those snow blowers handy!

I hope all of you have a great start to spring!  If you have any questions, please visit my website and send me an email. Until next time –All the best!  Paul

Some are weather-wise, some are otherwise” Ben Franklin

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2 hours ago, RedSky said:

Early to wake vegetation and  bulbs are going to take a hurting now with local forecast lows of 17 and 15 coming. Last year daffodil blossoms were killed off for spring blooms likely the same result. Crazy weather.

 

 

 

Yeah, my hyacinths are budding out of the ground. Daffodils and tulip buds should be ok, havent emerged just yet. This cold snap sucks tho. 

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