Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Last chance? Ensembles suggest otherwise for the Northeast, our region included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Euro was nice for midweek event but is all by itself. Maybe it can regain "king" status, but we know how this has played out at this range with the Euro on board and others nasomuch this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Euro is ummm, intersting for middle next week: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Ralph I been feeling fully burned out over winter with the dissapointing miller b and told myself don't even look anymore spring is almost here, but I like my digital snowstorms that thing is an early showing PDIII Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Just now, RedSky said: Ralph I been feeling fully burned out over winter with the dissapointing miller b and told myself don't even look anymore spring is almost here, but I like my digital snowstorms that thing is an early showing PDIII It is alone aside from some GEFS members (havent seen the EPS) BUT there were ZERO GEFS members with this at 0Z so there's that. Only takes 1 to start a trend. Let's do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Hard to scratch together any positives this winter but this is a miller A not the typical miller B screw job potential if it happens Euro does handle miller A's better than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 a 971 over the benchmark? Lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, AnthonyDabbundo said: a 971 over the benchmark? Lock it up It's an amazing track bet the snow map is great for PA because it tracks due north on the coast of New England and rains them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 minute ago, AnthonyDabbundo said: Correction on that: took a look at wxbell and it hooks into SNE, too far east for us. But still, getting closer and closer to what we need. Bomb or bust. Really? We miss the snow because it's east and they get rain because it's west that would be unbelievable lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 It's an amazing track bet the snow map is great for PA because it tracks due north on the coast of New England and rains them. Rain for New England and snow for PA? Clearly this model is wrong ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Rain for New England and snow for PA? Clearly this model is wrong ;-) Actually I'm headed to Boston next Friday for a college visit at BU, so it's most certainly going to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Ryan Maue on twitter is saying if this storm were to happen, it would be the "Big Show" out of the 3 storms the NE is getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Yeah looked at it again this is a miller B and it explodes south of Montauk and grazes us, yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Yeah looked at it again this is a miller B and it explodes south of Montauk and grazes us, yuck. Thats a miller A on the Euro. Single low track from Gulf States off of Mid-Atlantic coast and to the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: Yeah looked at it again this is a miller B and it explodes south of Montauk and grazes us, yuck. The Euro snow map puts a snow hole around SE PA for the next 180 hours. So it's got to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Thats a miller A on the Euro. Single low track from Gulf States off of Mid-Atlantic coast and to the benchmark. Look again the bigger energy wraps in through the lakes north stream and phases it off the Jersey coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Of course NYC does well, miller B's tend to be that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Look again the bigger energy wraps in through the lakes north stream and phases it off the Jersey coast Still looks like a Miller A to me, but it's really not worth arguing over. I will say in my studies that very little reference was made to phasing or 500mb upper air patterns when determining the differences between a Miller A and a Miller B. The Miller-type storm is identified almost entirely based on surface features and subsequent surface low pressure track. A Miller A is generally a single slp coming out of the Gulf States of the GOM itself and traveling just off of and up the Eastern Seaboard. A Miller B (base Miller B, not hybrid of the 2), is a dual low scenario when one surface feature tracks towards the Appalachians and then redevelops as a second slp off the coast USUALLY in response to strong surface high pressure to the North causing said redevelopment. Storm then either tracks NE or ENE (out-to-sea) in general. Maybe what we are seeing on the Euro is a hybrid? But I stick to my idea that this Euro run verbatim is a Miller A with a single slp and no surface physics evident to cause a redevelopment of the SS low defining it as a Miller B. When I think Miller B I usually associate it with a strong surface high over Northern NE or SE Canada causing strong CAD between a Western low and an Eastern (redeveloping) low and plenty of mixing in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Looks like a miller A to me with some potential trough features. Long range seems to work out more often with them. I give this a 50-50 chance. I'm headed up to Vermont on the 20th to ski, seems every time I go up the new England thaw happens and I get stuck with lousy conditions having just missed peak winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 The euro 24 hr panels are deceiving. That 971 off Long Island comes from Canada. The 998 in Alabama gets suppressed and kicks straight east and out. Wish it was a Miller A, but it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Irrelevant at this point now anyway.....pretty much a non-event on every model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 This winter was about as memorable as a lead balloon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 That ridge gets pushed too far east for us to benefit. Bombs too late. Unless that ridge changes, we're done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 42 minutes ago, AnthonyDabbundo said: we're done fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 NYC is trending toward a weak Nemo repeat, good luck making out being on the southern fringe of a Miller B with the ECM. Just when I thought the winter was as terrible as it could get the Nemo storm I managed to block from memory pops up. Yeah never mind the Thursday debacle being the worst last minute fold in decades, Nemo was only four years ago. Miller B southwest quadrant was suppose to nail the north burbs here with 8-12" and ended up with something like 3.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 51 minutes ago, RedSky said: NYC is trending toward a weak Nemo repeat, good luck making out being on the southern fringe of a Miller B with the ECM. Just when I thought the winter was as terrible as it could get the Nemo storm I managed to block from memory pops up. Yeah never mind the Thursday debacle being the worst last minute fold in decades, Nemo was only four years ago. Miller B southwest quadrant was suppose to nail the north burbs here with 8-12" and ended up with something like 3.5" This storm was the worst debacle for me ever. January 2015. NWS had me getting out here 10-14 inches at one point and they slowly kept dropping it. 24 hours out, they had me at 6-8 inches. Ended up with flurries. Storm formed too far north and east and the associated clipper that redeveloped still had snow in western PA that stole all of the moisture and created SE PA as the subsidence zone. It hurts to talk about this one. I will always remember this one when Miller B talk comes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 53 minutes ago, Newman said: This storm was the worst debacle for me ever. January 2015. NWS had me getting out here 10-14 inches at one point and they slowly kept dropping it. 24 hours out, they had me at 6-8 inches. Ended up with flurries. Storm formed too far north and east and the associated clipper that redeveloped still had snow in western PA that stole all of the moisture and created SE PA as the subsidence zone. It hurts to talk about this one. I will always remember this one when Miller B talk comes up. I see you kept that nightmare on your hard drive as some form of battle scar. I remember that map the only thing good about that abomination was the rug wasn't pulled out in the last hours but nice slow and gradual the last 48hrs, and of course it came in a good winter which made it easier to get over. Nemo in 2013 which was right around this time in February was the storm to save what had been a lackluster winter. It saved everybody's winter from about 50 miles northeast of here north. Trade that winter for this one with no second thoughts at least I had 20" up to this date that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 I'm officially out on the remainder of this winter. LR progs all point to an early and sustained springtime regime ahead. Here's hoping 2017-18 will be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 ^Kids playing out in the street today along w/the occasional bird(s) chirping was the nail the coffin. Winter never started to begin with...basically a long Fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birdbean Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 2 hours ago, Newman said: This storm was the worst debacle for me ever. January 2015. NWS had me getting out here 10-14 inches at one point and they slowly kept dropping it. 24 hours out, they had me at 6-8 inches. Ended up with flurries. Storm formed too far north and east and the associated clipper that redeveloped still had snow in western PA that stole all of the moisture and created SE PA as the subsidence zone. It hurts to talk about this one. I will always remember this one when Miller B talk comes up. Berks and Lancaster Counties never do good with Miller B's. We're both to far south and west to ever get in on the action. I still remember the 2000 Jan Miller B (I think thats when it was) disaster we were supposed to get 12 to 16 and ended up with a flurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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