ChescoWx Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 Wow a lot of folks on here with the same birthday! Mine is also the 17th - Happy Birthday to all Paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 It did snow in my area just 3 years ago on my Birthday when 1.5" fell in 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Lucy's cousin the CMC 3-5" Saturday morning, GFS the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Lucy's cousin the CMC 3-5" Saturday morning, GFS the same. Washed away with rain after the flip? Still showing temps in the 50s by midnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Nvermind, just saw Euro and answered my own questions. Mid to upper 60s Sunday. Beautiful! I can get some yardwork done :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 On 12/13/2016 at 2:06 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Nvermind, just saw Euro and answered my own questions. Mid to upper 60s Sunday. Beautiful! I can get some yardwork done :-D Hey Ralph, I asked this over in the NY forum but figured you'd have a better answer for me. Got a flight out of Philly 7:45 am on Saturday morning. What are my chances here? Are you (or anyone else in here) experienced with PHL's handling of inclement weather? Never flew out of Philly so I'm not sure at all. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 5 hours ago, RUMG11 said: Hey Ralph, I asked this over in the NY forum but figured you'd have a better answer for me. Got a flight out of Philly 7:45 am on Saturday morning. What are my chances here? Are you (or anyone else in here) experienced with PHL's handling of inclement weather? Never flew out of Philly so I'm not sure at all. Thanks in advance. Flew out last year in a similar storm, 1-3 inches, and had no delay. You should be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 3 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Flew out last year in a similar storm, 1-3 inches, and had no delay. You should be fine. Much appreciated friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Euro has an interesting 'event' around the 22nd. Looks cold enough, favorable track to the South. Euro is deadly in this range. I'm 100% on board. Feeling very optimistic today! Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 48 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Euro has an interesting 'event' around the 22nd. Looks cold enough, favorable track to the South. Euro is deadly in this range. I'm 100% on board. Feeling very optimistic today! Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk I would be on board but Lucy melts that fake snow under a baked potato SE ridge by Christmas btw the ridge will verify but the snow will go poof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 ....a baked potato SE ridge by ChristmasROTFLMAO! Well played sir! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Just heard Mitchell (Mt. Holly) on KYW radio about 10 minutes ago talking about the PV and upcoming cold temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 7 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Just heard Mitchell (Mt. Holly) on KYW radio about 10 minutes ago talking about the PV and upcoming cold temps. Now if they'd just "can" those clowns from KYW tv... Mitch is great, posts all the time on PhillyWx forums! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 5 hours ago, snowwors2 said: Now if they'd just "can" those clowns from KYW tv... Mitch is great, posts all the time on PhillyWx forums! I know he and Walt used to post here too (along with Tony, et al). Mike does pop in here every once in awhile. Will see if PV blobs make any more appearances this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 10f, no snow cover, impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 When I headed out the door to work @ 6am, the car thermometer was reading 12F. Arctic (at least this early in the season)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 13.1F ... with rain 24hrs later. Actually, the 6z NAM looked a little better for front end frozen. But it IS the 6z NAM, so whatevs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 The sun is out and temps have skyrocketed to 21.6F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Mostly sunny and up to 24F what the fudge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Medium-Long range pattern looks absolutely awful through mid-January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Heating bill will get a break after this brief cold snap. Massive +NAO takes hold with a deep and darn-near permanent stratospheric PV positioned in North Central Canada. These features to remain dominant thru at least mid January. Progressive pattern in the Eastern US with zero NA blocking will be the theme. Cutters to the N and W the main storm track for the foreseeable future. This may or may not be the dominant pattern the entire winter....I wish I could say one way or the other. What I can tell you is that it will take a major stratospheric warming event in the right place to dislodge that stratospheric PV over N Central Canada and change this pattern and those events are hard to come by and not often well forecast. And even if we do get a SSWE it doesnt mean the pattern will just flip and become favorable. Alot has to go right for us to break out of where ALL guidance has us heading for the next 3 weeks. Sucks we are wasting a huge chunk of climatologically favorable time of year for winter weather. Wish I had better news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Yes it looks like 3 weeks a mostly above average temps. Can't seem to get a cold holiday anymore. Anyone notice the air pressure? Is it really 1040mb? thats pretty darn high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Just did some reading online about SWE's as I admittedly don't know as much as others here probably do. The biggest problem that I see with getting a SWE to flip the pattern is that there is generally a 30-45 day lag time in real weather. So "IF" the LR guidance is right on the +AO/+NAO torchy pattern thru mid January and "IF" we rely on a SWE to flip the pattern and "IF" that SWE takes place mid January (which no progs I see even suggest at this point) and "IF" that SWE takes place in the right spot in our Hemisphere, then we would possibly be looking to at least mid February before we see apparent weather influences in our part of the world. Whole lotta ifs and of course a huge SLP anomaly could shift the pattern somewhere but with such a strong stratospheric PV locked in place for the foreseeable future, it will likely take more than just a big storm to significantly shift the pattern. No panic, it is what it is, but things look poor in the LR IMHO....no sugar-coating it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 AN temp departure maps for the next 3 weeks is off the charts. We're talking open windows in the house in early January type weather. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Last time we had deep cold before Christmas was 2005. We just kept getting warmer Christmas and beyond and of course the warmest January on record or close to it. The pop up thundershowers a few times that month were freaky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 I could use a year off.....perhaps I won't need to take my blower out of storage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Daffodils are going to end up out of the ground again in January, last year they were decimated in the spring from later freezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Snow in the Sahara desert first time in 37 years. There always seem to be these rare snows in the news on our bad winters... \ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 So, lock this thread till February at the earliest regarding cold temps/snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Some better signals for a pattern change with N Atl blocking showing up on the GEFS for the LR. GEFS even have a signal for possible wintry weather sometime around the 30th of December with a ridge out West and a trof diving into the Mississippi Valley. Maybe we can muster a rogue/transient snow event in this midst of the "thaw"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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