Fields27 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Even with the gfs verbatim this storm has a chance to be the biggest storm this "winter" imby. Nam is on its own. Is the writing now on the wall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 GFS at h5, the trof digs more, is stronger, yet still further south. Certainly more phasing. It's a stay up for the king night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 I fully expect to wake up at 6 am tomorrow to "euro caves to gfs". "Euro is a bust" "euro is a southern slider". Pretty much sums up this horrible winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: I fully expect to wake up at 6 am tomorrow to "euro caves to gfs". "Euro is a bust" "euro is a southern slider". Pretty much sums up this horrible winter. Think your winter is bad that area is close to 50% normal snowfall for winter and could make seasonal average in one bomb this month, I sit at 15% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 UK a solid hit, GEFS look awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 hours ago, Philadelphia Snow said: I fully expect to wake up at 6 am tomorrow to "euro caves to gfs". "Euro is a bust" "euro is a southern slider". Pretty much sums up this horrible winter. Euro is a 4-6" hit for everybody in the region, including outside the region in NYC and down to DC lol It's the NAM shifted 50 miles south and the usual rule 50% less qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Is it wrong to be pessimistic based on the way this season has gone and last minute trends? I realize many of us are staring the biggest snowfall of the season in the face this morning, but with 48 hours to go....that's an eternity. Im still struggling with BL concerns going from 60F to accumulating snow 8-10 hours later. If this happens, and the LR late season turnaround is real, y'all can thank me for sending my snowblower to the scrapmetal yard as a sacrifice for the region :-DNow lets get 12z to hold course! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 P.S. Chesco Paul....please do not make a specific event discussion thread for this threat.....only an obs threat when it is imminent. Trust me on this ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 CRAS trended towards the Euro.....big shift. Good sign there. 6z NAM and GFS getting better. Looking like a general 3-6" event in extreme SE PA right now as a model avg. Farther North LV etc 5-10". Upstate PA 12"+? Gonna be a slurpee snow down this way but beggars cant be choosers....getting the flavored syrups ready! :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Maybe I will be right in the cross hairs of this storm instead of looking to my north or south like every other storm this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Is it wrong to be pessimistic based on the way this season has gone and last minute trends? I realize many of us are staring the biggest snowfall of the season in the face this morning, but with 48 hours to go....that's an eternity. Im still struggling with BL concerns going from 60F to accumulating snow 8-10 hours later. If this happens, and the LR late season turnaround is real, y'all can thank me for sending my snowblower to the scrapmetal yard as a sacrifice for the region :-D Now lets get 12z to hold course! Fair to have some cautious optimism. Crazier things have happened. Good consensus overall, now it primarily comes down to how much the low flexes its muscles and when. Stronger makes it tuck in more but dynamics at peak offset low location. 12z here we come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Color me skeptic for Philly S+E. Seen this before where extreme high temperatures the day before + storm starting off as rain and leading to people upset at busted forecast. I would be shocked if anything more than 2-4" happened S+E of the city, while considerably higher numbers could occur N+W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 My heaviest snowfall so far has been 1.75" on Jan 7 so 2-3" would be great. With the warm temps forecast tomorrow I expect there will be quite a lot of initial snow melt. On the bright side for me is that once again it looks like most of the snow will occur during daylight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 My biggest snow was 2.25". Would be very happy with a 3" storm this year. Ratios will stink but whatever....we can work with 8:1-10:1 and still get a nice thump out of this. Would be nice if we can end this run of sugary confection snows, ie, dipping dots and slurpees. Been an odd year for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 12z NAM ticking South with slip at 36hrs vs 6z run. Slightly juicier system. This should bode well for SE PA in later panels..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 NAM has us at 61F in SE PA at 1pm tomorrow. Didn't see mos text output yet. That would setup the Wiggum Rule with potentially the quickest turnaround I've seen. For those that want to know what the Wiggum Rule is, I've logged 60F+ days Jan 1-Feb 15 for 9 years and noted there is a 9 out of 10 probability of some sort of snow in SE PA within 5 days following those 60F readings. That logged data was taken from my current locale in Bucks from 2010-present. Formerly taken from Clifton Heights/Secane Delco 2008-2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 NAM qpf bomb incoming...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 NAM looks like a 4-7 hour-ish thump of heavy precip, much of it a wet pasting of snow. Awaiting totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 NAM is a general widespread 4-8" event across SE PA. Crap....I'm gonna need a snowblower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Sorry, I had to. It gives MBY the jackpot: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: NAM is a general widespread 4-8" event across SE PA. Crap....I'm gonna need a snowblower. Screw it. Either shovel or let it melt which should be pretty quick. Lowes and Home Depot will start slashing prices in the not too distant future. The high of 60+ tomorrow before the event is irking the helluva out of me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4k is LV jackpot 18.8" hahahaSent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 How much of this snow will melt hitting the ground with the temps being above freezing for so long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, Newman said: Sorry, I had to. It gives MBY the jackpot: Bingo we are right there in the jackpot zone, I remember before last years snow storm we were in the jackpot for 3' @ 7 days only to loose it @ 6 days then it came back 48 hrs. prior to the storm and we were in jackpot for sure ended up with 37". Here is to hoping but getting to excited just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: How much of this snow will melt hitting the ground with the temps being above freezing for so long? Well according To Mt Holly's AFD this morning the heaviest snow should be around daybreak could approach 1" per hour for a few hours. But to answer your question rates will overcome surface temps at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: P.S. Chesco Paul....please do not make a specific event discussion thread for this threat.....only an obs threat when it is imminent. Trust me on this ;-) will not..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 This will be a good test for the nam after it's stellar permormance with last years blizzard. People don't seem to be bad mouthing it as much this winter. It has been pretty much locked on it's solution for the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 So sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, wkd said: So sweet! Looks like the GFS is picking up what the NAM is putting down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 We now have a pretty good consensus building. Maybe excluding the 12K nam. I'm guessing if the Euro holds serve we will see watches go up. Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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