Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 This is trending quicker and warmer. NAM is a cold rain, nary a flake. In and out by very early Thursday AM. Speed of i coming impulse doesnt allow cold air to bleed in. Never liked these situations where we are waiting for the cold air to arrive....usually doesnt pan out. Not impressed. GFS up next.Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 GFS looks good for north and west, though it does look like the cold air has retreated some. My issue is that the r/s line is probably going to be very tight, and if this winter finishes off with 33 and rainy that will be just a final kick to a blah season. Some areas of my lawn are already starting to grow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 GFS took a 150 mile jump NW and is MUCH warmer BL this run yet somehow drops 10-12" of slop in SE PA over 6 hours after the cold air bleeds in. That is about as unlikely a scenario you may ever see happen: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 RedSky GFS 11" bullseye!Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Track is similar to 06z, but qpf is .75" more over the 24hr period. Maybe increased precip rates dropping the cold air? Either way, what ever snow falls will definitely be below 10-1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 I'll take my GFS kuchera 8" and run ☃️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 10 mile shift and I go from 6" to 0". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 8" and the GFS locked into the scenario just 72hrs away giving me zero confidence is quite sad. Don't fall for it the GEM has nothing...anywhere..Weak low pressure scooting off South Carolina. What is happening to the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 UKMET somewhat agrees with GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Good news is yes crazy uncle has the storm, bad news is it's rain south of the Lehigh Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, RedSky said: Good news is yes crazy uncle has the storm, bad news is it's rain south of the Lehigh Valley. Time to work that out with three days to play with! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, snowwors2 said: Time to work that out with three days to play with! Euro had better come in like Tom Brady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 GEFS lend credence to a hit, to the point any more north trend would not be pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 ECM is a modest hit and a counter balance to the too far north GFS, dare I say this is becoming interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 hours ago, snowwors2 said: I'll take my GFS kuchera 8" and run ☃️ And.....the EC agrees 4-8" and colder than the GFS!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Dr. No becoming Dr. Yes!!?!?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Navgem is a monster. Might go snowblower shopping today....maybe snag a late-season discount! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Meh, 6z gfs is about an inch of slush and the cras has the slp West of Buffalo with mid 50s and rain showers so yeah.Snowblower shopping plans on hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Navgem is a monster. Might go snowblower shopping today....maybe snag a late-season discount! Can you post a pic of NAVGEM? Wouldn't fret the 6z GFS, the 12z will bring it back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Nevermind I found NAVGEM, same thing as GFS, it was a beast @ 00z & weaker @ 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Nevermind I found NAVGEM, same thing as GFS, it was a beast @ 00z & weaker @ 6z Yeah 6z wasnt out when I posted, was going off of 0z. CMC doesnt even have a surface wave so there's that. Have a hunch the final outcome is going to be weak sauce with folks South of LV praying for heavier rates and a changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 After looking the 6z navgem, track took quite a shift South....far enough South it keeps us all mostly snow. Has quite an expansive precip shield to the N and W of the slp and snow (light) lingers quite a bit longer as upper level energy passes over. Another interesting solution. Models have almost every possible scenario and we r only 72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Don't get invested yet 6z runs show how much this can change, this thing is so close and fast behind the bigger storm in California that becomes the big rainer into the lakes it has Lucy written all over it for us have to give it another 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 We're about to get NAM'd at 12z. Good trend on that model anyway. Gonna be walking the tightrope here with this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 I will take my 6-8" of NAM digital snow and welcome an early spring on Friday if this were to verify! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I will take my 6-8" of NAM digital snow and welcome an early spring on Friday if this were to verify! Really, what's the point? Either snow and have at least a 4-7 day cold spell to enjoy it or just stay 50F til spring and call winter over. Between shoveling/snow blowing/ scraping/car looking like white crap.... is it worth it for a day or so? IMO...no, unless it's a massive hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Ukmet much improved further south likely yielding the NAM or ECM solution. GEM said hey look at where all the big boys are and came 500 miles north, not there but trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Euro pastes I95 and Monmouth County with 4-6" of screws us north and westers with an inch yeah this is probably the right solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 GFS or Euro? Let's just split the two and call it a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 12z GFS has the higher accumulation off to my NW and 12z Euro has them off to my SE. I like where I'm sitting right now ... at least for the next 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.