ChescoWx Posted February 2, 2017 Author Share Posted February 2, 2017 Here in NW Chester County PA - January ended with an average temp of 35.4 +5.7 above normal - this is the 12th warmest January in the last 123 years of county weather records. The warmest since the 38.4 back in 2006 Snow wise only 6.1" of snow (5.8" below Jan norms) which puts us now 11.7" below what should be normal snow season to date of 18.6" Good news is rainfall of 3.90" was 0.10" above normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Phil saw his shadow... don't throw in the towel yet LoL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 I gotta be honest, I woke up expecting to see a storm brewing on the models. Not sure why. Officially getting to the point where I am losing hope for any snow days this year. 2 more weeks and I will say, bring on spring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Stuff like right now is why I absolutely hate this winter. The radar has shown a band of snow stalled over me for an hour now, and not even one sign of a flake. When its cold, its dry. When its warm, its wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 51 minutes ago, Newman said: Stuff like right now is why I absolutely hate this winter. The radar has shown a band of snow stalled over me for an hour now, and not even one sign of a flake. When its cold, its dry. When its warm, its wet. I can remember the days of my youth, back in the early days of the weather channel, when I'd be coming unglued as to why the radar showed that it was snowing when not a single flake was falling. Of course back then, I didn't have a great understanding of how the atmosphere worked or knew about virga or what it was, I just knew it wasn't snowing when the radar "said" it was... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 3 hours ago, Tibet said: Phil saw his shadow... don't throw in the towel yet LoL Of course his forecasts only verify 39% of the time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 how we looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 2 hours ago, Voyager said: I can remember the days of my youth, back in the early days of the weather channel, when I'd be coming unglued as to why the radar showed that it was snowing when not a single flake was falling. Of course back then, I didn't have a great understanding of how the atmosphere worked or knew about virga or what it was, I just knew it wasn't snowing when the radar "said" it was... I remember that happening out my way couple years ago the radar showed snow clear back to the great lakes south to the Mason Dixon line east to the Pa/Nj boarder It was reaching the ground West, South and even to the East in my area in was a virga storm for 3hrs. It was maddening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 On 2/1/2017 at 9:18 AM, Voyager said: Indeed...lol. Many of us (myself included) in the summer hope for hurricanes, severe storms, and derechos. How many people really want that except for us nutty weather geeks? It is screwed up thinking/logic......go figure? If there is a severe T-Storm Warning with red echos on radar....I'm pumped! I'll stay up all night....really messed up..lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Hopefully the 18z GFS had some ensemble support. Will post in 2 hours when it comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Hopefully the 18z GFS had some ensemble support. Will post in 2 hours when it comes out. Support for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 28 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Support for? The day 7-8 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 The day 7-8 storm.GEFS support the Euro op....no storm. Most of country dominated by strong HP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Well with the exception of MAYBE a little accumulation Monday Night into early Tuesday only to be washed away shortly after. I'm pushing the the Bring on Spring button, I'm not sure about anybody else but from what I've read and just going by the overall trends this season It's not looking favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Snowstorm hits the United Arab Emirates what a winter over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 GEFS/EPS/GFS op/ Euro op all say bye bye winter in the LR. Groundhog looks wrong again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 No surprise with possibly the most positive AO NAO combo all time and the +EPO nasty Pacific flow winter has become a full scale disaster for us. It's the polar opposite of 2014 when the other side of the world had their mildest least snowy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 I don't think we should give up on possible storm development next weekend. After losing it for a number of runs the GFS is bringing it back even thought it is well SE and OTS. Anyway, if nothing else happens this winter I am glad to see California getting abundant rain and snow after years of drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just got back from the scrap metal yard and I dropped off most of the pieces of my snowblower. Will re-invest in a new one next season.....maybe. Of course as soon as I get in and pop online, this pops up. Im not overly optimistic for this one though as the preceding airmass is garbage and we are praying for bleeding cold air to turn rain to snow. If we can slow the STJ a hair.....maybe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Just got back from the scrap metal yard and I dropped off most of the pieces of my snowblower. Will re-invest in a new one next season.....maybe. Of course as soon as I get in and pop online, this pops up. Im not overly optimistic for this one though as the preceding airmass is garbage and we are praying for bleeding cold air to turn rain to snow. If we can slow the STJ a hair.....maybe: As a practical matter how often does this set up work out? Probably not too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, bigtenfan said: As a practical matter how often does this set up work out? Probably not too often. I dont have precise stats for this BUT I can tell you it is rare. Even in a best cast scenario, a progressive system like this relying on cold air filtering in to change rain to snow *might* yield an inch or so of slush on grassy surfaces. That is taken at face value as per the GFS. Of course the Euro says the trof amplifies and goes negative but does so too far East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMB78 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 fantastic track on the 6z gfs. I'd like to see it trend a little bit stronger to help overcome that airmass. Nice to have something to track though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 12z GFS is a bit faster, flatter, and weaker. Also colder. Still a 3-4" snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMB78 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 shortwave a good bit weaker on 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 I have little interest unless it makes it inside 24hrs and every model including the Korean and French is on board. I am like Stephen Hawking trying to kick the football at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 16 minutes ago, RedSky said: I have little interest unless it makes it inside 24hrs and every model including the Korean and French is on board. I am like Stephen Hawking trying to kick the football at this point. I've given up completely. Just want a below Spring and Summer (temps and hopefully T-storms) then reboot for next season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 11 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: I've given up completely. Just want a below Spring and Summer (temps and hopefully T-storms) then reboot for next season... Post Valentines Day I want it to be 65F unless it's a high end SECS or larger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMB78 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 I've been grasping at straws for weeks now lol. I need something to hold me over til next winter. Missed the blizzard last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 5, 2017 Author Share Posted February 5, 2017 Wxsim for NW Chester County PA with 12z NAM and 6z GFS blend 0.70" we of snow overnight but only around 4" accumulating with temps hovering just above freezing for much of the "event" - it will change with the next run... Wednesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming cloudy after midnight. Patchy light fog after midnight. A slight chance of rain in the evening, then a mix of snow and rain likely after midnight. Low 32. Wind chill ranging from 26 to 45. Wind north-northeast around 4 mph in the evening, becoming 8 mph, gusting to 15 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Thursday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. Snow likely. High 35. Wind chill around 27. Wind north-northeast around 9 mph, gusting to 20 mph, in the morning, becoming north-northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow accumulation around 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Euro real close to a hit for the same areas that are the only ones with hits this winter lol just needs to be a pinch colder An 80's winter pumped with steroids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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