ChescoWx Posted January 28, 2017 Author Share Posted January 28, 2017 Through yesterday our average temp is running at 35.9 here in NW Chesco - if the month ended today this would be the 13th warmest in the counties history since records began in 1894 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Next two weeks is make or break time to salvage something from winter. Not great but decent pattern and cold enough to snow most of the time during the time of year that is most conducive for flakes. Should at the very least score a couple inches and that would be worst case scenario everything goes wrong. Would be nice to score more than say one moderate size event and throw in a clipper or two but I won't be picky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 5 hours ago, RedSky said: Next two weeks is make or break time to salvage something from winter. Not great but decent pattern and cold enough to snow most of the time during the time of year that is most conducive for flakes. Should at the very least score a couple inches and that would be worst case scenario everything goes wrong. Would be nice to score more than say one moderate size event and throw in a clipper or two but I won't be picky. I echo this. Pattern looks 'ok'.....certainly isnt screaming HECS or anything but as u said, if we are going to end up near avg for the season, this next stretch thru mid Feb is crucial. We can still get there, it aint over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 I'd pay $50 for a 2-4" event for late afternoon through overnight next Sunday during the Superbowl... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: I'd pay $50 for a 2-4" event for late afternoon through overnight next Sunday during the Superbowl... I just outbid ya!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Just now, snowwors2 said: I just outbid ya!! Going $100 now! But it must include 25mph+ winds! Horizontal snowflakes are a must... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Just now, Birds~69 said: Going $100 now! But it must include 25mph+ winds! Horizontal snowflakes are a must... Lol...agreed...its a "draw"!! NBC10 will handle the complete temperature coverage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Horrid new GFS run makes me want to run down the street screaming 80's winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Both GFS and CMC showing a primary to Pittsburgh before a transfer to the coast... with enough cold air around for a significant snow on the front end before a changeover. Euro keeps a weak low to our south, suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 8 hours ago, RedSky said: Horrid new GFS run makes me want to run down the street screaming 80's winters 6Z even worse. Winter (did we even have one?) may be taking it's last gasp. Ensemble teleconnections did a 180 with little to nothing really favorable to show. Maybe some minor ridging trying to nose poleward but with a +NAO/-PNA/+EPO and the MJO in the COD, it's really a poor outlook if one is trying to salvage any hope of winter in the East. Let's hope it's a blip and it flips back as quickly as it did before, but we all know how it goes......when it's favorable it doesnt last, when it's an unfavorable flip it usually locks in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 29 minutes ago, AnthonyDabbundo said: Both GFS and CMC showing a primary to Pittsburgh before a transfer to the coast... with enough cold air around for a significant snow on the front end before a changeover. Euro keeps a weak low to our south, suppressed. I've never really been gung ho about this 'threat' window. See my other posts.....I think we are either headed cutter with a brief thump to rain (South of LV) or a track that is right under us which yields too much WAA and mid 30s/rain. Hope I'm wrong, just basing this on similar setups since October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Good to see the GFS and the ECM are forecasting for a different planet. I like the GFS better this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 GFS pulled off two runs in a row giving us snow a bit less than 6z but 4-6" through the region. Canadian agrees! Zero margin of error however for a north trend as both change to mix. Good timing snow comes in during super bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 GEFS snow us hard on the superbowl only several members a light hit lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 and the ECM says GFS and CMC are crazy no super bowl storm for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Meanwhile a blizzard has hit Jordan. Epic winter on the other side continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 7 hours ago, RedSky said: and the ECM says GFS and CMC are crazy no super bowl storm for you 18z gfs trending the wrong way as is cmc and others. Big hp settles over Tennessee Valley late week then as hp moves East the system moving in behind the departing hp has a nice Bermuda high-ish return flow to work with. But alas....other subforums are all-in for the new day 10 Euro threat! All the players appear to be on the field for that one......including Lucy. We got this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Im thinking about breaking down the snowblower for the season and doing a tuneup/overhaul. Maybe that's the key! Im certain as soon as I have the Craftsman in 100 pieces, a massive storm will surface on the models out of nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Im thinking about breaking down the snowblower for the season and doing a tuneup/overhaul. Maybe that's the key! Im certain as soon as I have the Craftsman in 100 pieces, a massive storm will surface on the models out of nowhere. I haven't even brought mine up from the basement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 GFS another run with a super bowl hit, don't know if it is consistently bad or good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 i still like the super bowl threat. it's far from perfect, but still a pretty good set up for this time of the year. i suggest not living and dying with each model suite until thursday though. way too many things to be determined that just won't be hammered out until then. as I've said since last week, I think this upcoming period(feb 1-15th) will be our best chance to cash in with accumulating snow. also in regards to the long range, i've seen way too many winter cancel posts based off of one model run... the models are clearly struggling in the long range and it is way too early to determine whether or not winter is over after this stretch. they've literally flip flopped every run in the last few days. even the CFS has shown 8 different outcomes in it's last 8 runs. Still we have at least 2-3 solid threats for snow in the next 2 weeks. the mid week clipper could give us a minor event, the super bowl storm could bring us anything from a thump to rain, to ice, or even a solid snow storm..too early for those details, it's just good to see a storm on the horizon with some cold air around. obviously the closer we get, the better idea we'll have on how much of a threat it is. And after that the 8-9th time period is showing some potential as well for a significant event. Overall this is a much better pattern than what has occurred through winter thus far even if we don't cash in so I'm not really understanding the negativity. At least there is something to track unlike all of this winter save for 10 days in january where events were hammered out as rain 10 days in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 GFS with another good hit for the region I95 N&W 4-6" super snow bowl. The ECM is going to cave today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 minute ago, RedSky said: GFS with another good hit for the region I95 N&W 4-6" super snow bowl. The ECM is going to cave today It is pretty much 3-6 from I-95 NW. Not Northwest of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 UKMET not that good and GEFS look like the 0z EPS model inconsistencies are absurd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 ECM is coming on board the super bowl train lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 with all of the parts involved for this system, it's going to change with every model suite the next couple of days. important not to get too hyped or down on the threat until we get closer. probably won't get even close to a consensus until thursday-friday. the main thing i'm looking at right now is that the gfs and euro showing hits both make sense synoptically, but as is the shortwave timing is perfect allowing us to get a decent snow. that will be important to watch going forward. i expect many changes from now until thursday. my gut right now says this will be a lehigh valley special with SEPA getting an advisory snow and possibly changing over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Primary to Pittsburgh makes sense given the trot axis set up.. we need a storm strong enough to not get suppressed but not robust enough for WAA to overrun the region. If we thread the needle, will be a nice event. By Thursday I think we'll have a decent idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 8 hours ago, RedSky said: ECM is coming on board the super bowl train lol I dunno man.....looking more like a fropa with the main low near the Lakes. I dont think we win with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 5 hours ago, The Iceman said: with all of the parts involved for this system, it's going to change with every model suite the next couple of days. important not to get too hyped or down on the threat until we get closer. probably won't get even close to a consensus until thursday-friday. the main thing i'm looking at right now is that the gfs and euro showing hits both make sense synoptically, but as is the shortwave timing is perfect allowing us to get a decent snow. that will be important to watch going forward. i expect many changes from now until thursday. my gut right now says this will be a lehigh valley special with SEPA getting an advisory snow and possibly changing over. Thats essentially been my thinking now for 3 or 4 days. Hoping trends reverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 GFS turning into garbage for the SB chance today. The model that wins this year is the one with the least snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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