Newman Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 25 minutes ago, Treckasec said: The huge tease Matthew was has probably made me wanting more especially. Same. You live in NJ, so you feel more impact from hurricanes, but even living inland isn't that bad. We have had back to back years now with teases, those being Joaquin and Matthew. I can only imagine what would have happened if the trough picked up and phased with Joaquin instead of acting as a kicker. Would have been huge, bigger than Sandy, but probably unfortunately deadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, Newman said: Same. You live in NJ, so you feel more impact from hurricanes, but even living inland isn't that bad. We have had back to back years now with teases, those being Joaquin and Matthew. I can only imagine what would have happened if the trough picked up and phased with Joaquin instead of acting as a kicker. Would have been huge, bigger than Sandy, but probably unfortunately deadly. I'd feel impacts from hurricanes if we actually got them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 First snowfall for eastern Spain in 90 years. Winter is historic on the other side of the world this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 The table was set on this ratter winter with the record cold on the other side of the world in Siberia in October leading to historic snows through parts of Europe, the middle east and even Africa. Time to start hoping for a MECS or HECS in February to salvage a memory for it like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Nothing like a wasted noreaster to break my spirits. At least there is something to look at on the long range for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Sum of all winter fears impending with the cold returning along with dry the next 10 days. Does not look optimal beyond 10 days either. We may score one some time in February but this winter is a ratter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Its almost comical how cold and dry the weather will be for the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 1 hour ago, Newman said: Its almost comical how cold and dry the weather will be for the next 10 days. It's really not going to be "that cold"...basically within a couple degrees of average. But it will be dry. I'll enjoy the cold but any snow thoughts are going down the drain for the season. Maybe some slop or a 1-3" - 2-4"er...but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Winter 2012 8" in October season total -15" Winter 2017 .8" November season total - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 It has been an Interior/North winter so far where us in Eastern Pa on East and South have cashed in the last few years, Checks and balances I guess. The trend is what it is looking ahead not much to jump up and down about Hopefully we can squeeze out a couple more nickle and dime events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 My call for a close to avg snowfall season for SE PA looks like it will bust horribly unless something miraculous happens over the next 6 weeks. LR looks putrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 First half of February should feature 2 or 3 threats for snow. Whether they materialize is another thing. If we strike out in that period, then it's looking like a near certainty that everyone finishes below normal. Watch us finally get a -NAO/+PNA pattern in late march/early april though, just in time to give us 40s and rain for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 8 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: My call for a close to avg snowfall season for SE PA looks like it will bust horribly unless something miraculous happens over the next 6 weeks. LR looks putrid. From what I'm reading, elsewhere, from some very respectable mets., Feb 5-10th timeframe represents some decent potential for a significant system to effect our region!! Once again, lets face it, as crappy as this winter has been so far, February usually has plenty to offer and we need to trust the process!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 2 hours ago, snowwors2 said: From what I'm reading, elsewhere, from some very respectable mets., Feb 5-10th timeframe represents some decent potential for a significant system to effect our region!! Once again, lets face it, as crappy as this winter has been so far, February usually has plenty to offer and we need to trust the process!!! Sixers have a much better outlook than this Winter. And Glenn's temps/real feel BS for the entire weather segment tonight was driving me nuts. It seemed even worse since the winds the past several days....everything was about temps/real feel and nothing else. I can't believe they think people want to see this or it's the least bit informative? It's not bitter cold Glenn...it's above average! Quit hyping stuff. How about use the map(s) and talk about the pattern? And what's coming down the road? Rant.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 I'm actually hoping February is a torch with below average precip so I can get out on the golf course a little early this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 33 minutes ago, Newman said: I'm actually hoping February is a torch with below average precip so I can get out on the golf course a little early this year. This won't happen but the below average precip seems likely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Thank the stars we got the big bad blizzard last January because this would be the epic two winter ratter record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 11 hours ago, RedSky said: Thank the stars we got the big bad blizzard last January because this would be the epic two winter ratter record interesting trend we've had since the beginning of this decade. we have an epic winter 09-10 then an above average winter 10-11 followed by 2 ratters 11-13 followed by an epic winter 13-14 then an above average winter 14-15 now followed again by 2 ratters. while total wise last year wasn't really a huge bust because of the blizzard, it was pretty much a non existent winter which is why I consider it mostly a ratter despite the numbers. i mean last year was pretty close to 14-15 snow total wise but i think everyone can agree that 14-15 was 10x the winter of last year with a snow event pretty much every week and consistent cold. it had to had one of the most days with snowcover in our areas history despite the fact we never got the big one. it was just one refresher after another. last year winter was awful outside of 3 days so honestly i consider that event really a fluke even though the area technically was above average. so if we keep following this trend, next year should be an epic winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Interesting that Europe has been quite cold without any AO or NAO help. It is like our 2013-14 and 2014-15 winters where the massive ridge in the EPAC and west coast compensated for our lack of downstream blocking. I also wish i had the time to really look into the QBO and its implications, but I can never really wrap my brain around it, however it seems to be really screwing up our cold chances. I'm nearly writing this winter off since trends for Feb look disappointing. Happy we scored in early January with a plowable snow. That is my meager goal each winter since my climate is so different than most other's in this subforum. I keep expectations in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Just now, Redmorninglight said: Interesting that Europe has been quite cold without any AO or NAO help. It is like our 2013-14 and 2014-15 winters where the massive ridge in the EPAC and west coast compensated for our lack of downstream blocking. I also wish i had the time to really look into the QBO and its implications, but I can never really wrap my brain around it, however it seems to be really screwing up our cold chances. I'm nearly writing this winter off since trends for Feb look disappointing. Happy we scored in early January with a plowable snow. That is my meager goal each winter since my climate is so different than most other's in this subforum. I keep expectations in check. February will be decent for some areas and the first two weeks will be okay by your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Big 12z runs coming after 6z GFS brought winter back after yesterday most everything pointed to winter cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 hour ago, WEATHERBUFF said: February will be decent for some areas and the first two weeks will be okay by your area. At this point, I'm rooting for interior areas to get clobbered since we have 4 weekend ski trips through our school to the Poconos and I have a 5 day trip planned with my family in mid-February to Killington. Basically I would like to see a colder version of December before the holiday crinch torch. NNE got hammered and got off to a fantastic early ski season. It has since sputtered, but i remain optimistic for February at least in the mountains. The west needs a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 57 minutes ago, Redmorninglight said: At this point, I'm rooting for interior areas to get clobbered since we have 4 weekend ski trips through our school to the Poconos and I have a 5 day trip planned with my family in mid-February to Killington. Basically I would like to see a colder version of December before the holiday crinch torch. NNE got hammered and got off to a fantastic early ski season. It has since sputtered, but i remain optimistic for February at least in the mountains. The west needs a break. Where I live we did well with snow in December. In January we still have been getting snow but it's been a bit less than average for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 The cold and dry/warm and wet pattern continues. The 12z GFS is a real kick to the junk. This may be the driest 384 hour total accum precip map I have ever seen for my area. Wake me up after Valentine's Day so I can start tracking severe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 It will be completely different in 6hrs. 6z gave me like a foot of snow through the run. Of course the 18z might give us 4" rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Of course we'd have a return of Lucy for a storm on Super Bowl weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 19 minutes ago, shemATC said: Of course we'd have a return of Lucy for a storm on Super Bowl weekend. If it fits the 10-day Euro pattern since October when showing this sort of setup, the low in the Lakes will eventually become more of a player and the storm will either end up cutting to the West or be close enough that the Great Lakes low has an influence on temps yielding a 33 and rain scenario. I don't see any catalyst that will alter the pattern and make this any different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The cold and dry/warm and wet pattern continues. The 12z GFS is a real kick to the junk. This may be the driest 384 hour total accum precip map I have ever seen for my area. Wake me up after Valentine's Day so I can start tracking severe: So umm, check the 18z yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 40 minutes ago, RedSky said: So umm, check the 18z yet? It will be completely different in 6 hours. ;-) Seriously though, you and I both know (based on the pattern past 14 weeks give or take) that next Sunday will probably trend for the worse...I hate to be the debbie downer but it's pretty easy to see. Perhaps the idea of a true cutter may be diminishing (for now) but as with other events, I can still see this trend towards ending up too close for comfort and going thump to rain for both of us. Would fit the pattern and seasonal trend perfectly as I posted earlier in here. Heck, the GFS is nowhere near what I want to see it at this range. I prefer a flatter wave farther S and E on the GFS, not amped up kissing the Delmarva like the 18z shows. We both know that slp will end up N and W of where the Euro and GFS have it. Whats that old saying about being in the bullseye at this range?? Fingers crossed we can buck the seasonal pattern but Im not overly optimistic at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 I think the gfs is just trolling us. 18z gives us back a hit, but at 240hrs. It's like a carrot on a stick. It will take it away and then give it back....at 240hrs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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