EPA/NJ/DE General Winter Discussions

[Birds~69]

Glenn only w/2-3 high temps in the 40's (upper) and the rest in the 50's in his 10 day. Sun night through Mon is a washout w/winds...

[RedSky]

Came in from the woods today and had a tick on me!

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Yesterday, I ran some teleconnection-related data for EPO-/PNA+/AO+ patterns (which appears likely to begin February) for the February 1-15, 1981-2010 period for New York City. Today, corresponding data for Philadelphia is posted here.

Briefly, the 500 mb patterns and temperature anomalies involved were broken into two subsets (one in which the EPO and PNA offset the AO+, the other where the AO+ exerted the dominant influence on the synoptic pattern).

The former subset provided the coldest, snowiest outcome. The frequency of measurable snowfalls and 4" or greater snowfalls for that subset was well above climatology for the entire 1981-2010 period.

NOTE: The reference to 32.5% under Mean Temperature should read 32.5°. I regret the error.

 

[RedSky]

Nice work Don an advantageous winter window coming for the areas climatologically snowiest time of year. 

Weather World agrees predicting a majority of February days through mid month below normal.

 

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

had at-least 0.25 ice all over this morning...temps finally got above freezing around 10am.        

probably a more severe icestorm here Sunday night / Monday.    temps always bust out here, with that flow. 

[Hurricane Agnes]

37 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yesterday, I ran some teleconnection-related data for EPO-/PNA+/AO+ patterns (which appears likely to begin February) for the February 1-15, 1981-2010 period for New York City. Today, corresponding data for Philadelphia is posted here.

Briefly, the 500 mb patterns and temperature anomalies involved were broken into two subsets (one in which the EPO and PNA offset the AO+, the other where the AO+ exerted the dominant influence on the synoptic pattern).

The former subset provided the coldest, snowiest outcome. The frequency of measurable snowfalls and 4" or greater snowfalls for that subset was well above climatology for the entire 1981-2010 period.

NOTE: The reference to 32.5% under Mean Temperature should read 32.5°. I regret the error.

 

Thanks for the analysis Don!  Good to see you pop in here.  If anything, at least the current pattern is putting a dent in the west coast drought. 

[Birds~69]

Yo Don, thanks for posting! I usually drop by the MA and NY forum and read your post. Glad you dropped by...

 

[donsutherland1]

59 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Thanks for the analysis Don!  Good to see you pop in here.  If anything, at least the current pattern is putting a dent in the west coast drought. 

Thanks. Hopefully, the pattern will, in fact, evolve into a more wintry one. I agree about the easing of the West Coast drought.

[bigtenfan]

13 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Thanks. Hopefully, the pattern will, in fact, evolve into a more wintry one. I agree about the easing of the West Coast drought.

Great to see you posting on the Philly forum. Many times I go to the NYC forum just to read your posts. You are truly one of the class acts on this board.

[donsutherland1]

20 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

Great to see you posting on the Philly forum. Many times I go to the NYC forum just to read your posts. You are truly one of the class acts on this board.

Thanks for the kind words.

[donsutherland1]

FWIW, hours 288-384 on the 18z GFS ensembles depict a 500 mb pattern over North America that is similar to the composite for EPO-/PNA+/AO+ pattern where the EPO and PNA dominate.

[penndotguy]

Hey on a bright note I've only gone through 3/4 cord of wood so far, normal is 2 cords per year.  

[Newman]

Huge change on the 12z GFS. Storm is more progressive at first and doesn't cut as much, leading to a stronger cold press from the high north and the storm is slightly more OTS:

[donsutherland1]

The GFS has trended toward a snowier outcome. Taken literally, the 12z GFS could bring some snow into at least Philadelphia's suburbs. I ran statistical probabilities for Philadelphia based on the forecast synoptic pattern (EPO-/PNA+/AO+) for the January 24 +/- 5-day 1981-2010 period for reference. North and west of Philadelphia, the snowfall probabilities would increase.

Statistical Snowfall Probabilities for Philadelphia:
No snowfall: 40%
< 1” snow: 65%
1” or more snow: 35%
2” or more snow: 15%
4” or more snow: 1%

 

[The Iceman]

The overperformer 2 weeks ago really has saved winter here in levittown. We have 8.8" on the year which is around normal at this point and considering we've only had 2 weeks of winter this year, I'd say we ve cashed in on our chances. Normal here is like 21.3" for the year. With how February is shaping up in the LR, I'm pretty confident we ll at least get to normal here on the year. The pattern has been pretty PAC driven and with a shift to a +PNA in the next 10 days or so, I have a feeling we get at least 2 moderate events in Feb through March with some nusciance events thrown in. I agree with dons(great write up btw) that the PNA will drive this pattern. Also, we are forecasted to see a SSW event next week. We had small one in November that correlated to an average December temp wise despite the warm spell late month. This one will be stronger than the one in November. Interesting enough 09-10 also had 2 SSW events, one in November and another stronger one in late January. Those 2 factors make me pretty confident that February will be pretty good for us. I'm not calling for a repeat of that ridiculous Feb 2010 but a pattern that produces even a quarter of that amount would mean a couple decent snows for the area. The key differences are that the nao and ao will be positive unlike 2010. To me this means that suppression will most likely be off the table like we saw with those monster storms in 2010, and im thinking that the NW area will do the best out of everyone because of this. This also makes it fairly likely that storms will be progressive limiting the likelihood of a 12+" storm. Thinking we'll see a few 6-12" storm chances though. I'm fairly confident that February will be above normal snow region wide. In fact, I'd be shocked if we were below normal snow for February. Will be interesting to watch the NAO and AO going forward. I think there's a pretty good chance that they both go negative towards the end of winter so that when the PNA pattern collapses we may still have a cool pattern into spring. All in all im liking the 2nd half of winter and would be outright shocked if we end with a ratter and the area well below normal snow wise.

[The Iceman]

The mon-Tues storm has Lehigh valley/Pocono special written all over it. Don't think there's enough cold air for philly area and most of jersey to get in the action. Best case scenario is a slushy inch or 2 there imo 

[RedSky]

How inconvenient a storm with a great track and moisture supply perfectly timed with cold air evacuated from North America and  tepid polar high pressure. Reminds me of 2012 and 1998. 

 

 

[RedSky]

Drought fading fast next system will keep that on track.

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The GFS has trended toward a snowier outcome. Taken literally, the 12z GFS could bring some snow into at least Philadelphia's suburbs. I ran statistical probabilities for Philadelphia based on the forecast synoptic pattern (EPO-/PNA+/AO+) for the January 24 +/- 5-day 1981-2010 period for reference. North and west of Philadelphia, the snowfall probabilities would increase.

Statistical Snowfall Probabilities for Philadelphia:
No snowfall: 40%
< 1” snow: 65%
1” or more snow: 35%
2” or more snow: 15%
4” or more snow: 1%

 

Don, thank you for your contributions to this subforum. You are always a welcome addition to this small group!

[donsutherland1]

39 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Don, thank you for your contributions to this subforum. You are always a welcome addition to this small group!

Thanks Ralph.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

another interesting , borderline situation here tomorrow.     nice radiational cooling will get temps down in the 20's tonight...temps will be slow to rise with the cloud cover....and hovering between 31 and 33 most of the day and night Friday..... the same with the column up to 8,000 feet...and even colder past that.  so even a mix of sleet / snow isn't out of the question initially.  But generally expecting frz rain here tomorrow...and 'maybe' get above freezing early saturday morning.    

for the monday / tuesday event...i'm expecting temps even colder here...with a new High building in.  

[shemATC]

23 hours ago, RedSky said:

Came in from the woods today and had a tick on me!

 

 

I can only hope we get some massive cold spell to kill those little buggers off.  Only good thing about a thaw in the middle of winter is that it puts a dent in the insect population, provided the cold comes back at some point.

[RedSky]

35 minutes ago, shemATC said:

I can only hope we get some massive cold spell to kill those little buggers off.  Only good thing about a thaw in the middle of winter is that it puts a dent in the insect population, provided the cold comes back at some point.

I don't understand it because it was cold as 10F just over a week ago and near freezing most nights since. Never witnessed those suckers out in January.

 

 

[Birds~69]

Ticks suck. I do a lot of fishing in the Spring/Summer and I'm always paranoid a couple of those bastards are clinging on me. Usually in my hair even though I wear a baseball cap...

[mcwx]

On 1/18/2017 at 4:22 PM, Bluescat1 said:

On the bright side it looks like my rosemary plant is going to survive, it is still green and vibrant.

Where do you have it sighted? Near a building w/ sun reflecting off it? 

[snowwors2]

This works...

Mono county- including the cities of bridgeport and mammoth lakes 1234 PM PST thu jan 19 2017

...Winter storm warning remains in effect until 4 AM PST Monday...

The national weather service in reno has issued a winter storm warning for heavy snow and gusty winds ... which is in effect until 4 AM PST Monday. The winter weather advisory is no longer in effect. The winter weather advisory is no longer in effect.

* Timing: snow showers will continue west of 395 today with snow increasing for all areas Friday into Saturday morning. Another short break is expected Saturday afternoon and evening before the strongest of the three storms arrives Saturday night and continues into Monday morning.

* Snow accumulations through Monday morning: 3 to 6 feet above 8000 feet with locally up to 8 feet on the sierra crest. 1 to 3 feet along highway 395 with most of the snow falling Saturday night through Sunday night.

* Winds: southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph through Saturday. A period with gusts to 55 mph is possible Saturday night and Sunday. Sierra ridge winds gusting up to 100 mph through Saturday and up to 140 mph Saturday night into Sunday.

* Impacts: expect hazardous travel conditions due to snow coveredroads and periods of lower visibility from wind driven snow. Expect areas of blizzard conditions late Saturday night through Sunday evening. Travel may become impossible Sunday.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Avoid travel if possible ... you could be stuck in your vehicle for many hours. If you must travel ... use the breaks in the storm today and Saturday afternoon ... but long delays are likely and carry an emergency kit with extra food ... water and clothing. If you stay home ... have a backup plan in case of extended power outages and use the breaks in the storm for snow removal and storm preparation.

 

[Bluescat1]

10 hours ago, mcwx said:

Where do you have it sighted? Near a building w/ sun reflecting off it? 

I have it next to my deck, with good southern exposure. I covered it with a clear trash bag those couple of cold days and snow that we had.

 

[RedSky]

All the good signals for February coming up lemons the last couple of days I hope it's just noise. Fear winter pattern persistence.

 

 

 

[Newman]

Not going to lie, I actually like this upcoming wind and rain storm. I'm a much bigger hurricane junkie and this will at least be kind of similar. Obviously I'm not calling this a hurricane, but I love me some wind driven rain.

[Treckasec]

1 hour ago, Newman said:

Not going to lie, I actually like this upcoming wind and rain storm. I'm a much bigger hurricane junkie and this will at least be kind of similar. Obviously I'm not calling this a hurricane, but I love me some wind driven rain.

You're not the only one

I've been noticing a lot of disappointed people on the forums who've been expecting a blizzard when the storm is trending towards a windy, warm, and rainy nor'easter. I've never been expecting snow from this storm, especially because of my location, so I've been getting pumped up for the prospect of high winds on Monday. Like you, I really like hurricanes and windstorms. My favorite weather has always been wind. I've been antsy for a storm for a while now like the March 2010 nor'easter. The huge tease Matthew probably made me wanting more especially. Hopefully the upcoming storm can bring us the big gusts and rains we want!