Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 "Wiggum Rule" in effect. When high temps in the heart of winter in SE PA hit at least 60, expect wintry precipitation at some point within the next 5 days. Works 95% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: "Wiggum Rule" in effect. When high temps in the heart of winter in SE PA hit at least 60, expect wintry precipitation at some point within the next 5 days. Works 95% of the time. I've doubted this in the past but it strangely verifies most of the time lol its why I am pretty certain we get something Saturday. Pattern warms up next week and may last 2 weeks but it actually looks like things are falling into place for the 2nd half of winter. I don't think the pattern change will be here in full effect in a week to ten days, think it will be more like 14 days, maybe a little after even. imo these things always take longer to arrive than modeled but the good news is that still leaves us in the heart of winter instead of banking on it to change say at the end of February. I think almost everyone here will reach at least average snow fall on the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Currently 66.3F. Makes me want to take the Sea-Doo out....until I remember that the water will kill me in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Now snow on the southern beaches of Italy in Salento. What on earth is going on here. Italian Nostradamus? https://www.rt.com/viral/373385-italy-snow-prophecy-end-world/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 WOW...This truly gave me the chills and uncontrollable laughter...and be sure to check out the webcams (and we're praying for 1") ☃️ http://www.mammothmountain.com/winter/mountain-information/mountain-information/snow-conditions-and-weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 4 hours ago, snowwors2 said: WOW...This truly gave me the chills and uncontrollable laughter...and be sure to check out the webcams (and we're praying for 1") ☃️ http://www.mammothmountain.com/winter/mountain-information/mountain-information/snow-conditions-and-weather I saw a video yesterday from up there the snow was piled up to the bottom of overpasses, Ill see if I can post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 I saw a video yesterday from up there the snow was piled up to the bottom of overpasses, Ill see if I can post it. It would be cool to experience something like this once in my lifetime whether that be spending a winter there or in the Lake Effect belt. I'm too old to be shoveling and snowplowing every single day or every other day tho so I would need to have someone that would work for me to remove the snow lol. I wonder if they track sunny/dry weather the way we track snowstorms? I realize those are ski resorts but there are still common folk that live in the mountains. Seriously tho, I wonder if they follow the models praying the storms trend drier or 'out-to-sea' lol. Amazing stuff regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 10 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: It would be cool to experience something like this once in my lifetime whether that be spending a winter there or in the Lake Effect belt. I'm too old to be shoveling and snowplowing every single day or every other day tho so I would need to have someone that would work for me to remove the snow lol. I wonder if they track sunny/dry weather the way we track snowstorms? I realize those are ski resorts but there are still common folk that live in the mountains. Seriously tho, I wonder if they follow the models praying the storms trend drier or 'out-to-sea' lol. Amazing stuff regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Risk of game being postponed til Monday? For the KC metro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Hope everybody enjoyed the shorts and tiki torch weather- yeah that didn't work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 The promising pattern change for late January into February looks to have vanished. +PNA feature is almost non-existent and what trof we do have in the East is very flat and progressive with no N Atlantic blocking. I guess its a good look on the eps gefs and geps if you like warm/wet with some shots of cold/dry sprinkled in. Obviously it could change but the pattern since October is too predictable and just keeps repeating itself over and over and over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The promising pattern change for late January into February looks to have vanished. +PNA feature is almost non-existent and what trof we do have in the East is very flat and progressive with no N Atlantic blocking. I guess its a good look on the eps gefs and geps if you like warm/wet with some shots of cold/dry sprinkled in. Obviously it could change but the pattern since October is too predictable and just keeps repeating itself over and over and over. With a couple of model runs, time to give up...lol! Many said this will be a winter where further north locations will be the winners as far as snowfall is concerned, in that respect nothing has changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 1 hour ago, WEATHERBUFF said: With a couple of model runs, time to give up...lol! Many said this will be a winter where further north locations will be the winners as far as snowfall is concerned, in that respect nothing has changed. Not giving up.....will never give up as I realize fluke storms do happen. However, those who follow the weeklies and LR stuff have seen this repeated continuously since October. Now that the models are backing off on the LR pattern in this same lead time they have before, leads me to believe these pattern flips are some sort of unicorn we are chasing this year. There is supposed to be a SWE but that usually takes 2-3 weeks or more to reflect down at the surface and even with that change, those stratospheric guidance models are showing the PV migrating over to Siberia. We'll see I guess. I wont lose sleep over this supposed pattern change that will have "February rocking" tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not giving up.....will never give up as I realize fluke storms do happen. However, those who follow the weeklies and LR stuff have seen this repeated continuously since October. Now that the models are backing off on the LR pattern in this same lead time they have before, leads me to believe these pattern flips are some sort of unicorn we are chasing this year. There is supposed to be a SWE but that usually takes 2-3 weeks or more to reflect down at the surface and even with that change, those stratospheric guidance models are showing the PV migrating over to Siberia. We'll see I guess. I wont lose sleep over this supposed pattern change that will have "February rocking" tho. I always thought Feb and March are the best opportunities for snow especially for the mid atlantic this year. It is very hard these days to get many below average or even average months in regards to temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 January 15 - Didn't press the button to cancel winter. Not expecting a real good finish to winter but even 5" below normal snow past Jan 25th would be more than double the winter I have seen so far 4.7". It's taken a significant amount of bad luck to do this poorly through mid winter a large portion of NJ and NYC are near normal in snowfall right next door. The struggle post January thaw will be to see if we can pull out a sub par finish like 2013(25.5" imby) or equal the futility of 2012(10" imby). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 15, 2017 Author Share Posted January 15, 2017 Here in East Nantmeal we are still running 0.3" above normal for January snowfall to date (4.8" so far vs 4.5" MTD avg) - however Seasonal Snow is only at 5.6" and we should be at exactly 11.0" of snow so far in a normal season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not giving up.....will never give up as I realize fluke storms do happen. However, those who follow the weeklies and LR stuff have seen this repeated continuously since October. Now that the models are backing off on the LR pattern in this same lead time they have before, leads me to believe these pattern flips are some sort of unicorn we are chasing this year. There is supposed to be a SWE but that usually takes 2-3 weeks or more to reflect down at the surface and even with that change, those stratospheric guidance models are showing the PV migrating over to Siberia. We'll see I guess. I wont lose sleep over this supposed pattern change that will have "February rocking" tho. SWE? (stratospheric warming event) And hang in there awhile longer (we've done it before)...reading elsewhere that we're delayed a bit but not denied! Seems we can still get a very, very good Feb/March pattern going!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 16, 2017 Author Share Posted January 16, 2017 No surprise the American models are struggling with the long term - Euro and Canada still say pattern change coming - keep the faith!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 I've decided to NOT cancel winter and while I've taken the public tour of The Panic Room in the Mid-Atlantic forum a couple of times, I have not checked in. With guidance at odds in the LR, this leads me to believe we are in fact headed towards a significant pattern change. Whether or not it can produce will remain to be seen but I'm hopeful we finish on a high note this season. Heck, the Euro op from 0Z was trending towards a bombing coastal low with wet snow early next week so anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 NWS high temperatures forecast for the next week don't get out of the 40's, have to say I am a little disappointed had hoped for more warmth during the hiatus what kind of way is this to run a North America torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 You can have your 3" snow +5F January give me a +12 to get outside and soak in the warmth. December 2015 has grown on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 2 hours ago, RedSky said: You can have your 3" snow +5F January give me a +12 to get outside and soak in the warmth. December 2015 has grown on me. Blasphemy! We want snow, and we want it now! Or when the pattern flips in early Feb... in the mean time I'm drooling at ridiculous eastern Sierra videos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 4 hours ago, RedSky said: You can have your 3" snow +5F January give me a +12 to get outside and soak in the warmth. December 2015 has grown on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 17, 2017 Author Share Posted January 17, 2017 12z Euro has snow back into the area by next Friday the 27th....not sayin it's reality but.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 If it's not going to snow 4+ inches, it might as well be warm. December 2015 was the GOAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 MA sub forum going a little nuts around day 10 Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 37 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: MA sub forum going a little nuts around day 10 Euro... All that is left to cheer for in a dead ratter winter day 10 Lucy storm. Digital weenies rejoice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 My worst fear now is a two week cold pattern, another big hit south of us and that's all she wrote. Would be horrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 17 minutes ago, RedSky said: My worst fear now is a two week cold pattern, another big hit south of us and that's all she wrote. Would be horrid. I would actually take that at this point (because I think this winter is shot) BUT in return we only have 7 or less 90 degree days this summer. (and some T-storms) Then we'll start fresh next Fall/Winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 On the bright side it looks like my rosemary plant is going to survive, it is still green and vibrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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