LakeEffectKing Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Looking at the Canadian Radar composite, note the importance of concavity of the shorelines as to the genesis of intense bands (Saginaw Bay off Huron and Keweenaw Bay off Superior) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 14 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Looking at the Canadian Radar composite, note the importance of concavity of the shorelines as to the genesis of intense bands (Saginaw Bay off Huron and Keweenaw Bay off Superior) So is that why lakes Erie and Ontario are usually single-banded when winds are W to SW? Does the shape of the lake cause convergence of winds to form more intense, single band? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2016 Author Share Posted December 14, 2016 RGEM keeps the band over Metro until 3 AM, than the arctic front thumping, than the possible WWA/WSW snow Friday into Sat. Fun times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2016 Author Share Posted December 14, 2016 26 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Looking at the Canadian Radar composite, note the importance of concavity of the shorelines as to the genesis of intense bands (Saginaw Bay off Huron and Keweenaw Bay off Superior) That band off of Superior is just unreal. I've always wondered what places on the East side of Superior average per year. Probably 300-400"+. That band is producing 5+" per hour easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2016 Author Share Posted December 14, 2016 HRRR has foot and a half of snow just south of Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: HRRR has foot and a half of snow just south of Buffalo. That's assuming 10:1 ratios as well, which I'm sure this event will be quite a bit higher... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1029 AM EST Wed Dec 14 2016 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Current radar and satellite trends seem to be right on track with the forecast for heavy snow across Metro Buffalo and the satellite and surface observations indicate then Watertown and northern Jefferson county are getting hit hard by snow off Lake Ontario. Will continue to monitor and update the forecast as needed, but everything seems to be verifying well at this time. ...Major impacts to the Buffalo and Watertown evening commutes expected today as heavy lake effect snow produces near blizzard conditions... An arctic airmass will spill across the region today, associated with a lobe of the polar vortex seen on WV satellite imagery spinning into far northwest Ontario province. 850 mb temperatures will fall from around -14C this morning to about -21C by early Thursday morning. The steepening lapse rates aloft by this afternoon, combined with increasing synoptic moisture with an approaching shortwave this afternoon will allow lake effect snow to develop northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario, on a southwesterly 230 to 240 flow. This means the lake effect snow will intensify in place over the city of Buffalo and the Northtowns to near North Tonawanda this afternoon. Expect the snow to develop after 1pm, and becoming heavy (1 to 2 inches and hour or more) by 3 to 4pm. As the impinging shortwave nears, the wind will veer to 260 degrees by 7pm, quickly pushing the band through the Southtowns, where it will then settle across the western Southern Tier overnight on 270-280 degree flow behind the shortwave passage. Thus while we are expecting only a few hours of heavy snow across the Buffalo metro area, it will come at prime rush hour, with the worst between 4 and 7pm. Further worsening the conditions during the evening commute will be the gusty winds producing blowing and drifting snow, with near blizzard conditions. Total accumulations across the Buffalo metro area will range from 4 to 7 inches. Also expect the band will get just far enough north to impact far southern portions of Niagara County, and thus have included them in a Lake Effect Snow Advisory. Similarly Watertown area and traffic along the I-81 corridor, from Central Square to Watertown will experience worsening conditions late this afternoon and evening. The band of snow will develop near Watertown late in the afternoon and shift southward toward the Tug Hill this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Monster dendrites parachuting down in Lancaster. Radar still a bit spotty, but signs last few frames that a band might be trying to consolidate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 looks like the banding is consolidating near Buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 2 hours ago, southbuffalowx said: So is that why lakes Erie and Ontario are usually single-banded when winds are W to SW? Does the shape of the lake cause convergence of winds to form more intense, single band? Yes, absolutely....Synoptic flow from land, as it enters a bay and then to an open body of water, will converge instantly upon bay entrance....thus beginning the structure necessary to create inflow over the rest of the lake.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Already 2" per hour in south Buffalo by Tift st, picked up close to an inch since 12:40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Just wow if this band doesn't move till 7pm, someone is going to get very lucky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2016 Author Share Posted December 14, 2016 Whiteout here at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Whiteout here at work. Same conditions here in South Buffalo, its crazy to think that the band is just getting started can't wait to see how much more it's going to intensify lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2016 Author Share Posted December 14, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Total whiteout in Lackawanna and THUNDERSOW BABY!!!. At least 2-3" an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Ugh... stuck at work in OP until 5. Hopefully I can sneak back home while that band is still over downtown north. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Trying to time out how long to stay at UB North. Downstream radar seems to be aligning downtown and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Buckle up Buffalo! Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 ROC crew get ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2016 Author Share Posted December 14, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2016 Author Share Posted December 14, 2016 thundersnow was near cheektowaga. Didn't see it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 minute ago, ayuud11 said: ROC crew get ready! I'll let you know if anything happens. Past experience shows the convection always completely crashes and burns as soon as it leaves Genessee county. Not expecting more than an inch or two. Thinking of driving west this evening to get at least see some snow. Good luck B-lo, looking good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 In right conditions i have seen monroe county get 6 to 12 from erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: thundersnow was near cheektowaga. Didn't see it here. Ha, I thought so! I was out walking in the neighborhood about 30 minutes ago, no snow but very dark to the south. Heard a very loud rumble, sounded like thunder, but wasn't positive. SN+ here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Current conditions at Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport (KBUF) Lat: 42.94°NLon: 78.74°WElev: 709ft. Thunderstorm Snow Blowing Snow 25°F -4°C Humidity 69% Wind Speed SW 15 G 28 mph Barometer 29.92 in (1014.5 mb) Dewpoint 16°F (-9°C) Visibility 0.50 mi Wind Chill 13°F (-11°C) Last update 14 Dec 1:54 pm EST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 minute ago, tim123 said: In right conditions i have seen monroe county get 6 to 12 from erie. I would love to know the date of these events. Been watching these for nearly 30 years and have to disagree. Perhaps hybrid events with strong arctic fronts and lots of synoptic moisture but never a pure bred lake effect event such as this one. The biggest buffalo events simply do not make it this far. Time and time again the NWS puts us under warnings/advisories for these events and absolutely nothing happens. They really need to make LES watches and warnings with the polygons that are used for Thunderstorms. I mean throwing the whole county under an advisory for this event is plain foolish. I do agree that under perfect circumstances we could maybe squeak out 2-4 in the metro with 6-8 in the far SW corner of the county. That said, this event is missing a lot of ingredients to make that happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 it looks like 2 separate bands consolidating right over the city and to the South. IDK, To me it doesn't look too promising for the North towns and the CIty after this initial burst but I will probably be wrong. Just South of KBUF is where to be at for this event I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Thats with a artic front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Theres also westerly winds fighting this band from totally crushing KBUF! I hope you all get crushed but with LE it just doesn't happen to often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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