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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Winter!

BuffaloWeather

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SouthBuffaloSteve

SouthBuffaloSteve

Posted
Posted

Time to get our hopes up!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
952 PM EST MON DEC 12 2016

NYZ010-011-131100-
/O.EXB.KBUF.LE.A.0012.161214T1800Z-161215T0600Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA
952 PM EST MON DEC 12 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 9 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST
PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH MAY PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW ON ROADS AND VERY POOR VISIBILITY. THIS MAY RESULT IN VERY
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...INCLUDING THE WEDNESDAY EVENING
COMMUTE.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT NARROW BANDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH
RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS THAT CAN HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TRAVEL.


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SouthBuffaloSteve

SouthBuffaloSteve

Posted
Posted
Is he a local meteorologist. I do see the erie band making a pass through rochester could be a 2 to 4 from it.more if slower


He was the weather guy on Buffalo TV for years. He retired and just works part time now. He's very conservative with his wording so I was surprised seeing that.


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SouthBuffaloSteve

SouthBuffaloSteve

Posted
Posted

I'm not so concerned on total snowfall but the timing of this could have a major public impact. If NAM timing verifies this band will blow up right over the metro at the height of the evening commute. Even if it doesn't stall and we only get 4-6 the winds gusting to 40 will bring traffic to a stand still.


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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Quite surprised by the LES snow watch. I just don't see it. No model is spitting out enough QPF for Metro to warrant a warning. We will have a better idea tomorrow. The GGEM and RGEM look the best out of all models. But as already mentioned the bands should be strong enough to put down snow very quickly so will only take a few hours.

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ayuud11

ayuud11

Posted
Posted

Updated AFD..

 

Quote 

This period will feature the coldest weather thus far in the young
winter season with the cold air supporting yet another bout of
significant lake snows east of both lakes. The lake snow should be
the most impactful east of Lake Ontario where there will be the
potential for multiple feet of accumulation. Lake effect snow
watches have been issued to cover this scenario for the Eastern Lake
Ontario region. After looking over the 18Z guidance and a brief
look at the 00Z NAM, lake effect snow watches have also been
issued east of Lake Erie. This includes the Buffalo Metro area for
the very start of the event Wednesday afternoon and evening.

As we open this period Tuesday evening...a cold front will be
pushing across the Finger Lakes Region. While the front will
generate some snow showers..accumulations will generally be
insignificant. In the wake of the front...H85 temps dropping off
into the minus teens c will prompt enough lake instability for some
lake snows east of both lakes. There is not expected to be very much
synoptic moisture...and with a cap under 8k ft...the response should
be minimal. Am expecting accumulations of around 2 inches near the
Chautauqua Ridge and up to 4 inches near and just north of the Tug
Hill by daybreak.

On Wednesday...a deep cyclonic flow will be found over all of the
Great Lakes as the much talked about polar vortex will push across
the northern reaches of Ontario. While the core of the associated
true arctic air will remain well to our north...H85 temps of -16c
will accompany a 240-250 flow over our region. That will direct
accumulating snow bands into the heart of the BUF and ART metro
areas. The lake snows should intensify during the course of the
afternoon...as the limiting cap is forecast to rise to 10-15k
ft...and by late in the day there will an increase in synoptic
moisture.

Latest mesoscale model guidance suggests the lake effect snow may
become heavy during the first part of this event as lake induced
instability rapidly rises, and convergence increases with the
approach of a synoptic scale trough. Heavy lake effect snow off
Lake Erie may impact the Buffalo Metro area during the Wednesday
evening commute before moving quickly south overnight as boundary
layer flow veers westerly. Given the short duration of the event,
it will likely end up being a borderline high end advisory low end
warning for Buffalo Metro as far as snow amounts go. That said
however, the timing and strong winds will likely produce
significant impact. Off Lake Ontario expect a similar scenario
with lake snows developing near Watertown during the late
afternoon and early evening before moving to the Tug Hill.

Otherwise...it will be brisk and cold with afternoon temperatures
topping out in the mid 20s. Gusty winds will interact with these
mercury to produce apparent temps in the single digits and teens.

As the anomalously deep mid level arctic gyre passes to our north
Wednesday night and Thursday...H85 temps will tumble to at least
-20c. This will establish extreme instability (lapse rates >8 deg
c/km through H6...or LICAPEs of 1500-2000 j/kg) over Lakes Erie and
Ontario while the cap will climb to nearly 20k ft. As is nearly
always the case for significant lake snows...it is the height of
this cap within a low sheared environment that is the most
important. Given an influx of synoptic moisture and the likelihood of
an upstream connection to Lakes Superior and Huron...the lake snows
in the vcnty of the Tug Hill will likely be quite significant with
snowfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour. These rates could be even
higher due to increased low level convergence just ahead of an
arctic cold front that will settle over that area late Thursday
afternoon. Snowfall amounts of more than two feet will be possible
for the Tug Hill area from later Wednesday into Thursday
evening...thus a lake effect snow watch is in effect for this area.

Besides the noteworthy lake effect...it will be cold Wednesday night
and Thursday. The mercury will settle into the single digits and
lower teens late Wednesday night...then only recover a few degrees
on Thursday in advance of an arctic front. Speaking of which...

Guidance has been fairly consistent with depicting the passage of an
arctic cold front over the forecast area late Thursday and Thursday
evening. As is almost always the case...there will be a burst of
moderate to heavy snow with the arctic fropa. Have cat pops in place
to cover this passage...aiming notably higher than the diluted pops
of the ensembles. For what its worth...the SREF seems to be the most
realistic looking of these.

In the wake of the arctic front...temperatures late Thursday night
will plunge below zero across a large portion of our area...
including sites east of Lake Ontario and across the southern tier.
Winds averaging 10-15 mph will combine with these mercury readings
to produce dangerously low wind chills of 15 to 20 below. Wind chill
headlines may be necessary.

Friday will be another very cold day as the heart of an arctic high
will pass just to our south. Temperatures will be similar to those
of the previous day (Thurs)...although with weaker winds in place...
wind chill values will not be as threatening. The bulk of the region
will be pcpn free...however there will be some weak nuisance lake
snow showers east of both lakes.

&&

 

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Well this would be funny....about 24 hours ahead of schedule.  

I'm thinking this would be that burst that was over Michigan this morning and is now over Ontatio headed our way, not really lake effect maybe lake enhancemed but not lake effect. I believe it's assosicated with the first of two cold fronts coming through this week, the other one coming tomorrow night which is what the lake snow watch is for. Thinking Buffalo sees a couple inches this afternoon and 3-6" tomorrow. 

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

12WRF scores a direct hit for tomorrow and keeps that band right over the metro for hours.
2f0dc34a8726d9763adb7b615dc3ccf5.gif


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You do realize that QPF bullseye is only 0.23"? That's about 2.5" of snow, 3" if your lucky. I know thats for a 3hr period but it's still not that impressive...

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SouthBuffaloSteve

SouthBuffaloSteve

Posted
Posted


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1158 AM EST TUE DEC 13 2016

NYZ010-011-140100-
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0012.161214T1800Z-161215T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0010.161214T1800Z-161215T0600Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA
1158 AM EST TUE DEC 13 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM
EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND 1 TO 3 INCHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES IN
THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...NEAR ZERO AT TIMES IN LOCALIZED BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE MID 20S WEDNESDAY. LOWS AROUND 10
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED BUT POTENTIALLY
HIGH IMPACT EVENT CENTERED AROUND THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
COMMUTE. ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED WITH STRONG WINDS
PRODUCING NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES.


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southbuffalowx

southbuffalowx

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

You do realize that QPF bullseye is only 0.23"? That's about 2.5" of snow, 3" if your lucky. I know thats for a 3hr period but it's still not that impressive...

But do weather models, even mesoscale ones ever properly show snowfall rates? I'm sure it will be more than 1in/hr tomorrow, especially between 4-7ish. I feel like 3-7 is definitely a bit low of a forecast.

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Not a bad band about to come off erie. Lake effect parameters are not the greatest but can probably get 2-4"out of that through tonight, maybe even a tad more if it becomes one strong band.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/animations/codnexlab.NEXRAD.BUF.N0Q.20161213.1728.024ani.gif

Under the heaviest rates according to radar right now in Amherst and its really not impressive. If calling it barely moderate snow, if this is the band that the models are showing we'll be lucky to get 1/2" today..

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southbuffalowx

southbuffalowx

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Under the heaviest rates according to radar right now in Amherst and its really not impressive. If calling it barely moderate snow, if this is the band that the models are showing we'll be lucky to get 1/2" today..

 

I'm also in Amherst right now, and it seems to be coming down quite hard. Visibility is probably a quarter mile or less, and the flakes are large dendrites, so I'd imagine it's 1-2 in/hr, from my very rough estimate.

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said:

You do realize that QPF bullseye is only 0.23"? That's about 2.5" of snow, 3" if your lucky. I know thats for a 3hr period but it's still not that impressive...

Depending on the dendrites, .23" could be 8"....I've seen ratios as high as 50:1....but I could also see through 6" of snow on my car!! lol!

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, southbuffalowx said:

I'm also in Amherst right now, and it seems to be coming down quite hard. Visibility is probably a quarter mile or less, and the flakes are large dendrites, so I'd imagine it's 1-2 in/hr, from my very rough estimate.

Hmm, weird. Snow has let up to very light here and theres about 1/4". I don't think visibility ever dropped below 1/2 mile here to be honest.

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SouthBuffaloSteve

SouthBuffaloSteve

Posted
Posted
Under the heaviest rates according to radar right now in Amherst and its really not impressive. If calling it barely moderate snow, if this is the band that the models are showing we'll be lucky to get 1/2" today..



I think the bigger feature to watch today will be a possible burst moving through the metro between 4 and 5. HRRR has been consistent with a pretty intense band all morning. Moves it through the metro pretty fast but then shows it hugging the shore into Hamburg and OP for a few hours this evening. Might not be a big snow maker but timing looks like it could be impactful.

8e75483ff4c6a94c1ac2b45bcee117bc.png


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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

 


I think the bigger feature to watch today will be a possible burst moving through the metro between 4 and 5. HRRR has been consistent with a pretty intense band all morning. Moves it through the metro pretty fast but then shows it hugging the shore into Hamburg and OP for a few hours this evening. Might not be a big snow maker but timing looks like it could be impactful.

8e75483ff4c6a94c1ac2b45bcee117bc.png


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I think that's the burst moving through the metro now lol. 

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