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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Winter!

BuffaloWeather

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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That forecast discussion was pretty awesome, possibly some thundersnow? 

As we open this period...an arctic cold front will charge south
across the Lower Great Lakes. The operational GFS and ECMWF...along
with the bulk of their ensemble members...have been fairly
consistent with depicting the fropa to take place between 21z
Thursday afternoon and 03z Thursday night. As is the case with the
vast majority (if not all) of arctic fropa`s...a band of moderate to
heavy snow will push south across our region. BUFKIT lapse rates
displays depict lapse rates of 8-9 deg c/km through 500 mb with
neatr passage of this arctic front. Wow! Given this instability and
strong forcing associated with the front...would not be surprised
that there could be some thunder and lightning. Have raised pops to
categorical for this passage. Simply cannot rely on an ensemble
approach for pops given the climatology of arctic fropas in this
region...so will aim notably higher than Superblend.
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ayuud11

ayuud11

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Posted
51 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That forecast discussion was pretty awesome, possibly some thundersnow? 


As we open this period...an arctic cold front will charge south
across the Lower Great Lakes. The operational GFS and ECMWF...along
with the bulk of their ensemble members...have been fairly
consistent with depicting the fropa to take place between 21z
Thursday afternoon and 03z Thursday night. As is the case with the
vast majority (if not all) of arctic fropa`s...a band of moderate to
heavy snow will push south across our region. BUFKIT lapse rates
displays depict lapse rates of 8-9 deg c/km through 500 mb with
neatr passage of this arctic front. Wow! Given this instability and
strong forcing associated with the front...would not be surprised
that there could be some thunder and lightning. Have raised pops to
categorical for this passage. Simply cannot rely on an ensemble
approach for pops given the climatology of arctic fropas in this
region...so will aim notably higher than Superblend.

Remember the one we had earlier this year that dropped 5" in an hour in some spots?

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BGM Blizzard

BGM Blizzard

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Between 5.5-6.0 here at KBGM. Looking elsewhere around the State, it seems the forecasts of 3-7" generally verified, with few spots coming in with less around Genesee Valley and Hudson Valley, which was predicted by at least some of the models. A couple 7-8" amounts in the eastern catskills and southern/southeastern Dacks, and even a couple 10-12" reports in the western southern tier, though they show up as 24 hour totals so not entirely sure if those are 100% synoptic or if they have some early morning LES factored in from Sunday AM. Overall a nice storm that was pretty well modeled. 

 

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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34 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Between 5.5-6.0 here at KBGM. Looking elsewhere around the State, it seems the forecasts of 3-7" generally verified, with few spots coming in with less around Genesee Valley and Hudson Valley, which was predicted by at least some of the models. A couple 7-8" amounts in the eastern catskills and southern/southeastern Dacks, and even a couple 10-12" reports in the western southern tier, though they show up as 24 hour totals so not entirely sure if those are 100% synoptic or if they have some early morning LES factored in from Sunday AM. Overall a nice storm that was pretty well modeled. 

 

Yeah BGM that was a really good map. Looks good for same areas from last LES event. 

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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..LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON...LEWIS AND OSWEGO.

* TIMING...FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
  NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...MORE THAN TWO FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...UNDER A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE MID 20S WEDNESDAY. LOWS 10 TO 15
  WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE TEENS THURSDAY. LOWS ZERO TO 5
  ABOVE THURSDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY
  LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ON AREA ROADWAYS.
  VISIBILITY WILL BE EXTREMELY POOR AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
  HAZARDOUS TO DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

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56 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 

..LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON...LEWIS AND OSWEGO.

* TIMING...FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
  NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...MORE THAN TWO FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST
  PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...UNDER A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE MID 20S WEDNESDAY. LOWS 10 TO 15
  WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE TEENS THURSDAY. LOWS ZERO TO 5
  ABOVE THURSDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY
  LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ON AREA ROADWAYS.
  VISIBILITY WILL BE EXTREMELY POOR AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
  HAZARDOUS TO DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

Yep and it'll all be gone before Xmas because a monstrous warm up is on the way unless some drastic changes occur in the near future.

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ayuud11

ayuud11

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7 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Nothing better than a lake effect RAIN band to swing through and wipe out everything you picked up from the overnight synoptic. I don't even have any snow left just piles of slush. This winter bites!
87da2a9898c54e1be0b5e9a9853e73de.gif


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For some reason idk why but that area from S.Buffalo all the way down to W.Seneca border always end up with the lowest amounts whenever we have a synoptic storm lol

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

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13 minutes ago, ayuud11 said:

For some reason idk why but that area from S.Buffalo all the way down to W.Seneca border always end up with the lowest amounts whenever we have a synoptic storm lol

That's because it's trying to even itself out from all the times they were in the Bullseye in the big lake effect events (Dec 2010, Nov 2014). Lol 

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WNash

WNash

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49 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

That's because it's trying to even itself out from all the times they were in the Bullseye in the big lake effect events (Dec 2010, Nov 2014). Lol 

Yeah, what kind of difference does "lowest amounts" really come to? A few inches? That's a rounding error on top of the LES storms that have hit them.

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Buffalo Bumble

Buffalo Bumble

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34 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

interesting enough, the 12Z GFS says what warm-up but its 1 run so lets see a follow up with tonight's 00Z.

Hope so.  One of the earlier runs showed a furnace around Christmas Eve/Day.  Gave me flashbacks to the last couple Christmas torches, one of which I seem to recall had a thunderstorm roll through after getting into the 60's...

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

EPS weeklies don't look good for weeks 3 and 4. Expect a pretty big warm up. 

They've been literally all over the place as far as weeklies go.  It didn't even pick up the shot coming this week till way late.  I wouldn't take any one model at face value in the long term but that's just me. Definitely not expecting no blowtorch that's for sure.  Especially considering all the snow that will supposedly be laid down by then, lol. {sarcasm}.

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ayuud11

ayuud11

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2 hours ago, WesterlyWx said:

First map from KBUF for this upcoming event. I assume that this is including the arctic front burst that's go going come through as well. 

http://www.weather.gov/buf/stormtotalsnow

 

I though Wednesday afternoon setup looked really good for the immediate city area yet the AFD states that only 2 inches might fall there? ;p;

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

They've been literally all over the place as far as weeklies go.  It didn't even pick up the shot coming this week till way late.  I wouldn't take any one model at face value in the long term but that's just me. Definitely not expecting no blowtorch that's for sure.  Especially considering all the snow that will supposedly be laid down by then, lol. {sarcasm}.

Haha! You're right. Christmas week almost always seems to have a torch pattern for some reason. The PV strengthening and the Alaskan death vortex showing up concerns me for a good winter, but like you said they've been horrid in the long range.

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SouthBuffaloSteve

SouthBuffaloSteve

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I though Wednesday afternoon setup looked really good for the immediate city area yet the AFD states that only 2 inches might fall there? ;p;


Maybe just keeping it conservative after the last event failed twice to deliver in the metro at the start and end. All we can do is hope for an overachiever surprise.
44a6471e052ba6bfb6875f6f800a5e58.png


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Buffalo Bumble

Buffalo Bumble

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55 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Haha! You're right. Christmas week almost always seems to have a torch pattern for some reason. The PV strengthening and the Alaskan death vortex showing up concerns me for a good winter, but like you said they've been horrid in the long range.

Yeah, walking a tightrope it seems with some of the extended model runs lately between staying in a pretty good pattern or torching.  Lots of uncertainty too in Cohen's blog update today: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation.  IMO, he does a great job explaining where all of the players are on the field (AO, NAO, sea ice, etc.), but the long term predictions just seem to be regurgitation of GEFS runs.  He needs a strong -AO to hit by mid-winter for his snow cover theory to hold up.    

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BGM Blizzard

BGM Blizzard

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8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah BGM that was a really good map. Looks good for same areas from last LES event. 

Thanks! I'm going to try and put 1 together for each of the decent synoptic events that come along. Would love to see others give it a shot. I think it would add to the fun!

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