SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Just can't catch a break... With global models coming into better agreement with the position and track of the upper-level low, local research and pattern recognition suggests a significant lake effect event for the Chautauqua Ridge (again south of metro Buffalo), and also the southern Tug Hill region (again south of Watertown). This is not say that areas outside of these higher impact areas won`t receive lake effect snow at some point during the event, however the greatest potential for feet of snow lies in these areas directly east to east-southeast of the lakes. Looking a bit closer at the details for Wednesday and Thursday, cold advection will be underway across the lower Great Lakes Wednesday morning in southwesterly flow. 850 mb temperatures will already by plenty cold enough (-15C) to support lake effect snow, however the big caveat is that this synoptic moisture appears to be nearly completely missing. Thus expect an area of low lake cloudiness lined on the lake convergence on the southwesterly flow across the Buffalo metro area. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2016 Author Share Posted December 12, 2016 My and Devin went chasing last night from Village of Hamburg through Springville to North Collins and back to Cassadaga. Springville had the most snow by far with 3 feet+, Cassadaga had over 2'. Here is a few pics and videos of the snow depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2016 Author Share Posted December 12, 2016 15 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Just can't catch a break... With global models coming into better agreement with the position and track of the upper-level low, local research and pattern recognition suggests a significant lake effect event for the Chautauqua Ridge (again south of metro Buffalo), and also the southern Tug Hill region (again south of Watertown). This is not say that areas outside of these higher impact areas won`t receive lake effect snow at some point during the event, however the greatest potential for feet of snow lies in these areas directly east to east-southeast of the lakes. Looking a bit closer at the details for Wednesday and Thursday, cold advection will be underway across the lower Great Lakes Wednesday morning in southwesterly flow. 850 mb temperatures will already by plenty cold enough (-15C) to support lake effect snow, however the big caveat is that this synoptic moisture appears to be nearly completely missing. Thus expect an area of low lake cloudiness lined on the lake convergence on the southwesterly flow across the Buffalo metro area. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yeah, it may start off further north but Thurs night into Saturday almost a lock for W/NW winds. It's very difficult to get SW winds when the a piece of the PV drops south, I mean its coming from the arctic, NW winds are usually from its origination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 I do think buffalo will get a decent hit when front comes through short live few hours but high impact. Sw flow ahead of front. This will go all the way to rochester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Face planting some snow banks! Love it! Ha! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2016 Author Share Posted December 12, 2016 4 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Face planting some snow banks! Love it! Ha! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Springville had a lot more snow than I thought. They were the jackpot for this event. I thought it would be somewhere on Chautuaqua ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Up to 4.5" for the day. Heaviest snow of the night falling now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2016 Author Share Posted December 12, 2016 Just now, Buffalo Bumble said: Up to 4.5" for the day. Heaviest snow of the night falling now. Should be snowing for most of the overnight too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Just under 2" at the moment. Snowing pretty nicely for the last hour or so. BUF finally bumped us up to 4-6" as well. The HRRR has suggested for multiple runs that a Fair Haven - Camden - Boonville line will pick up about 6-10". Wouldn't surprise me if Fulton ends up around 7-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Yea latest hrrr has between 0.6"-0.8" of precipitation for Oswego county, currently moderate snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Heaviest snow of the storm so far in the last 90 minutes as the coastal low ramps up. A little over 2 inches so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Radar looking nice!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 21 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yea latest hrrr has between 0.6"-0.8" of precipitation for Oswego county, currently moderate snow.. It's been remarkably consistent today. May end with a sprinkle or two tomorrow morning but overall a good storm. 3.2" and counting in Oswego now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Just woke up and looked out the window and I'm pretty impressed. From eyeballing it it looks close to 6". Not a measurement though. Still coming down very steadily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Coming down very heavily and it looks like a solid stretch of precipall the way to Cleveland right in to CNY. Very nice moisture feed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 So much for advisories, lol! Mesoscale Discussion 1879 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2016 Areas affected...Portions of Upstate New York Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 120523Z - 120930Z SUMMARY...A band of moderate to occasionally heavy snow will organize across portions of Upstate New York overnight, with local snowfall rates upwards of one inch per hour. DISCUSSION...As a southwesterly low-level jet strengthens over central/eastern New York tonight, increasing isentropic ascent will spread moderate snowfall eastward across the state. Guidance is relatively consistent in suggesting an enhanced band of heavier snow (within the broader shield of snowfall) organizing near the Mohawk Valley during the early morning hours. Surface observations illustrate a subtle trough within this region, perhaps indicative of a corridor of enhanced warm-air advection and related ascent, which would support higher snowfall rates (upwards of one inch per hour). Towards 07-09Z, this band of moderate to locally heavy snowfall will expand eastward towards the Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 They aren't lying. Its puking snow right now in Liverpool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Decent snowfall rates at Kroc. Closing in on 4". Prob 1/2"/hr now. Flakes are bigger now. I wonder if we are getting some enhancement from the lake due to secondary low over PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 The only caveat with this event, otherwise it would overperform easily, is that the snow growth is atrocious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 not getting enhancement with a mean SE wind but perhaps Toronto is cashing in a bit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Already eclipsed our predicted amount from KBGM so BUST!!! Interesting as they do much much better with LES events than Synoptic events. We all bust now and then. Part of the business of predicting weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Nothing better than a lake effect RAIN band to swing through and wipe out everything you picked up from the overnight synoptic. I don't even have any snow left just piles of slush. This winter bites!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 48 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Nothing better than a lake effect RAIN band to swing through and wipe out everything you picked up from the overnight synoptic. I don't even have any snow left just piles of slush. This winter bites! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Man that sucks! Ended up with a surprising 6.3" in Amherst. Noticed a big difference between Amherst and my work in Hamburg. Hamburg looks to have about half of what we got in Amherst. Noticed a large drop off in snow on the thruway just past the Galleria. We got a little rain in Amherst but there was still over 5" on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 I just measured 5.5 inches here. Since the consensus forecast was 3-6 I'm happy being close to the upper end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Eyeballing a good 1/2' or so, snow has ended, we managed to stay away from any rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Measured 6" here in Phoenix. Thursday looks down right rough for areas north of the thruway. Feel like 81 gets shut down on this one. Not sure what's left of the band as it comes south or how far south it can set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 NWS seems pretty confident for this far out... Wednesday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 15. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Thursday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 19. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Thursday Night Snow before midnight, then a chance of snow showers after midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 5. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 51 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Man that sucks! Ended up with a surprising 6.3" in Amherst. Noticed a big difference between Amherst and my work in Hamburg. Hamburg looks to have about half of what we got in Amherst. Noticed a large drop off in snow on the thruway just past the Galleria. We got a little rain in Amherst but there was still over 5" on the ground. I live close to Galleria now and i measured 5.3" at 5am when i left for work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 6" on the dot in Bayberry....Nice snowball making!! Yeah, later this week looks super for LES in Oswego Co.....let's see if the winds can go quasi-stationary.... Erie....same 'ol....southtowns to ski country....at least for the "bullseye" ....everyone should get "something". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 The arctic frontal passage does seem to be quite interesting. May drop a quick 2-3" as it swings through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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