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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Winter!


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4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

This pattern that's emerging the next week is absolutely disgusting. Bring back the warmth so at least we can get some moisture in here. Cold with no snow, lovely. Sounds like both BUF and BGM changed their tune on where the LE will be and that's mainly the Tug and North of there towards the North Country. The Adirondacks will do better with LES than we will here in the Cuse. KBUF, it's definitely ur turn. No doubt in my mind this time guys!

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Nope, bulk of the snow will stay from the Southtowns south. KBUF may pick up an inch or two over the next week. 

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The Winters of yesteryear are over. The days when snow would stick around for the Winter are ova. The last year I saw snow stick around was 2013-2014, which was quite anomalous, before that, 2002-2003. Last good synoptic event was.......... Yeah, I don't remember.

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1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said:

Nope, bulk of the snow will stay from the Southtowns south. KBUF may pick up an inch or two over the next week. 

I disagree, take a look at the 12z GFS they are couple of periods there where the winds back enough to send a band towards the city only caveat might be lack of moisture but if we can overcome that then we should be happy all i can say lol..

 

29 minutes ago, southbuffalowx said:

Looks like kbuf is going to bust low, in my opinion. No way only 8-12 falls off Erie, for a 2-3 day event. And the Tug Hill is probably going to get smashed, possibly 3'+, especially with the upstream connections that might occur.

I Agree!!

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1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

The Winters of yesteryear are over. The days when snow would stick around for the Winter are ova. The last year I saw snow stick around was 2013-2014, which was quite anomalous, before that, 2002-2003. Last good synoptic event was.......... Yeah, I don't remember.

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Lack of synoptic storms is certainly concerning, I can't even remember the last time we had some legit warning snowfall from a synoptic storm without the lakes helping out lol..

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From the BUF AFD - doesn't look like a long-term cold outbreak after all:

At the moment, it appears that we may see a break in the cold by
Tuesday, as the general consensus among global models is for a deep
upper low to develop over the Gulf of Alaska by Sunday, forcing
ridging downstream across the Western U.S. that eventually works its
way eastward during the early part of next week, helping to break
down the longwave trough over the East and resulting in a more zonal
flow aloft, with relatively mild Pacific air flowing eastward across
the northern half of the country.
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3 minutes ago, vortmax said:

From the BUF AFD - doesn't look like a long-term cold outbreak after all:


At the moment, it appears that we may see a break in the cold by
Tuesday, as the general consensus among global models is for a deep
upper low to develop over the Gulf of Alaska by Sunday, forcing
ridging downstream across the Western U.S. that eventually works its
way eastward during the early part of next week, helping to break
down the longwave trough over the East and resulting in a more zonal
flow aloft, with relatively mild Pacific air flowing eastward across
the northern half of the country.

Looks really warm next Weds.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017010312/ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_9.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017010312/gfs-ens_T850a_us_33.png

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Yea, Not much is making sense..

 

Thursday
Occasional snow before noon, then a chance of snow showers after noon. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 26. West wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
 
I just don't see it lol With that being said the euro does drop the band south over the weekend, especially sat/sat night..
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Yup, i agree buffalo, just hoping to get some leftovers here lol

 

Medium-range guidance indicates that the mid-winter cold should be
with us at least through the weekend, with another potent upper
level trough diving out of the Arctic and across the Great Lakes by
Saturday. This will also continue to result in lake-effect snows
downwind of the lakes through the weekend, though we may see a
little more movement in the bands, particularly as flow veers more
northwesterly Sunday in response to strong ridging upstream.

 

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I don't get the NWS ending the warning at 5:00 PM Friday. Lake Ontario really won't shut down until Saturday morning (if at all) before a last hurrah on Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. you Oswego County folks might pick up a sympathy inch or two before things shut off. There's going to be a really impressive gradient between Pulaski and Mannsville over the next few days. I would guess Pulaski sees less than a half a foot while just across the Oswego/Jefferson border they see a foot or two. 

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If this band is able to stall out over the Tug for an extended period of time, they could easily get 5' through Friday. 3km NAM barely budges the band through it's run and has 64" over the Tug near Barnes Corners. Going to be an incredibly sharp gradient on both sides of this band. 15 miles north of Watertown probably sees nothing, and 3 miles south of Pulaski sees maybe an inch, while in between snows for 3 days straight. 

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