lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: This pattern that's emerging the next week is absolutely disgusting. Bring back the warmth so at least we can get some moisture in here. Cold with no snow, lovely. Sounds like both BUF and BGM changed their tune on where the LE will be and that's mainly the Tug and North of there towards the North Country. The Adirondacks will do better with LES than we will here in the Cuse. KBUF, it's definitely ur turn. No doubt in my mind this time guys! Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Nope, bulk of the snow will stay from the Southtowns south. KBUF may pick up an inch or two over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Nope, bulk of the snow will stay from the Southtowns south. KBUF may pick up an inch or two over the next week. I suppose we'll see then won't we?Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 This Winter can't end soon enough! Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 The Winters of yesteryear are over. The days when snow would stick around for the Winter are ova. The last year I saw snow stick around was 2013-2014, which was quite anomalous, before that, 2002-2003. Last good synoptic event was.......... Yeah, I don't remember. Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Looks like kbuf is going to bust low, in my opinion. No way only 8-12 falls off Erie, for a 2-3 day event. And the Tug Hill is probably going to get smashed, possibly 3'+, especially with the upstream connections that might occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said: Nope, bulk of the snow will stay from the Southtowns south. KBUF may pick up an inch or two over the next week. I disagree, take a look at the 12z GFS they are couple of periods there where the winds back enough to send a band towards the city only caveat might be lack of moisture but if we can overcome that then we should be happy all i can say lol.. 29 minutes ago, southbuffalowx said: Looks like kbuf is going to bust low, in my opinion. No way only 8-12 falls off Erie, for a 2-3 day event. And the Tug Hill is probably going to get smashed, possibly 3'+, especially with the upstream connections that might occur. I Agree!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I gotta say, when it rains it pours but when it snows it snizzles!Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 KBUF sees snow several times during the next week!Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: The Winters of yesteryear are over. The days when snow would stick around for the Winter are ova. The last year I saw snow stick around was 2013-2014, which was quite anomalous, before that, 2002-2003. Last good synoptic event was.......... Yeah, I don't remember. Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Lack of synoptic storms is certainly concerning, I can't even remember the last time we had some legit warning snowfall from a synoptic storm without the lakes helping out lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: This Winter can't end soon enough! Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk KSYR will see plenty of snowfall over the next week...via Tug Hill webcams...;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 So true it hurts,lol!Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I'm down for a Chase, I don't know about you but I don't have any four wheel drive vehicle so it's just not going to happenSent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 From the BUF AFD - doesn't look like a long-term cold outbreak after all: At the moment, it appears that we may see a break in the cold by Tuesday, as the general consensus among global models is for a deep upper low to develop over the Gulf of Alaska by Sunday, forcing ridging downstream across the Western U.S. that eventually works its way eastward during the early part of next week, helping to break down the longwave trough over the East and resulting in a more zonal flow aloft, with relatively mild Pacific air flowing eastward across the northern half of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, vortmax said: From the BUF AFD - doesn't look like a long-term cold outbreak after all: At the moment, it appears that we may see a break in the cold by Tuesday, as the general consensus among global models is for a deep upper low to develop over the Gulf of Alaska by Sunday, forcing ridging downstream across the Western U.S. that eventually works its way eastward during the early part of next week, helping to break down the longwave trough over the East and resulting in a more zonal flow aloft, with relatively mild Pacific air flowing eastward across the northern half of the country. Looks really warm next Weds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 I was able to go skiing 2 weeks ago with some of the best conditions I've had in awhile. 2 feet of powder in the trees was awesome to ride in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 EPO trending positive almost always yields a SE ridge and warmer than average temps ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4indices.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 The LES Warning for Southern Erie only has 2-4 inches falling Wednesday night and then again Thursday. There's no way that little falls, especially since the bands looks like it'll be fairly stationary, with a mean 255-260 flow. Hopefully, they'll bump up the totals as it gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Final stats for December in the city of Fulton.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Yea, Not much is making sense.. Thursday Occasional snow before noon, then a chance of snow showers after noon. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 26. West wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. I just don't see it lol With that being said the euro does drop the band south over the weekend, especially sat/sat night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 Little Valley and Perrysburg are over 100" on the year, Ellicottville is at 93". Great seasons for them so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 I'll go with Springville jackpot with this one 2 feet, Redfield 4 feet by early next week. Don't think the band makes it to Buffalo and don't think the band makes it to Syracuse, should hit Fulton for a time. Tug/Southern Tier event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Yup, i agree buffalo, just hoping to get some leftovers here lol Medium-range guidance indicates that the mid-winter cold should be with us at least through the weekend, with another potent upper level trough diving out of the Arctic and across the Great Lakes by Saturday. This will also continue to result in lake-effect snows downwind of the lakes through the weekend, though we may see a little more movement in the bands, particularly as flow veers more northwesterly Sunday in response to strong ridging upstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I don't get the NWS ending the warning at 5:00 PM Friday. Lake Ontario really won't shut down until Saturday morning (if at all) before a last hurrah on Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. you Oswego County folks might pick up a sympathy inch or two before things shut off. There's going to be a really impressive gradient between Pulaski and Mannsville over the next few days. I would guess Pulaski sees less than a half a foot while just across the Oswego/Jefferson border they see a foot or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I honestly don't think we even see that by friday night but i guess we'll see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Now that's more like it! I could definitely see the Boston Hills being the winner off Erie with up to 3' perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 We best enjoy whatever we get in the next 7 days because it looks like the January thaw comes with a vengeance later next week. And if the ensembles are to be believed it's not going to leave any time soon after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Looks like a big hit for the tug! BTV WRF puts down over 4 inches of liquid by midday Friday! Looks like BUF metro will only get a brush or two but should be fun to track as the bullseye has trended north throughout the day. The closer southtowns could get in some good action with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Why does BUF NWS issue conflicting maps on their website and Facebook page? Not huge difference but look at KART. That's a 10" difference... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 If this band is able to stall out over the Tug for an extended period of time, they could easily get 5' through Friday. 3km NAM barely budges the band through it's run and has 64" over the Tug near Barnes Corners. Going to be an incredibly sharp gradient on both sides of this band. 15 miles north of Watertown probably sees nothing, and 3 miles south of Pulaski sees maybe an inch, while in between snows for 3 days straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phillifan22 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Upped it again!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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