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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Winter!


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Happy New Year everyone!  We're down to some small patches of snow and ice here on the Niagara Frontier.  No signs of ice at all on the northeast end of Lake Erie or in the harbor. Here's a shot from this morning.  Looks like the entire lake is pretty much wide open right now too.  The recent warm-up plus high winds have broken up the little ice that had previously formed.  

 

Jan 2017 buf harbor.JPG

e2016_2017_ice.gif

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Unfortunately, from Wednesday through Friday, recent runs of both the GFS and European are not showing the blockbuster event that may transpire after the passage of the CF on Wednesday. Still very much up in the air since it's still 3 days away and with LES we all know what that means. Suffice to say, KBUF is not expecting anything substantial. Their talking accumulations on the order of a foot or more for a 3 day period, Meh. Only time will tell.

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1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

So sick of just tracking LES as I'm ready to track a synoptic bomb, but it seems like that's a stretch for our area, but one still prays for a 93 event once again as they are once in a century events.

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I would settle for a VD 2007 type storm. 

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5 hours ago, swva said:

Anyone in this band off Lake Ontario.  It looks pretty organized.  It's probably a mile or two away from me at the moment.

Drove through it on 81 this morning, Tinker  Tavern to Parish.  Not a big deal.  Amazing to see over a foot on the ground in Parish and only couple inches in Pulaski.  Ofcourse, I'll  take our 2' up here on the Hill. Good 3-4' on the ground in N Redfield/Osceola up on the high trails.

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38 minutes ago, danno said:

Drove through it on 81 this morning, Tinker  Tavern to Parish.  Not a big deal.  Amazing to see over a foot on the ground in Parish and only couple inches in Pulaski.  Ofcourse, I'll  take our 2' up here on the Hill. Good 3-4' on the ground in N Redfield/Osceola up on the high trails.

We are heading home tomorrow.  Good trip.  13.5" for the week.  Not spectacular but better than nothing.  Over 2' on the ground!  Until next year!

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Hey swva, it's was kool posting with ya, have a safe trip, happy new year and until yet year, Peace!
BTW, middle and late next week the storm track is going to drop much further South due to the intrusion of some Deep Dense Arctic Air and you may have a chance or 2 at a nice synoptic event. I know nothing is showing it now but the model's are notorious for not seeing much in the way of storms when Arctic Air is around or prior to its intrusion. Anyway, good luck and you cam still post from Swva, lol!

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Gfs/euro/ggem all like overnight wed into thursday for a favorable wind direction as the bands oscillate..

 

buf

 

Wednesday night and Thursday the colder airmass will continue to deepen
across our region...with 850 mb temps falling to at least the negative
mid teens...and possibly even a few degrees colder. Moisture will also
likely increase some as well...though considerable model differences
still exist with respect to exactly how moist our airmass will become...
and how quickly this moistening will occur. Meanwhile a general westerly
low level flow will remain in place...though the medium range guidance
packages also continue to suggest the potential for periodic undulations
in the low level flow that could move the lake snows around a bit...with
these very difficult to pin down at this vantage point.

Thus...while we can probably expect continued lake snows downwind of the
lakes to become at least somewhat better organized during this last
portion of the period...much question remains with respect to exactly how
well organized these will become and where they will be at any given
point in time...factors that do not exactly lend enough confidence for
the issuance of any headlines at this point. Put another way...while it
is certainly not out of the question that some areas could eventually pick
up some significant snowfall amounts during this time frame...it is still
far too early to speculate on exactly where and how much those would be
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Happy New Year everyone.  For the record, the poor KROC never got more than an inch of snow from the synoptic system and subsequent lake effect afterwards from the 29th through 31st.  Completely shafted. Looks like we'll have a fresh start later this week as the next few days will erase nearly every trace of snow including the bigger piles.  After that, things becomes more muddled as ample cold air appears to be available but potentially not where we want it.  At least things arent zonal or pacific based, so something interesting could happen.  

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I finally edited a video of my "chase" on 12/15/16.  The dual arctic front day.  The chase was more about visually checking out the band as it formed along the long axis, looking for waterspouts, and then checking on conditions in Wayne county and along the entire lakeshore where blizzard warnings had been issued.  I end the video by looping back to catch the main band as it reoriented over North central Monroe County.  I never did get into any great rates, but the short stint in Wayne county was extremely intense with periods of 0 visibility. A fun chase. 

 

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I finally edited a video of my "chase" on 12/15/16.  The dual arctic front day.  The chase was more about visually checking out the band as it formed along the long axis, looking for waterspouts, and then checking on conditions in Wayne county and along the entire lakeshore where blizzard warnings had been issued.  I end the video by looping back to catch the main band as it reoriented over North central Monroe County.  I never did get into any great rates, but the short stint in Wayne county was extremely intense with periods of 0 visibility. A fun chase. 

 


That was an awesome video bro. The music was suiting as well, lol!

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Why does BUF put out an HWO for these counties when there isn't any predicted hazardous weather?

NYZ001>005-010-011-013-014-031045-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
536 AM EST MON JAN 2 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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Why does BUF put out an HWO for these counties when there isn't any predicted hazardous weather?

NYZ001>005-010-011-013-014-031045-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
536 AM EST MON JAN 2 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.


Perhaps for a heads up??

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I don't know where KBUF is getting an e-se LES event as it looks to me like it's gonna be a w-sw flow aloft so I don't know but we'll see. I have a feeling this cold that is coming is coming void of any moisture or system and that would suck. The normal places east of the Lakes will make out HUGE this time around!

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14 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:


That was an awesome video bro. The music was suiting as well, lol!

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Thanks, it really did go well with the imagery.  

I wish there would have been more heavy snow to see, haha.  Maybe next time.  

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This pattern that's emerging the next week is absolutely disgusting. Bring back the warmth so at least we can get some moisture in here. Cold with no snow, lovely. Sounds like both BUF and BGM changed their tune on where the LE will be and that's mainly the Tug and North of there towards the North Country. The Adirondacks will do better with LES than we will here in the Cuse. KBUF, it's definitely ur turn. No doubt in my mind this time guys!

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