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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Winter!


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Yup, will be gone after the 3 day torch and rain next week.  Looks like we will end up with maybe 2" as band looks like it will ease on up into Oswego county as usual. Fulton, Central Square should do well tonight, maybe Oswego.  All tolled, about 6-7" for this "event" IMBY, most of which fell early this a.m. 

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This Wednesday to Saturday looks like it could be a great period for a prolonged LES event. Probably one of the last good ones of the season for Erie since the Western 1/4 of the lake is already ice covered and with the rest of the lake temp in the low to mid 30s the temperatures next week will likely just about finish her off for the year. Potential for next week does look nice though with a steady W to WSW flow for a solid 84 hours or so according to the GFS. 850mb temps look to be between -15 and -20C as well which would create some pretty extreme instability and steep lapse rates. This one would be nice cause I wouldn't have to chase too far. With a flow like that you'd probably see a bullseye off Erie between Springville and Boston as opposed to Springville to Ellicottville. Still wicked early but to me the potential for the last (but possibly the most major) lake effect event off Erie certainly looks good. 

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I'm not sure what's about to pass, or shall I say approaching the KBUF area looks like a CCB band, lol, but we all know it's not but if anyone can report conditions under those returns, that would be great. We're gonna wet bulb quickly so when that comes through, it may be all snow and a surprise for sure.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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6 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

How you doin up there, swva? How do the flakes look and what's the temp?

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32couple miles west of redfield.  1000 elevation.  Took awhile to saturate, snow started 1/2hour ago.  Flake size medium.

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