LakeEffectKing Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 I'm heading back to bed...should be a fun day for a good majority of us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 7 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: I'm heading back to bed...should be a fun day for a good majority of us! good idea! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Should be at least a couple hour break around 10AM-12PM this afternoon as moisture briefly dries out (almost completely) in the low/mid levels. This afternoon into this evening could be a lot of fun for the FZY-SYR corridor. Wouldn't want to take 481 during rush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Lots and Lots of moisture around for those lakes to play with thats for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Funny u mentioned that, my gf just called me at work all upset that she heard thunder and saw flashes of lightning (1.5 miles south of my current location) I didn't hear anything and told her it was probably a transformer that blew haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 I just woke up and looked at the overnight radar loop. It looks like my location has been in and out of heavy snow for the last several hours. Did a quick measurement and it looks like about 3 inches has fallen so far. In a lull right now but it looks like a nice cell is about to move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Thunder Snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2" here overnight, this graupel is becoming extremely annoying.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Technically we have 6"-7" since yesterday morning, inching closer to the 12"-18" forecast from the NWS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Crude/Rough thoughts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Just did a measurement - 3.3 inches overnight. It could have been more but like Wolfie said the flakes are currently graupel-like, certainly not the dendrites that we would like to see. Also, a band seems to be consolidating unfortunately just south of where I am. Channel 9's timecast has the main band moving south of Syracuse during the day today leaving the northern burbs high and dry. Tonight the band should move back north. In the 24 hours since 7 AM yesterday I've gotten just over 6 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 I guess the NWS see's something they don't like..Forecast went from 2"-4" today, 3"-5" tonight to 1"-3" for both..If u look at the "snowfall rate loop" we don't make it past "low" (0.5" or less) the remainder of the day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 An inch maybe overnight lol. Currently windy as hell and sun peaking through the clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Kbuf Steering flow of WNW or about 290 degrees continues to focus a bands of lake effect snow band on the southern shore of the lake into Oswego County and just clipping the extreme southern portion of Lewis County. At 7am, KTYX radar shows the most significant snows occuring from far northern Wayne and Cayuga counties into southern Oswego county. Radar estimated snowfall rates in the center of the Oswego county band indicate one to one and a half inches per hour. There also continues to be a few lighting flashes reported on detection network within this band. Lake Effect snow warnings remain in effect for extreme southern Lewis county, Oswego, Northern Cayuga and Wayne counties. Additional snowfall today in these areas will run from and inch or two across southern Lewis to around 3-6 inches from around Sodus Bay to around Oneida Lake. Lake Effect Snow Advisories remain in effect for Monroe and Orleans counties where an additional 1-2 inches of snow will fall today along with the blowing snow. Tonight, inversion heights will remain higher at around 8K feet with lake snows continuing southeast of the lake through much of the night from Wayne to Oswego counties. The western end of this activity will continue to brush the Orleans and Monroe county shorelines with some limited snow in the evening. Steering flow will begin to back to southwesterly through the night which will shift the band a little north while weakening. Expect additional accumulations of 2-4 inches tonight. Thundersnow... The 00z KBUF sounding showed a textbook thermal profile for a significant lake effect event with lapse rates of 8 deg c/km through 500 mb with a high cap and a fair amount of synoptic moisture. The sounding also depicts rather favorable conditions for a deep mixed phase cloud so that electrification (ie. thundersnow) can be anticipated. There was some strikes over Oswego county last evening and this morning. If you are watching the KBUF or KTYX radars from the NWS website...watch for dBZ of at least 35-40... which is indicative of the presence of graupel. Without graupel...there can be no electrification. This is probably best seen with the composite reflectivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 This is gonna bust at least for the day. I am not expecting much more through today in the Phoenix area. Picked up 1 to maybe 2" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 7 minutes ago, phoenixny said: This is gonna bust at least for the day. I am not expecting much more through today in the Phoenix area. Picked up 1 to maybe 2" so far. I bet not.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 what happened?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 I hope your right George! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 its a done deal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 This morning's band was progged to fall south....once the Geo. Bay band starts seeding the west end of Ontario, a new band will form in the vicinity of the Oswego/Onondaga Cos. border....between noon and 2....probably 1-2"/hr. type stuff.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 6 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: This morning's band was progged to fall south....once the Geo. Bay band starts seeding the west end of Ontario, a new band will form in the vicinity of the Oswego/Onondaga Cos. border....between noon and 2....probably 1-2"/hr. type stuff.... Sweet Jesus. Wanted to fire up my sled this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 4" overnight brings my total since Thursday morning to close to 9". 2.5" of the 4" came in 45 minutes though. LEK, any more love up this way today? Snowing very lightly but won't add up much at this rate and flake size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 10 minutes ago, swva said: 4" overnight brings my total since Thursday morning to close to 9". 2.5" of the 4" came in 45 minutes though. LEK, any more love up this way today? Snowing very lightly but won't add up much at this rate and flake size. I think for the most part, what you see is what you get....upslope all day...late tonight, as the band heads north, you may get a burst... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 KBGM still thinks the band over northern Onondaga county will refire later today as per LEK. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 10 AM Update...Main lake effect band is shifting south of Syracuse with passage of wave aloft...at this time, expect heaviest lake effect snow showers to remain mainly south of I-90 corridor until late this afternoon at which time band should migrate back north. Also, lake effect should remain fairly cellular / disorganized through much of this afternoon and while brief rates of 1+ inch per hour will be possible, don`t expect this to be persistent. Other area of primary concern for the next 6-9 hours will be NW Oneida County where moist, upslope flow is leading to persistent lake effect snow showers. As mentioned, still expect bands to shift back north to I-90 corridor late today into tonight so all told, no major changes to total expected total snow amounts and no changes to headlines. Grids were adjusted for today and tonight based on these latest trends however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 14 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: I think for the most part, what you see is what you get....upslope all day...late tonight, as the band heads north, you may get a burst... Thanks.. I'll be happy with what I have since we were in the 60's in VA this week. Upslope has even stopped for now. Hope it builds back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 4.5" overnight, which includes whatever fell yesterday afternoon...which was an inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Pretty persistent little band over N Orleans and Monroe. Light to Moderate, but fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 The GB is quite cloud-free at this time...not boding well for the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Nice burst of moderate snow! If nothing else, it's great to watch. Maybe we can pick up a quick inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 I will say this, yesterdays HRRR ( cant remember the exact run) but it had this event down to a T! From amounts, to placement to the fragmented look of the band so I think the HRRR is a pretty good model for LE and of course the RGEM but it too busted bad on totals, but maybe not so much because those totals were a 48hr total so they still might verify if this band ever forms, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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