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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Winter!


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I just woke up and looked at the overnight radar loop. It looks like my location has been in and out of heavy snow for the last several hours. Did a quick measurement and it looks like about 3 inches has fallen so far. In a lull right now but it looks like a nice cell is about to move in.

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Just did a measurement - 3.3 inches overnight. It could have been more but like Wolfie said the flakes are currently graupel-like, certainly not the dendrites that we would like to see. Also, a band seems to be consolidating unfortunately just south of where I am. Channel 9's timecast has the main band moving south of Syracuse during the day today leaving the northern burbs high and dry. Tonight the band should move back north. In the 24 hours since 7 AM yesterday I've gotten just over 6 inches of snow. 

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Kbuf

 

Steering flow of WNW or about 290 degrees continues
to focus a bands of lake effect snow band on the southern shore of
the lake into Oswego County and just clipping the extreme southern
portion of Lewis County. At 7am, KTYX radar shows the most
significant snows occuring from far northern Wayne and Cayuga
counties into southern Oswego county. Radar estimated snowfall rates
in the center of the Oswego county band indicate one to one and a
half inches per hour. There also continues to be a few lighting
flashes reported on detection network within this band. Lake Effect
snow warnings remain in effect for extreme southern Lewis county,
Oswego, Northern Cayuga and Wayne counties. Additional snowfall
today in these areas will run from and inch or two across southern
Lewis to around 3-6 inches from around Sodus Bay to around Oneida
Lake. Lake Effect Snow Advisories remain in effect for Monroe and
Orleans counties where an additional 1-2 inches of snow will fall
today along with the blowing snow.

Tonight, inversion heights will remain higher at around 8K feet with
lake snows continuing southeast of the lake through much of the
night from Wayne to Oswego counties. The western end of this
activity will continue to brush the Orleans and Monroe county
shorelines with some limited snow in the evening. Steering flow will
begin to back to southwesterly through the night which will shift
the band a little north while weakening. Expect additional
accumulations of 2-4 inches tonight.

 

Thundersnow...
The 00z KBUF sounding showed a textbook thermal profile for a
significant lake effect event with lapse rates of 8 deg c/km through
500 mb with a high cap and a fair amount of synoptic moisture. The
sounding also depicts rather favorable conditions for a deep mixed
phase cloud so that electrification (ie. thundersnow) can be
anticipated. There was some strikes over Oswego county last evening
and this morning. If you are watching the KBUF or KTYX radars from
the NWS website...watch for dBZ of at least 35-40... which is
indicative of the presence of graupel. Without graupel...there can
be no electrification. This is probably best seen with the composite
reflectivity.
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6 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

This morning's band was progged to fall south....once the Geo. Bay band starts seeding the west end of Ontario, a new band will form in the vicinity of the Oswego/Onondaga Cos. border....between noon and 2....probably 1-2"/hr. type stuff....

Sweet Jesus. Wanted to fire up my sled this afternoon. 

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10 minutes ago, swva said:

4" overnight brings my total since Thursday morning to close to 9".  2.5" of the 4" came in 45 minutes though.  

LEK, any more love up this way today?  Snowing very lightly but won't add up much at this rate and flake size.

I think for the most part, what you see is what you get....upslope all day...late tonight, as the band heads north, you may get a burst...

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KBGM still thinks the band over northern Onondaga county will refire later today as per LEK. 

 
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
10 AM Update...Main lake effect band is shifting south of
Syracuse with passage of wave aloft...at this time, expect
heaviest lake effect snow showers to remain mainly south of I-90
corridor until late this afternoon at which time band should
migrate back north. Also, lake effect should remain fairly
cellular / disorganized through much of this afternoon and while
brief rates of 1+ inch per hour will be possible, don`t expect
this to be persistent. Other area of primary concern for the next
6-9 hours will be NW Oneida County where moist, upslope flow is
leading to persistent lake effect snow showers. As mentioned,
still expect bands to shift back north to I-90 corridor late today
into tonight so all told, no major changes to total expected total
snow amounts and no changes to headlines. Grids were adjusted for
today and tonight based on these latest trends however.
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14 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

I think for the most part, what you see is what you get....upslope all day...late tonight, as the band heads north, you may get a burst...

Thanks.. I'll be happy with what I have since we were in the 60's in VA this week.

Upslope has even stopped for now.  Hope it builds back in.

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I will say this, yesterdays HRRR ( cant remember the exact run) but it had this event down to a T!  From amounts, to placement to the fragmented look of the band so I think the HRRR is a pretty good model for LE and of course the RGEM but it too busted bad on totals, but maybe not so much because those totals were a 48hr total so they still might verify if this band ever forms, lol!

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