CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 14 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: The synoptic part of the storm is over and I measured 3 inches from it, not bad. I agree that KBGM is dragging it's heels on making a call on the impending lake snow event. I sometimes feel like they put more effort in forecasting northeast Pennsylvania and the southern tier than up here in the far northern hinterlands. I agree 100%! Their more concerned about KBGM proper instead of the people who live in the Northern Lake effect belts. Come on the event is about to start and not even a special weather statement and I'm NOT talking about their tweets!! Pathetic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 6 hour total 4.25" in Redfield. Not bad for the "quiet" before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just as I was writing my last rant post about KBGM, they upgraded to a LESW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 My bad, they didn't yet as I was looking at KBUF's AFD without even noticing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Tonight colder air moves in from the west setting off lake effect snow showers. A band will drop into Oneida County this evening then into Onondaga and Madison late tonight. The snow should be heavy at times. On Friday 20 mph winds will create blowing snow. A lake effect snow watch remains in effect for these 3 counties tonight to Friday night. Total snow amounts up to a foot but any 12 hour period will be mostly in the advisory range of 3 to 6 inches. Will let the day shift upgrade when amounts are more certain and the synoptic snow is over. An advisory may be needed further south but the models keep the band mostly across the northern 3 counties for this period. Flow is close to 290 degrees. I knew it, lol, Advisories are a pretty good bet at this point, and I hope the band sits over Syracuse for 10hrs straight so they look like complete idiots. But you see, this is where they will upgrade and come up with some horrible explanation to cover their asses. What a shame. This isn't forecasting, its waiting to see what happens and then react to the changing conditions but you see that just wont work in these changing conditions! Apologies about my ranting but its warranted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 For them to say a band will drop into Oneida County from the North and head South makes little sense to me unless their thinking the band forms over Watertown on a 240 wind flow or something like that. This is just speculation on my part. This is gonna be an interesting event. For you guys up North in Redfield it looks like you guys may snow a bit more, as per KBGM as the Coastal takes over and the back edge slows and perhaps retrogrades a bit as the upper level takes on a Negative tilt which it already has so you may be in for a bit more synoptic love before mesoscale components take over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 29 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: My bad, they didn't yet as I was looking at KBUF's AFD without even noticing! Colors are too god damn close! At first glance it looks like we are all in warnings. Totally agree that should of upgraded by now or go with advisory. Not sure what's up with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Advisory and lake snow watches that is with colors. Me bad and stupid! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Looks like we're gonna see some rain this afternoon washing the 3" we got last night away, lol. Same thing looks like its gonna happen after this weekends synoptic event, Its becoming a pattern, an annoying one at that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Wicked pressure falls out over the Atlantic gulf stream where the warmer waters are! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 I guess they heard my cries, lol. I'm really confident for the Thruway corridor for a pounding late tonight through Saturday now that KBGM is on board as I really thought we were in for Advisories. The parameters are just too damn good to ignore, lol. Enjoy the ride folks and lets get a good obs page going! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 ONONDAGA-MADISON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SYRACUSE...HAMILTON...ONEIDA 326 PM EST THU DEC 29 2016 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY. * LOCATIONS...ONONDAGA AND MADISON COUNTIES. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS, FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. * TIMING...LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL DROP INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY, BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM. SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS ON FRIDAY. * WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS THAT HEAVY LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBILITIES VARY GREATLY AND CAN DROP TO ZERO WITHIN MINUTES. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL, KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT, FOOD, AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Some of these shorter range models look like Blah, unless I'm supposed to be excited for 1/4" of precipitation lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Here is the updated snowmap, already doing some decreasing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 The other nights event I was supposed to get 4-6" was under an advisory and got 0", lol!Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Here is the updated snowmap, already doing some decreasing.. Come on bro, ur complaining about 12-18"? They lowered amounts up on the TUG which I think should go lower because IMO, this is gonna be a 290-300 event, after a brief visit bay the band up North. They'll still cash in, as they always seem to but they won't see the blockbuster totals their used to. I could be wrong and probably am, lol.Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Alignment in Ontario is more NW-SE than I expected. Prob 290. http://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=WKR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Alls you have to do is look at the upper Great Lakes and see what it's like upstream. Looks like a WNW almost NW flow but like I said it's all in response to the Coastal.Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Tomorrow night seems like the best shot at "heavy snow", the NWS has 2"-4" overnight and 2"-4" during the day Friday.. Expect additional accumulations of 4-6 inches in persistent bands Friday night, with the greatest amounts found between Sodus Bay and Fulton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 The winds @H850 are already headed towards the WNW obviously right towards the developing Bomb South of Long Island. look at that band off Erie being aided by Huron! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 44 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Here is the updated snowmap, already doing some decreasing.. I think the earlier totals had today's synoptic snow included. So factoring that in they have not gone down too much. We have had close to 5" earlier. Just a thought! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 I'm trying to figure out why the HRRR is so damn paltry when it comes to accumulations. I haven't checked the NAM or WRF or KBUF's mesoscale models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Here is the updated snowmap, already doing some decreasing.. That's because it was valid from 4PM today through Saturday. It's basically the same map, minus the synoptic snowfall you got today. Now personally I don't know what to think of this event. Short term models are plain ugly in their QPF fields despite some pretty decent soundings. I think models may not have a good representation of lake surface temperatures (for reference, the NATICE data used for ice cover shows the western 1/4 of Lake Erie covered in ice), which completely screws with the ability to produce any lake induced precipitation. Regardless, I still dont like the strong winds aloft (>40kts) and the little bit of shear it has. Tonight will be sloppy, but by tomorrow morning things will be better, especially if we manage a lake connection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Very heavy snow in Redfield the past 30 minutes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Yea i doubt most of oswego county see's nada by lunch time tomorrow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 I will say this, snow growth is ideal for fast accumulating snows and the showers that are coming through now are packing a punch and its completely disorganized. If and when we get an organized band going look out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yea i doubt most of oswego county see's nada by lunch time tomorrow.. I think the models are having a difficult time with this event for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 The Tug is gonna get hammered either way you slice it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 I think it's our turn George and Brian! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 17 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I will say this, snow growth is ideal for fast accumulating snows and the showers that are coming through now are packing a punch and its completely disorganized. If and when we get an organized band going look out! Agree completely! We just got 2.5" in 45 minutes or less. Now it's like light graupel though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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