lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Merry Christmas everyone! Hope everyone has a fantastic holiday and and a snow filed New Year!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Merry Christmas everyone. Hope you all have a fantastic holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Merry Christmas everyone! Technically a white Christmas with snow on the ground but it would be nice to have a few flakes in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Merry Christmas to all my weather buddies! My your day be filled with lots of joy and happiness!Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2016 Author Share Posted December 25, 2016 Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Euro drops about 0.4" LE in the form of snow starting tomorrow night, then we just miss out on the "brunt" of a synoptic system to the SE before more LES sets in fri/sat.. 4k nam also has 0.40 of precipitation tomorrow night/Wednesday morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 "Weenie" run of the night, 2.5k Canadian, still a little outside its useful range lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 I gotta say that starting tonight and lasting through this upcoming weekend we can see periods of snow each day with varying amounts for each specific area, That Bomb that forms in the GOM is gonna be one for the record books I believe, but not really affecting the big cities of the Northeast but instead the Ski areas that need it and benefit from it will bear the brunt of this one. Its this system that really initiates the CAA needed to get the Lakes going because obviously the lakes have cooled so the amount of CAA needed, to see a lake response, is higher than whats needed in say late November, early December. After the passage of this system the area will see much more of a dominant CAA regime which lasts into early next week. We need to see how the bomb heads off to the NE to see how the BL winds react and what direction they will become and stay. I'm thinking a long drawn out NW -WNW flow event with multiple bands kind of like what occurred late November but if the winds are a bit more westerly, then it could turn out to be a Fulton to Central Square special! Suffice to say, the area is gonna get quite snowy with the cold coming in stages with one colder than its predecessor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 I think we have a shot at advisory level snow through tomorrow, NWS says maybe an inch or two, we'll see.. latest 3k nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 I think we have a shot at advisory level snow through tomorrow, NWS says maybe an inch or two, we'll see.. latest 3k nam items I'm thinking a definite advisory event for you but for Syracuse, not even an inch, lol!Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Canadian models like this event, somebody is going to get a nice dose of snow.. Hi Rez Canadian, Rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 KBGM is not expecting anything except for maybe No. Oneida County but that was before today's runs so we'll see. Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. * LOCATIONS...OSWEGO COUNTY. * TIMING...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES TONIGHT...1 TO 2 INCHES WEDNESDAY LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IN PERSISTENT SNOWS. HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN PERSISTENT SNOWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 247 PM EST TUE DEC 27 2016 NYZ009-018-036-037-281800- /O.NEW.KBGM.LE.Y.0009.161228T0000Z-161228T1800Z/ NORTHERN ONEIDA-ONONDAGA-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOONVILLE...SYRACUSE...HAMILTON... ONEIDA...ROME...UTICA 247 PM EST TUE DEC 27 2016 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY. * LOCATIONS...ONONDAGA, MADISON AND ONEIDA COUNTY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND DRIFTING SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES. * TIMING...A BAND OF SNOW WILL INTENSIFY THIS EVENING OVER ONEIDA COUNTY AND DROP SOUTHWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND IMPACT MADISON AND ONONDAGA COUNTIES. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS...THE HEAVY SNOW WILL CREATE SNOW COVERED ROADS. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES CREATING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. * WINDS...WEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP SEVERAL INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 I know there are not too many from Eastern Upstate NY here, but we may get a little something out of Thursday's storm. Typically, a track over CC would be great for ENY, but this will be very compact and developing just a bit too late for us to get anything big. We're used to it after the past several years. Still, we'll take what we can get:) Good luck to those that get in on the lake effect on the back side of this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Kbuf The improvement in the large-scale environment will be most pronounced over and downwind of Lake Ontario from later this evening on through early Wednesday morning...where inversion heights currently running around 4 kft will rise to around 8 kft...and where the deepest overall moisture will be in place. This will allow initially weak/disorganized lake effect snow showers across the Tug Hill to become better organized this evening...before shifting southward into Oswego and far southern Lewis counties overnight and early Wednesday morning as the low level flow backs a bit more west-northwesterly. After that time... the lake snows are expected to steadily weaken while shifting back northward through the rest of Wednesday...as the burgeoning surface high ushers in drier air...a lowering cap...and a backing/increasingly sheared low level flow. At this point...the large-scale environment and projected residence times still look to be supportive of lower-end advisory-worthy (4-6") accumulations across central Oswego and far southern Lewis counties between tonight and Wednesday morning...for which a lake effect snow advisory will be in place. Outside of the above areas... any accums from the Lake Ontario LES should be sub-advisory in nature...with little if any accumulation expected across most of Jefferson county. Thursday/Friday The entire event will be WNW flow, which will direct most of the heavier snow into areas southeast of Lake Ontario. A secondary trough will cross the lake Thursday evening, following that boundary layer flow will become well aligned and lake induced equilibrium levels will quickly rise to over 12Z feet. This should allow a band of lake effect snow to become better organized by mid to late evening mainly across Oswego County, with the band of snow quickly settling a little south and focusing on southern Oswego, northern Cayuga, and northern and eastern Wayne county later Thursday night through Friday night. The snow will taper off later Friday night as deeper moisture pulls away and inversion heights quickly lower. The northwest flow direction suggests an upstream connection to Georgian Bay will develop at times, which often is responsible for enhancing the Lake Ontario band under a WNW flow regime. Forecast soundings show a deep layer of moisture and a deep dendritic crystal growth layer, supporting heavy snow at times southeast of the lake. With this in mind, we have issued a Lake Effect Snow Watch for Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties Thursday evening through Friday night. In addition to the pure lake effect, some upslope, lake enhanced snow will also be found across the Tug Hill and northwest facing slopes of the western Adirondacks. Finally, the northwest flow will also likely allow some lake effect snow to move onshore at the western end of Lake Ontario, with light to moderate accumulations possible along the lakeshore in Niagara and Orleans counties. In the Rochester area, this flow direction tends to produce light to moderate snow along the lakeshore near Hilton, and also in the eastern suburbs with higher amounts staying east in Wayne County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 The next 4 days look like a lot of fun but next week the storm track turns ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 The next 4 days look like a lot of fun but next week the storm track turns ugly. One week at a time, mate Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Last week the model's had had us baking with a disastrous Ridge but that's not the case, so we'll see what happens!Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 It does look damn ugly though, lol!Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Just tryin to be positive!Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 You're right, I need to keep the faith. It's just that for the last 2 years, everything that could go wrong for us in winter, has gone wrong. Let's hope that's changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 It's surely changing for the North Country, as in the Green and Whites and the Adirondacks as they've been in a snow drought for at least 3-5yrs so maybe it'll extend SW wards towards our region, lol!!Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 That damn SE ridge needs a stake through the heart. You think it's dead, and then it comes right back to life and it's 45 and raining out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Kbuf snowfall map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 You cant complain about the possibilities over the next 10 days as per the GFS. Couple shots of lake effect for the South Shore folk and some marginal synoptic hits in between.. All that leading up to what appears to be a fairly robust and "long" lasting arctic outbreak. Lot of indices are dive bombing in the correct direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Steady light snow in Redfield started about 7:45pm. Not real organized at the moment. Hopefully a fun rest of the week up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 I'm loving the way this Thursday into Friday is starting to look on pretty much all guidance. Almost Synoptically identical to the November Event where as a secondary, or triple point low formed and the winds went NW-WNW cyclonically moist with plenty of synoptic scale moisture to work with as well as upper lake connections with Huron and GB and perhaps even Superior want to play ball. This is pretty much the middle of the event time wise with a cyclonic moisture filled environment with a pretty much non existent cap, inversion to speak of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 The one thing I like better about this upcoming event is more of a sustained WNW wind.. Nws The entire event will be WNW flow, which will direct most of the heavier snow into areas southeast of Lake Ontario. This should allow a band of lake effect snow to become better organized by mid to late evening mainly across Oswego County, with the band of snow quickly settling a little south and focusing on southern Oswego, northern Cayuga, and northern and eastern Wayne county later Thursday night through Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 37 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I'm loving the way this Thursday into Friday is starting to look on pretty much all guidance. Almost Synoptically identical to the November Event where as a secondary, or triple point low formed and the winds went NW-WNW cyclonically moist with plenty of synoptic scale moisture to work with as well as upper lake connections with Huron and GB and perhaps even Superior want to play ball. This is pretty much the middle of the event time wise with a cyclonic moisture filled environment with a pretty much non existent cap, inversion to speak of. We racked up here in Redfield in that November event. Not really expecting that again but could be a nice event. Air is not as cold with this blast either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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