southbuffalowx Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: What a horrible upcoming 10 days! On the bright side, we'll have a shot at thunderstorms near Christmas for the 3rd year in a row! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 It just amazes me as nearly the whole Month of December leading up to XMAS has been outstanding including the last 2 weeks of November and once we approach the holiday season, things flip to warm and its absolutely mind boggling as it happens way to often. Why didn't it just stay friggin warm till the 2nd week of December and then flip to cold, but NO, Let the cold invade the Country as a whole but let it disappear just before the holidays except in the WEST, as if they need the friggen cold in WA, OR or Cali for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 See everyone the week of the inauguration as it's looking like that's when me may see some cold air return, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 17 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: See everyone the week of the inauguration as it's looking like that's when me may see some cold air return, lol! Yea see ya boys next year, winter has decided to take a break lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 49 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: Yea see ya boys next year, winter has decided to take a break lol 6z GFS offers some hope showing a decent shot of cold prior to and around New Years. Would open the lakes for business before the SE ridge tries to turn the flow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 May be a small window tue/wed to get in some lake effect.. Colder air will drop temperatures back to near normal by Tuesday in the wake of this system with a chance of a few lake effect snow showers east of the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Don't know whats wrong with the GFS but there is NO blowtorch in the long range unless this model is alone with its prognosis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 49 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Don't know whats wrong with the GFS but there is NO blowtorch in the long range unless this model is alone with its prognosis! Euro might want to play too. Check out end of next week on 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Interesting to say the least so I guess we gotta wait to see if its transient or it wants sticks around. Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Along with the cold, a LES storm would be causing all kinds of trouble. If this does come to pass this would be causing all kinds of problems. Its in fantasy land so lets watch it but first and for most, I'm more concerned with temps even if their +2+3F AN we can still snow. Even in an AN pattern we can snow so I'm not too concerned.................. yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 same time stamp on image. Came through twice for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Nice little burst of snow swinging through here right now. I needed to look out the window and see something nice after watching 2 hours of the worst basketball I've ever seen. OT, but SU hoops is an absolute debacle right now. They're usually my remedy for pathetic Buffalo teams. What now...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 I will be coming up for my annual vacation to Redfield, NY Dec. 26-Jan. 2 so have been watching models up there closely. I see much more promise than I did a couple days ago. Tuesday/Wednesday possibilities and then late next week could be lots of fun. Long way to go but at least the blowtorch has backed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 I got about an inch and a half here overnight. It's definitely a wet, snowball making snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 About 1 1/2 here also. heavy heavy wet snow. Temp is 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 2" fell overnight in Fulton, currently 34.5 degrees with a light mix..Cracked the half century mark on the yr.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 2" overnight in Clay, same as Fulton. The much dreaded SE ridge and associated torching doesn't look to establish itself for very long, maybe a day or so after Christmas and then back to fun and games it appears to start 2017. Total of 43" of snow IMBY thusfar, which is close to our entire seasonal snowfall last winter. Can't complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Canadian wants to throw us a bone late Tuesday into Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 48 minutes ago, Syrmax said: 2" overnight in Clay, same as Fulton. The much dreaded SE ridge and associated torching doesn't look to establish itself for very long, maybe a day or so after Christmas and then back to fun and games it appears to start 2017. Total of 43" of snow IMBY thusfar, which is close to our entire seasonal snowfall last winter. Can't complain. Things did seem to break our way. We escaped the last storm with about 4 inches of thick crusty snowpack here, and now what looked like a really ugly SE ridge and prolonged torch with a cutter is more like a couple of warm-ish days with a mild frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 A light at the end of the tunnel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 That look right there would bring the pain! -NAO -AO +PNA very nice to see! Let's see how long it lasts unless this is what we see for the rest of the Winter. Either way, looking good compared to what we all thought was coming Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 2 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: That look right there would bring the pain! -NAO -AO +PNA very nice to see! Let's see how long it lasts unless this is what we see for the rest of the Winter. Either way, looking good compared to what we all thought was coming Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Seriously judging on the model runs couple days ago it looked like winter will be gone for couple weeks lol now they did a 180 and showing this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 Seriously judging on the model runs couple days ago it looked like winter will be gone for couple weeks lol now they did a 180 and showing this..I personally have never seen this kind of, about face, from the model's so this tells me there is something else going on here.Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 Wow, more than just light at the end of the tunnel, its a full blown PV intrusion. Its still way out, but it looks like numerous chances for Buffalo to score big on some SW flow events. The cold air just continues to pour in and build. It's a Christmas Miracle!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 I just hope it's believable but every signal was pointing to normal to above for at least 2 weeks but that's been far removed and we start building a glacier throughout the NE except near the coast. SE Ridge will fight with the cold all season and it will not make the MA folk happy that I can guarantee. Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 Still think we have a good chance at some light snow accumulation on tues night, the euro has a little "bullseye" about 1/4" LE for fulton on tues night, GGem has looked solid for a couple days now.. kbuf on Tuesday as cold air pours back into the region in the wake of Monday night`s cold frontal passage. With 850mb temps falling to -8C to -10C, it will be marginally cold enough for lake effect snows. Models currently indicate that greater synoptic moisture and more favorable profiles will be found across Lake Ontario, where a higher chance of snow will be found from Tuesday through Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 Ton of potential on the gem/euro over the next 10 days including tues night on a 290-300 flow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 5 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Ton of potential on the gem/euro over the next 10 days including tues night on a 290-300 flow.. Agreed! Thursday night - Saturday looks significant. Bullseye will shift around but looks like GGEM has it in southern/central Oswego and Euro Central/Northern Oswego. Good signs for this far out. Also agree that Tuesday into Wednesday could give at least advisory snows. It may be too far south for me up in Redfield but I'm sure that will shift around as well. What looked like a dismal vacation for me in Redfield weather wise is shaping up to have tons of opportunity at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 Question for this group: What is the best short term model for forecasting LES? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 I usually look at the NAM, HRRR and RGEM. Then pick the one that seems to most closely resemble actual conditions. If I had to pick one: RGEM. Buffalo WRF also useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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