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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Winter!


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We may be in first after tonight's little LES event as its coming down quite heavily here in Liverpool and the healthier of the 2 bands is dropping South to become the dominant band. If we can manage to keep the connection going into tonight then we may be in business so we'll see what happens the next couple hours.  This can be quite a surprise for some but if my post from yesterday was read then it may have given a few on here a heads up.  The other scenario that I can see happening is the band settles to So. Oswego Cty and sit's there on a WNW flow but this scenario is much less likely but like I said we'll see.!

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1 hour ago, BGM Blizzard said:

It poured last night and into this morning a bit but now safely back down below freezing. Managed to keep a solid 4-5 inches of what is now cement. Don't see this going away before Xmas day as the models keep trending weaker and weaker with the Thursday system. 

Both the 0z & 12z of today's GFS para runs have shown some interesting storm tracks for our area for that xmas storm, the 0z had that rare Appalachian runner while the 18z has the typical miller b track.gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png\

 

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png

gfsp_asnow_neus_35.png

gfsp_asnow_neus_37.png

 

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5 minutes ago, ayuud11 said:

Both the 0z & 12z of today's GFS para runs have shown some interesting storm tracks for our area for that xmas storm, the 0z had that rare Appalachian runner while the 18z has the typical miller b track.gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png\

 

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png

gfsp_asnow_neus_35.png

gfsp_asnow_neus_37.png

 

Why is the snowfall data missing along the south shore of Lake Ontario?

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1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Good 2"-3" on the ground, still coming down at a decent clip.. Nice surprise event and snow pack refresher..

About the same here but only snowing lightly now. I assume from your avatar that you're a Giants fan. I've been one for more years than I wish to mention. Let's just say I remember the days of Fran Tarkenton and Homer Jones. They're doing pretty well this year, the defense has really stepped up. Now we need the offense to play better. 

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Really like tomorrow for a sneak attack off Erie much like we saw Friday. Most hi-res don't show anything but both the BTV and BUF WRFs show a band working toward the metro and setting up shop for several hours. Doesn't look to be that organized but who knows. Both WRFs keyed in on the Friday setup pretty well. Looking upstream can already see the bands backing to a WSW flow. BTV even puts a bullseye of .40 over the southtowns.
32233f82a8f372251ec267ec4da3b2e6.png
b75b1cf2cf97f9331ac42b4ff96b9510.png
eb079ac9935067058ffd6478797d2170.gif


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Really like tomorrow for a sneak attack off Erie much like we saw Friday. Most hi-res don't show anything but both the BTV and BUF WRFs show a band working toward the metro and setting up shop for several hours. Doesn't look to be that organized but who knows. Both WRFs keyed in on the Friday setup pretty well. Looking upstream can already see the bands backing to a WSW flow. BTV even puts a bullseye of .40 over the southtowns.
32233f82a8f372251ec267ec4da3b2e6.png
b75b1cf2cf97f9331ac42b4ff96b9510.png
eb079ac9935067058ffd6478797d2170.gif


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Nice 4" surprise snow of sorts in Clay while i was in movie theatre. I wasnt paying close attention to this other than read KBGM AFD earlier...wasn't expecting much more than a passing snow shower.  So we about matched our snowfall from the saturday morning system, in a few hours.

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Nice 4" surprise snow of sorts in Clay while i was in movie theatre. I wasnt paying close attention to this other than read KBGM AFD earlier...wasn't expecting much more than a passing snow shower.  So we about matched our snowfall from the saturday morning system, in a few hours.


I posted about this yesterday but I guess no one caught the post.

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1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Really like tomorrow for a sneak attack off Erie much like we saw Friday. Most hi-res don't show anything but both the BTV and BUF WRFs show a band working toward the metro and setting up shop for several hours. Doesn't look to be that organized but who knows. Both WRFs keyed in on the Friday setup pretty well. Looking upstream can already see the bands backing to a WSW flow. BTV even puts a bullseye of .40 over the southtowns.
32233f82a8f372251ec267ec4da3b2e6.png
b75b1cf2cf97f9331ac42b4ff96b9510.png
eb079ac9935067058ffd6478797d2170.gif


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Hopefully the trend of good luck continues and we pick up a quick 3-5" as that moves up toward the city lol

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15 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

A better radar would be our local news station channel 9 wsyr!

If only WSYR hadn't rendered their website virtually unusable over the past several years. Used to be a go to radar site a decade ago. Then they junked their website up with so much garbage that it seems most of the browsers I use, or mobile devices, act like **** on their site. I barely visit it anymore, but the radar is good.

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2 hours ago, CNY_WX said:

About the same here but only snowing lightly now. I assume from your avatar that you're a Giants fan. I've been one for more years than I wish to mention. Let's just say I remember the days of Fran Tarkenton and Homer Jones. They're doing pretty well this year, the defense has really stepped up. Now we need the offense to play better. 

You must be around my age...I remember #10 scrambling like a mad man for Big Blue as a young kid.  But I best remember him for his 3 SB losses with Vikes.   Measured 4" from our lake snow bonus.

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17 hours ago, ayuud11 said:

Both the 0z & 12z of today's GFS para runs have shown some interesting storm tracks for our area for that xmas storm, the 0z had that rare Appalachian runner while the 18z has the typical miller b track.gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png\

 

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png

gfsp_asnow_neus_35.png

gfsp_asnow_neus_37.png

 

 

To cut or not to cut...that is the question....

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The 12Z GFS is a total disaster for our snowpack next week. 2 major cutters including a northern plains blizzard. If that verified we'd be in the 50s at the end of next week.  At least it's still a long way out and the model's been all over the place. 


I'd worry about Thursdays event first before we look at the following week.

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15 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

The 12Z GFS is a total disaster for our snowpack next week. 2 major cutters including a northern plains blizzard. If that verified we'd be in the 50s at the end of next week.  At least it's still a long way out and the model's been all over the place. 

Yeah after Christmas looks to be very disaterious for any winter weather here in the NE. We could definitely all be looking at bare ground, 50s and rain by New Years. Ugh... just when I thought we were finally gonna have a decent season here for snow it looks like we could go virtually snowless for several weeks at least...

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