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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Winter!

BuffaloWeather

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted
About 4 inches new here overnight, gets us to 10 inches over the last 24 hours.  All without a single advisory from BUF...


Yeah, that made absolutely no sense at all like Delta alluded to yesterday, being the only CWA Without any headlines. Headlines stretched from Montana to every state across the Northern border clear to the coast except for KBUF, lol.

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BGM Blizzard

BGM Blizzard

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Ended up with 3.5-4 here and generally 2-4" area wide in CNY with a few spots of 5". If its not the mixed precip line that rues the day, its usually the dreaded dry slot coming in either earlier than expected or through a different location than modeled, but even before that could punch through at 8am, we got raked pretty good by a strong band for a few hours with what looked like 1-2"/hr rates. 

What looked like a decent warm up this week is starting to look a little less so, and the prospects of what looked to be a sure-fire pre-xmas lakes cutter now looks a little weaker and may actually end up passing SE of the area if we thread the needle like the 12z Canadian and European models seem to show. Starting to think we may actually be able to hold on to atleast some snow pack thru Xmas day... at least in these parts.

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

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Ended up with 3.5-4 here and generally 2-4" area wide in CNY with a few spots of 5". If its not the mixed precip line that rues the day, its usually the dreaded dry slot coming in either earlier than expected or through a different location than modeled, but even before that could punch through at 8am, we got raked pretty good by a strong band for a few hours with what looked like 1-2"/hr rates. 

What looked like a decent warm up this week is starting to look a little less so, and the prospects of what looked to be a sure-fire pre-xmas lakes cutter now looks a little weaker and may actually end up passing SE of the area if we thread the needle like the 12z Canadian and European models seem to show. Starting to think we may actually be able to hold on to atleast some snow pack thru Xmas day... at least in these parts.


Was thinking the exact same thing after seeing the new 12Z GFS which also shows the same scenario. All three have something similar, then it's something to watch for. The GFS had the current system modeled correctly for 5 days straight with little deviation. Doesn't look like the Euro is the go to anymore because it's been abysmal as or late.

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

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No one has mentioned the possibility of a brief LES event Sunday evening into and overnight hours.  We briefly get eq's to hit close to 10kft with modest but efficient amount of Moisture plus an upstream connection to both Huron and GB so its just something to think about.  This is primarily for the area E-SE of Lake Ontario.  We may be able to replenish what we lose tonight with the 12" if rain we get tonight  but the pack should be able to take 1/2" with ease with temps in the mid 30's.  it's not going into the 50's like once first thought by MANY.

Long range isn't looking too bad right now but its still a long ways off, but the last few runs have been promising so we'll see.  For now will focus on short term.

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

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I thinl I can honestly say goodbye to whatever is otg because with rising DP's and wind increasing with fog building in is a definite snow eater for sure.  I expect to have 0 snow present tomorrow afternoon. These are the Winters I absolutely despise.  Gain snow coner than lose just as fat if not faster.  Whats the use of it even snowing anymore.  Times they have changed.  Hope they return before I croak, lol!!

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cny rider

cny rider

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4 inches here.....and we have a pretty good snowpack.

I'd say this is an outperformer on cold.....still 31F here.  I expected to have gone above freezing about 6 hours ago.

Since we should be back below freezing around noon tomorrow I think our pack will survive, albeit taking a modest hit.

 

 

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted
4 inches here.....and we have a pretty good snowpack.

I'd say this is an outperformer on cold.....still 31F here.  I expected to have gone above freezing about 6 hours ago.

Since we should be back below freezing around noon tomorrow I think our pack will survive, albeit taking a modest hit.

 

 


I just don't see it happening but we'll see what happens. We just went above freezing here in Syracuse so not sure all downhill from here! Fog combined with wind and high DR'S and you can honestly say goodbye to your cover but I hope you make it through.

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

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1 hour ago, cny rider said:

4 inches here.....and we have a pretty good snowpack.

I'd say this is an outperformer on cold.....still 31F here.  I expected to have gone above freezing about 6 hours ago.

Since we should be back below freezing around noon tomorrow I think our pack will survive, albeit taking a modest hit.

 

 

Where you are, may be worse, due to elevation as winds should be much higher as you go up in elevation combined with dense fog and high DP's,  good luck brutha as I hope you hold on to whatever snow cover you can!

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

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Winds on the West side of the front are running parallel to the front or else this front would of made its way through already but not this year, lol! If we were able to get this front through before this slug of moisture comes through would of been awesome but we are just not lucky enough. Nevermind the fact thats its a POS open wave!

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cny rider

cny rider

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Posted
13 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:


I just don't see it happening but we'll see what happens. We just went above freezing here in Syracuse so not sure all downhill from here! Fog combined with wind and high DR'S and you can honestly say goodbye to your cover but I hope you make it through.

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Yeah I underestimated the power of the 47F and raining, magic snow eraser.

We still have 95% of the ground covered but as far as skiing on it, fuhgettaboutit.

It's a tragedy.  The nordic skiing was wonderful yesterday.

 

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ayuud11

ayuud11

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, cny rider said:

Yeah I underestimated the power of the 47F and raining, magic snow eraser.

We still have 95% of the ground covered but as far as skiing on it, fuhgettaboutit.

It's a tragedy.  The nordic skiing was wonderful yesterday.

 

We still have decent snowpack here in buffalo despite it raining heavy at times last night but whatever melted just refroze so black ice everywhere lol

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, ayuud11 said:

We still have decent snowpack here in buffalo despite it raining heavy at times last night but whatever melted just refroze so black ice everywhere lol

Yeah we still have a good pack here, solid 6-8" of fricken cement. Amazed at how much snow is still left and how big the snow piles on the side of the road still are. Didn't take nearly as much of a hit as I thought we would. 

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SouthBuffaloSteve

SouthBuffaloSteve

Posted
Posted

Double post once again??

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Yeah I can't figure this out. Tried fully signing out and back in. Made a post that only went through once then another one a few minutes later and it doubled. Tried deleting and reposting and still shows up twice. No idea why it's randomly doubling...


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SouthBuffaloSteve

SouthBuffaloSteve

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Posted

Double post once again??

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Yeah I can't figure this out. Tried fully signing out and back in. Made a post that only went through once then another one a few minutes later and it doubled. Tried deleting and reposting and still shows up twice. No idea why it's randomly doubling...


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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted

Yeah I can't figure this out. Tried fully signing out and back in. Made a post that only went through once then another one a few minutes later and it doubled. Tried deleting and reposting and still shows up twice. No idea why it's randomly doubling...


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No biggie bro

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Coming down here too. In the middle of a nice lake band with a GB connection. Nice flake size, too. IMG_0475.JPG

IMG_0467.JPG

This is what I was touting yesterday that people ESE of the Lake needed to watch out from late this afternoon, through tonight, for the development of a nice band , with connections to GB and Huron.  Eq's get up to 8kft with upper lake connections which will aid in the development of the band, in an otherwise dry environment.  I'm not saying a foot of snow is gonna fall but we can easily see up to 3" with a few areas picking up a bit more, like the Tug and in the hills South of Syracuse.

 

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

Short term forecast 

 

  
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTIES.
A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS BAND OF SNOW
WILL DROP AROUND 2 INCHES OF FRESH ACCUMULATION FOR AREAS FROM
FAIR HAVEN TO PARISH THROUGH 6 PM...INCLUDING THE FULTON AREA.
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