wolfie09 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 This was buffalo this morning The ECMWF has shown a good deal of inconsistency with this system, as previous runs looked more similar to the current 12Z GFS. With this in mind, went closer to GFS based guidance with snow likely for Wednesday. In the wake of this system cold air will flood into the Great Lakes Thursday and Friday. This will be the coldest air of the season, with 850mb temps plummeting to -20C or colder. A look at sounding climatology, values this cold would be close to record minimum at 850 hPa, with mid-December moving record-minimum average around - 20C. Given this, will keep temperatures below guidance for the Thursday through Friday night period. This will translate into highs in the teens and lows in the single numbers away from the immediate lakeshores. There may also be a few sub-zero readings within the traditionally colder interior spots. In addition wind chills both days will likely fall below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Picked up about an inch or so during the day, seeing some of the heaviest snow of the event currently, which is not saying much lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 A day on the lake effect snow chase in WNY... Left Amherst/Snyder around noon with a very slight dusting on the ground. Picked up Center Rd. in East Aurora, only an inch or two in the village. Ran into the lake effect band about 2 miles south of East Aurora near South Wales. Pretty much 1-2"/hr. snow as soon as we ran into the band. Continued south on Center Road through Holland and down to Genesee Road, eventually stopping at the Erie County Forest in East Concord. Max snow rate during this stretch was probably a tad under 3"/hr. Snow depth at East Concord was estimated at 24-30" (official spotter report from today at 3PM for this area was 33"). Started hike in heavy snow, which transitioned into bright blue skies after about 10 minutes as the band moved just to our north. Hiked the next couple hours under clear skies and temps in low 20's. Band moved back overhead with about 1/2 mile left in hike. Hiked the last stretch in very heavy snow with low visibility as sun was starting to set. Drive back home on the 219 was in the band until about 3 miles south of Hamburg. Here's a few pics: first one from the Erie County Forest parking area facing east down Genesee Rd; second one at the "Bridge Too Far" in the forest; and third during a sunny part of the hike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 I told you guys I like the potential for sat night lol If the hrrr is correct the NWS will be busting low tonight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Almost 1/2" liquid equivalent with high ratios, sign me up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 000 NOUS41 KBUF 102011 PNSBUF NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-110811- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 311 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2016 ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT NEW YORK ...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY... CATTARAUGUS 36.0 1230 PM 12/10 SOCIAL MEDIA NAPOLI 34.0 152 PM 12/10 PUBLIC PERRYSBURG 30.0 200 PM 12/10 COOP OBSERVER ELLICOTTVILLE 30.0 122 PM 12/10 SOCIAL MEDIA 1 NNE HUMPHREY 24.0 230 PM 12/10 TRAINED SPOTTER 3 W FRANKLINVILLE 13.5 1044 AM 12/10 3 DAY STORM TOTAL ...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY... 2 E SINCLAIRVILLE 30.0 119 PM 12/10 STORM CHASER FINDLEY LAKE 17.8 1200 PM 12/10 PUBLIC ...ERIE COUNTY... SPRINGVILLE 36.0 1208 PM 12/10 SOCIAL MEDIA EAST CONCORD 33.0 200 PM 12/10 TRAINED SPOTTER SARDINIA 20.5 1115 AM 12/10 TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 Someone is going to get 50", insane rates right now down in ski country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 ...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY... CATTARAUGUS 36.0 1230 PM 12/10 SOCIAL MEDIA NAPOLI 34.0 152 PM 12/10 PUBLIC PERRYSBURG 30.0 200 PM 12/10 COOP OBSERVER ELLICOTTVILLE 30.0 122 PM 12/10 SOCIAL MEDIA 1 NNE HUMPHREY 24.0 230 PM 12/10 TRAINED SPOTTER 3 W FRANKLINVILLE 13.5 1044 AM 12/10 3 DAY STORM TOTAL ...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY... 2 E SINCLAIRVILLE 30.0 119 PM 12/10 STORM CHASER FINDLEY LAKE 17.8 1200 PM 12/10 PUBLIC ...ERIE COUNTY... SPRINGVILLE 36.0 1208 PM 12/10 SOCIAL MEDIA EAST CONCORD 33.0 200 PM 12/10 TRAINED SPOTTER SARDINIA 20.5 1115 AM 12/10 TRAINED SPOTTER 25 min (18.5 mi) via US-219 N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 32 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: A day on the lake effect snow chase in WNY... Left Amherst/Snyder around noon with a very slight dusting on the ground. Picked up Center Rd. in East Aurora, only an inch or two in the village. Ran into the lake effect band about 2 miles south of East Aurora near South Wales. Pretty much 1-2"/hr. snow as soon as we ran into the band. Continued south on Center Road through Holland and down to Genesee Road, eventually stopping at the Erie County Forest in East Concord. Max snow rate during this stretch was probably a tad under 3"/hr. Snow depth at East Concord was estimated at 24-30" (official spotter report from today at 3PM for this area was 33"). Started hike in heavy snow, which transitioned into bright blue skies after about 10 minutes as the band moved just to our north. Hiked the next couple hours under clear skies and temps in low 20's. Band moved back overhead with about 1/2 mile left in hike. Hiked the last stretch in very heavy snow with low visibility as sun was starting to set. Drive back home on the 219 was in the band until about 3 miles south of Hamburg. Here's a few pics: first one from the Erie County Forest parking area facing east down Genesee Rd; second one at the "Bridge Too Far" in the forest; and third during a sunny part of the hike. Great pics Bumble! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Great pics Bumble! Thanks man. Pretty crazy gradient on this one so far just south of your backdoor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 2 hours ago, Syrmax said: Same place they got 1-2 feet of snow for us the past 2 days? very true, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Having to work late but definitely going on a chase tonight to Springville to catch that band and see how much snow there is. Might not be until midnight but it should be a fun trip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Having to work late but definitely going on a chase tonight to Springville to catch that band and see how much snow there is. Might not be until midnight but it should be a fun trip! That band will probably closing in on the city by midnight. I get off work at 11 and if it looks promising I'll be cruising around the south towns. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 6 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Having to work late but definitely going on a chase tonight to Springville to catch that band and see how much snow there is. Might not be until midnight but it should be a fun trip! Can you get out before? I'm able to go now? Check your phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: That band will probably closing in on the city by midnight. I get off work at 11 and if it looks promising I'll be cruising around the south towns. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk No model has it that far north until tomorrow morning. It's going to be a close call for the city IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 Judging by this radar that band should hit Buffalo all night, but no model shows it happening. Upper level winds are all over and start to turn offshore tomorrow morning which limits extent as mentioned by KBUF, those close to lake erie shoreline will be hit the hardest. https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/oh/cleveland/cle/?region=bgm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 Winds near Cleveland are SW, Winds over Fort Erie are due West/NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Mesolow coming ashore right around Oswego. Wouldn't be surprised to hear some thunder and perhaps a couple strikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Very intense snow coming down all across Oswego County! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/on/king-city/wkr/?region=bgm Winds out of W in Canada, SW near Cleveland. I don't think the band makes it that far north in the next few hours at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 24 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Very intense snow coming down all across Oswego County! Very nice meso low 1-3" per hour in that thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/on/king-city/wkr/?region=bgm Winds out of W in Canada, SW near Cleveland. I don't think the band makes it that far north in the next few hours at least.I dunno it sure looks like it's screaming north even with the curvature kink. I'm thinking Hamburg and OP will getting hit by 10. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 NAM since Southtowns/South Buffalo get hit from 2 Am right through 10 AM before the synoptic stuff shows up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 13 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: I dunno it sure looks like it's screaming north even with the curvature kink. I'm thinking Hamburg and OP will getting hit by 10. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk You might be right that is a wide band too, 20 miles or so. Wolfie how is that Meso low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 11, 2016 Author Share Posted December 11, 2016 Few pics from this event so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Coming down at a moderate clip, 1.5" of new snow so far.. Pups 1st year in the snow, she loves it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Snow really coming down now, easy inch per hour.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Few pics from this event so far. Wow! Looks great where you went. Where did you end up stopping? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 You might be right that is a wide band too, 20 miles or so. Wolfie how is that Meso low?Can't really tell if it's still sliding north or just growing wider. Pretty nice looking band at the moment. Radar looks like it's just about to start effecting north of 20A. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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