BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 As we conclude our 2nd very major LES event on the season across the Southern Tier and Ski country our attention now turns to a synoptic event that will affect much of our subforum. Accumulations look to be a general 4-6" on Sunday-Monday time period. There is also a shot of a brief period of LES for areas south of Buffalo before the snow moves in from the system. I expect a few inches from this across the distant southtowns and maybe even south Buffalo. CPC has us in the heavy snow hazard for this system. There is some disagreement on what happens following this storm. GGEM has this. The GEFS has a variety of solutions. KBUF mentions it: On Wednesday the longwave trough will begin to dig into the Northern Plains and Upper Great Lakes. Ahead of the trough, medium range model guidance develops a baroclinic wave over the Ohio Valley and Northeast. The GFS and most of it`s ensemble members along with the Canadian GEM are more aggressive with this, and would produce a general light to moderate snowfall across the entire area. The 12Z ECMWF is much weaker with this feature. The ECMWF has shown a good deal of inconsistency with this system, as previous runs looked more similar to the current 12Z GFS. With this in mind, went closer to GFS based guidance with snow likely for Wednesday. Following this storm the polar vortex pays a visit in almost all Ensemble packages with very cold air spilling across the great lakes and Northeast Thursday-Sunday we will most likely have another major lake effect snow event. It's anyones guess where the bands line up, but most likely similar areas to those affected the last few days. In the longer range winter looks to maintain its grip across the country, much different than last years raging El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 Latest NAM has a decent lake effect band affecting areas south of Buffalo Sunday morning. Would be really cool to see during the Bills Game against Pitts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 30 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Latest NAM has a decent lake effect band affecting areas south of Buffalo Sunday morning. Would be really cool to see during the Bills Game against Pitts. This is something I hadn't even considered for Sunday. I had been hoping the synoptic snow would show up earlier but this is a way better and more plausible angle to follow. I've always dreamt of seeing orchard park get destroyed by a classic 240/250 event during a day game. Maybe someday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Still pretty big difference between 0z NAM and GFS for sunday/money system. NAM is 6mb stronger and about a 150 miles further n/w with the primary low track with highest totals across the Dacks/North Country vs. roughly from about I-90 and points south on the GFS. The counties invof I-90 are probably the most favored area right now, particularly the hills near and east of I-81 as that region would appear to be most favorable based on temps/qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: This is something I hadn't even considered for Sunday. I had been hoping the synoptic snow would show up earlier but this is a way better and more plausible angle to follow. I've always dreamt of seeing orchard park get destroyed by a classic 240/250 event during a day game. Maybe someday. 250/255 flow would be best for OP. Here is an pretty big event that hit during the Bills game. https://web.archive.org/web/20080724120916/http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/lake0203/c/stormc.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: This is something I hadn't even considered for Sunday. I had been hoping the synoptic snow would show up earlier but this is a way better and more plausible angle to follow. I've always dreamt of seeing orchard park get destroyed by a classic 240/250 event during a day game. Maybe someday. Seriously, what would they do if 4"/hr rates parked themselves right over Orchard Park mid-game? Put it on hold and finish when it's all clear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 RGEM has the band moving north too, going to be close call here for Lake effect snow Advs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 That 2002 game was awesome. If that band would have moved in an hour sooner it would have been quite a mess. It moved in late 4th quarter and I remember watching it and at points it looked like the picture all went to static fuzz with how hard it was coming down. They did have some troubles getting people out of the lots but again it could have been worse. Here's the only video I can find of the game. If your a bills fan watch the whole thing as it was a great game. If you just like the snow fast forward to the last 30 seconds.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Canadian and euro both have about 1/4" -1/3" LE (lake effect) for sat night in Fulton, same timeframe kbuf has pops decreasing, go figure lol The synoptic system is not too impressive, looks like a 2"-4" type of deal.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Maybe I'm optimistic here but i think we got a chance here to pick up at least 2-4" from the LES lifting up north here later on tonight with another 4-6" of the synoptic stuff tomorrow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 2 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: Maybe I'm optimistic here but i think we got a chance here to pick up at least 2-4" from the LES lifting up north here later on tonight with another 4-6" of the synoptic stuff tomorrow.. Probably only going to be areas close to the shore, I doubt it'll extend past the 90. It would be nice to pick up on some of next week's event, but that looks to be on the lower probability side of things right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Nice light steady snow at the moment, some really big flakes flying..Temp at the house 19.8.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Never even got a quarter inch here . Super disappointing. On the other lake, the Erie band(s) look absolutely fantastic. Jogging north, gaining fetch and connections. I wish I was on 219 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 That Erie band is stronger than ever. 3 to 4 per hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Really looking forward to see what happens later tonight when that band moves north. BUF WRF variations all show a healthy band camp over the metro for roughly 6 hours before drifting into the northtowns. Even if it's a light rate no way that would only produce an inch or two. Maybe a metro surprise to end the event? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 I would wager yes. last few runs storm system slowing down which allows the winds to change direction without disrupting the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 14 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Really looking forward to see what happens later tonight when that band moves north. BUF WRF variations all show a healthy band camp over the metro for roughly 6 hours before drifting into the northtowns. Even if it's a light rate no way that would only produce an inch or two. Maybe a metro surprise to end the event? I hope that ends up happening. Enough to cover the grass at the very least, so it doesn't look so gray and depressing here. It looks like we'll definitely get a good accumulation Sunday night as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Amazing the forecasting issues they had off Ontario with this one. Saw a verification graphic posted this morning and thought it was pretty neat to compare to one of the initial forecasts from Wednesday morning. Overall they called the Erie band pretty darn close so far...Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 I wish I didn't pick up overtime today. Didn't expect that band to be this strong, would totally be chasing that thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2016 Author Share Posted December 10, 2016 Wind shift should be coming around early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Up to about 27.3" back home in Lakewood, a few miles due west of Jamestown. Unfortunately I'm not there, but it's been the largest storm for the Jamestown area in several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 LES Warning for oswego county... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 YES!!!!URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY1238 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2016NYZ010-110145-/O.EXB.KBUF.LE.Y.0020.161211T0400Z-161211T1400Z/NORTHERN ERIE-INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BUFFALO1238 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2016...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO9 AM EST SUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECTSNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO9 AM EST SUNDAY.* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY. GREATEST AMOUNTS CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE FROM SOUTH BUFFALO INTO THE SOUTHTOWNS.* TIMING...FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING.* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 8 INCHES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.* IMPACTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ON AREA ROADWAYS AND POOR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Picked up 2" in last 2-3 hours IMBY...a narrow streamer riding the SE shore on L Ontario extended through extreme no. Onondaga cty and so. Oswego cty. Was snowing hard at my house and a few miles south on RT 31 in Clay, just flurries. That pretty much doubles we have had to date from this event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Advisory posted for all of the NWS BGM counties in CNY for 3-6 of synoptic Sunday/Monday. Advisory for the E. Lake Ontario and Southern Tier counties from NWS BUF for 3-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 So BUF thinks only areas that will get advisory type snowfall will be in the S.tier, let's see how that pans out since most of the guidance have us getting between 4-7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 If I lived in south buffalo or even the metro I'd be very encouraged by the Cleveland radar right now. Robust multi bands setting up on a sw flow. Hopefully they'll consolidate into something nice for you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 2-3" from the next event as per BGM. The disappointments are already starting, lol. On top of this, it gets to 40-41F on Monday so whatever fell today and yesterday will be gone, lol. Its looking like a So.Tier Eastern NY Winter to which they truly deserve! Not looking forward to the disappointments but then again its the weather and I shouldn't expect anything less than chaos. Next weeks mid week system isn't looking to promising right now but that can change and the LE that everybody is talking about is a world away wrt details, wind and most of all moisture. The ECMWF continues to suggest the Arctic air at the heart of the trough will rotate eastward into Quebec, barely clipping northern NY state. Although we will remain cold, the deep Arctic cold is not likely to directly affect us. I don't believe this at all. I've seen some departures from normal some 20-30 degrees below normal. I don't quite get where there getting this from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: 2-3" from the next event as per BGM. The disappointments are already starting, lol. On top of this, it gets to 40-41F on Monday so whatever fell today and yesterday will be gone, lol. Its looking like a So.Tier Eastern NY Winter to which they truly deserve! Not looking forward to the disappointments but then again its the weather and I shouldn't expect anything less than chaos. Next weeks mid week system isn't looking to promising right now but that can change and the LE that everybody is talking about is a world away wrt details, wind and most of all moisture. The ECMWF continues to suggest the Arctic air at the heart of the trough will rotate eastward into Quebec, barely clipping northern NY state. Although we will remain cold, the deep Arctic cold is not likely to directly affect us. I don't believe this at all. I've seen some departures from normal some 20-30 degrees below normal. I don't quite get where there getting this from? Same place they got 1-2 feet of snow for us the past 2 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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