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NNE Winter Thread

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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klw

klw

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, mreaves said:

You may need to clear your cache, it comes up with the warning statement for me.

 

 

It is weird.  If I click on the link in your quote of my post I get the storm info, if I click on the link in mine it is the frost warning.

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adk

adk

Posted
Posted

I find that map quite misleading. BTV's other graphics say "expect at least this much" and paint a very different picture. Shows 7" for Stowe, 5" for BTV ....3" for Plattsburgh. Then their next image is 

To me if you are forecasting a range, THAT's the bottom. That's why people get mad at the NWS when stuff busts. They don't properly represent the bottom range. 

I think they also need to do a better job with the percents. There is a 50% chance Stowe sees more than 12" That's honestly pretty low. So how can you put a map up that says 12-18" when your computers are telling you there is only a 50% chance for 12" and a 15% chance for 18.  

 

 

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

GYX map shows 12-18" for all but the extreme NW part of their CWA - most uniform map I've ever seen from there.  GFS 06z has qpf back up to around 1.5".  That's about where it was 3 days ago, then it backed off to half that.  GYX 90/50/10% numbers for Farmington are 11/16/22 this morning.  Getting a major dump here from a storm that also pounds the MA is very uncommon.  I can't think of a storm that dumped 15"+ in both Farmington and NYC - closest might be Dec. 5-7, 2003, when Gotham had 14 and the foothills 20-30".

Hard to imagine how bad things were for firefighters Saturday.  My afternoon high was a big fat goose egg (spoiled by cheap high of 14 the evening before) with winds gusting into house-creaki9ng 30s.

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backedgeapproaching

backedgeapproaching

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, eyewall said:

I can back away from the ledge on this one it looks like. It would be nice to verify at least 10 inches here. As always we will see how shadowing or channeling plays out.

Yea, I think you can step back, literally every piece of guidance looks pretty good for the majority of VT, maybe the GFS is a HAIR too east, but that has been trending W the last 5 runs.

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Yea, I think you can step back, literally every piece of guidance looks pretty good for the majority of VT, maybe the GFS is a HAIR too east, but that has been trending W the last 5 runs.

 

Yeah, this coastal storm seems to have a lot more potential to affect areas farther back to the west than many have recently.  I guess there’s still time for things to change a bit, but the models haven’t yet suggested that eastern dive that PF has been worried about.  I was watching The Weather Channel, and they hadn’t updated the online versions of their projected snowfall maps yet, but you can see below in the current live map they’ve been showing that there’s some of that light pink starting to appear along the spine of the Greens and similar elevated areas well removed from the coast.  The mountains will often pull those sort of numbers out of storms anyway once the upslope is included in the totals, but to have fairly high potential on national outlet type maps is something we haven’t seen in a while.

 

13MAR17C.jpg

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I like 12-20" for the resort.

Probably a slug of 8-14" tomorrow afternoon/evening/night and then another 3-6" from 6am Wed to 6am Thur.

 

That seems quite reasonable PF – most importantly, as long as we get into at least that 1” range of liquid equivalent it should be a decent resurfacing for the resorts.

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backedgeapproaching

backedgeapproaching

Posted
Posted
55 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

Yeah, this coastal storm seems to have a lot more potential to affect areas farther back to the west than many have recently.  I guess there’s still time for things to change a bit, but the models haven’t yet suggested that eastern dive that PF has been worried about.  I was watching The Weather Channel, and they hadn’t updated the online versions of their projected snowfall maps yet, but you can see below in the current live map they’ve been showing that there’s some of that light pink starting to appear along the spine of the Greens and similar elevated areas well removed from the coast.  The mountains will often pull those sort of numbers out of storms anyway once the upslope is included in the totals, but to have fairly high potential on national outlet type maps is something we haven’t seen in a while.

 

13MAR17C.jpg

TWC just pushing all the chips in the middle for VT. Getting pretty stoked on this.

"sick day" upcoming on Wed or Thursday I think to get out and enjoy some of this.

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adk

adk

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I like 12-20" for the resort.

Probably a slug of 8-14" tomorrow afternoon/evening/night and then another 3-6" from 6am Wed to 6am Thur.

 

As we've talked about, I'm a little lower on the front end and a little higher on the 6pm wed -6am thurs.  

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Hitman

Hitman

Posted
Posted

This is just great from BTV. 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 248 AM EDT Monday...Have to admit very excited about short
term storm and potential for heavy snow...limited time spent on
days 4 through 7. However...after viewing the 00z GEM/Euro
solutions...trends are increasing for another potential storm on
Saturday into Sunday.

First...favorable upslope snow continues Weds Night into
Thursday with deep layer moisture and strong 925mb to 850mb flow
of 35 to 45 knots. See no reason why accumulating snowfall does
not continue overnight Weds into most of Thursday...especially
northern Dacks and northern Greens from Mt Allen to Mansfield to
Jay Peak. Have mention likely to cat pops with chc pops in the
valleys Wed Night into Thursday with additional accumulation of
2 to 4 inches...except localized higher amounts likely. Finding
the off switch to the snow machine given deep cyclonic flow and
rich moisture feed will be difficult.
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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, Hitman said:

This is just great from BTV. 


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 248 AM EDT Monday...Have to admit very excited about short
term storm and potential for heavy snow...limited time spent on
days 4 through 7. However...after viewing the 00z GEM/Euro
solutions...trends are increasing for another potential storm on
Saturday into Sunday.

First...favorable upslope snow continues Weds Night into
Thursday with deep layer moisture and strong 925mb to 850mb flow
of 35 to 45 knots. See no reason why accumulating snowfall does
not continue overnight Weds into most of Thursday...especially
northern Dacks and northern Greens from Mt Allen to Mansfield to
Jay Peak. Have mention likely to cat pops with chc pops in the
valleys Wed Night into Thursday with additional accumulation of
2 to 4 inches...except localized higher amounts likely. Finding
the off switch to the snow machine given deep cyclonic flow and
rich moisture feed will be difficult.

Yeah I will be curious as to what they say in the full afternoon update. 

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted

We have a big town voting day and town meeting tomorrow night.   I am friends with our town selectmen.   I spoke to them over the weekend and said Tuesday could be quite a storm.  They said we have many snowstorms and town people are use to it.   Voting starts at 11am.  Town meeting is at 8pm.  Lots of back roads and mountainous terrain.  Wonder if I should call them again and really stress this could be a dangerous storm.  We have had so many 5-10" storms over the past few years but nothing over a foot.  Finally looks like a track that could get us into the "deathzone" snows with high winds.  Our town has many elderly people.  Should I keep my mouth shut or stress this could be a particularly bad situation?  

Personally really excited for a track that will give us a real storm!

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted
Just now, mreaves said:

My Wunderground app had 21" for me between Tuesday and Wednesday and another 6" this coming Saturday and Sunday.

Yeah the Euro gives us another 6 or so with storm 2. I just can't wait to get this started and move to obs LOL.

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