dryslot Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Low was -2°F this am, Now 0°F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 My wife just alerted me to the fact that it was snowing, so I took a look at the radar and you can see a streamer forming right down the Winooski Valley as well as some smaller bands off to the north: I haven’t seen anything mentioned in the BTV NWS forecast discussion yet, but they’ll probably comment at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 Been snowing here since 9am but only a few tenths. Its that Arctic air very small flake stuff that almost looks like a mist. Visibility is very low but not snowing that hard. It looks like Siberia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Don't look at the Euro. It says game over on the big dog now.Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Sky has been full of snow all day, though none makes it to the ground in this dry and turbulent air. Drove to Augusta today and the two bank temps were 4 and 5 at 11:30, 5 and 6 at 3 PM. Doubt my temp has gone above 2 or 3, and winds still gusting 30+. My 1/3" from last evening's flurry is about gone. Only 0.01" LE, so not much to sublimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 BTV felt ok enough to issue an early winter storm watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Been snowing here since 9am but only a few tenths. Its that Arctic air very small flake stuff that almost looks like a mist. Visibility is very low but not snowing that hard. It looks like Siberia. Feels like Siberia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 12 minutes ago, eyewall said: BTV felt ok enough to issue an early winter storm watch. That seems odd. I also don't agree that "Overall, this has the potential to be most snow that the majority of the North Country has seen during a single event this season." That's in the NWS discussion and with one model out to sea and the GFS clearly moving eastward ...I dunno...seems like somebody had a few at the UVM game and went to work excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatGirlWhoSkis Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The long term Tues-Fri still sounds optimistic from them as of 2:38 pm today: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 As for this cold, brutally cold days have an upside even for skiers. It's a great day to relax by the fire with a good book and drink of choice. Nothin' wrong with that! Especially if it's Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toller65 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Was -14 here at Sugarloaf this morning, got up to -2 at 3 pm, and down to -8 now.Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatGirlWhoSkis Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 hours ago, ThatGirlWhoSkis said: The long term Tues-Fri still sounds optimistic from them as of 2:38 pm today: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 As for this cold, brutally cold days have an upside even for skiers. It's a great day to relax by the fire with a good book and drink of choice. Nothin' wrong with that! Especially if it's Saturday Whoops, never mind. I mean, relaxing by the fire w/ a book and a drink are still awesome but the outlook for Tues-Fri not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 hours ago, adk said: That seems odd. I also don't agree that "Overall, this has the potential to be most snow that the majority of the North Country has seen during a single event this season." That's in the NWS discussion and with one model out to sea and the GFS clearly moving eastward ...I dunno...seems like somebody had a few at the UVM game and went to work excited. As much as I love looking at the big model runs, never bought into it to the scale that its going to be a major snow event. The upper level low and mesoscale snow on NNW flow and Champlain Valley convergence could actually put BTV and western slopes into a pretty good spot...but for the most of the BTV CWA I think its a scraper type event with maybe Advisory snows over a 24 hour period. Some upslope spots could get warning criteria, likely Underhill side. I still do expect eastern ticks as this approaches. Maybe not in the next 24 hours...but in the final 24 hours, these things always seem to drift east and/or weaker with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Musings.. High today of 9F. Very impressive for March 11. Low was -3.6F which occurred about an hour after sunrise. Got about an 1" of snow from 2 squalls. One late yesterday afternoon and one overnight Saw the east trend on the models today. When was the last track of a major winter storm over say Boston to give us northern people a bullseye. Can't remember. We are long overdue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: As much as I love looking at the big model runs, never bought into it to the scale that its going to be a major snow event. The upper level low and mesoscale snow on NNW flow and Champlain Valley convergence could actually put BTV and western slopes into a pretty good spot...but for the most of the BTV CWA I think its a scraper type event with maybe Advisory snows over a 24 hour period. Some upslope spots could get warning criteria, likely Underhill side. I still do expect eastern ticks as this approaches. Maybe not in the next 24 hours...but in the final 24 hours, these things always seem to drift east and/or weaker with time. Not a good day in weather land. I have to admit, I'm pretty close to meltdown. Yesterday, I'm putting the wheels in motion to drive up to Warren Wednesday night. Went to bed last night with dreamy visions of snow at home up to the north country, and big ski days. Tonight, not so much. Tomorrow is another day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said: Musings.. High today of 9F. Very impressive for March 11. Low was -3.6F which occurred about an hour after sunrise. Got about an 1" of snow from 2 squalls. One late yesterday afternoon and one overnight Saw the east trend on the models today. When was the last track of a major winter storm over say Boston to give us northern people a bullseye. Can't remember. We are long overdue. It's been years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 This is just a frustrating hobby. Science is such that, we know a total eclipse of the sun will cross the US on August 21rst and can tell eclipse start time to a second at a given location. Yet a potential storm 2 days away is impossible to forecast. 3", 10", 14"? every models vastly different. Of course the atmosphere is fluid. Best to just know Tuesday will be a snowy day. Close the shades and open them up tomorrow. With daylight saving time models come in an hour later too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said: This is just a frustrating hobby. Science is such that, we know a total eclipse of the sun will cross the US on August 21rst and can tell eclipse start time to a second at a given location. Yet a potential storm 2 days away is impossible to forecast. 3", 10", 14"? every models vastly different. Of course the atmosphere is fluid. Best to just know Tuesday will be a snowy day. Close the shades and open them up tomorrow. With daylight saving time models come in an hour later too.... Its only hard given the degree of accuracy people expect within the lead time they expect. Frankly I just think anything greater than 24hours notice is worthless. Though not everybody shares my opinion. 12z GFS says "what you talking about willis" to the BTV WINTER DEATH STORM OF THE YEAR warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 36 minutes ago, adk said: Its only hard given the degree of accuracy people expect within the lead time they expect. Frankly I just think anything greater than 24hours notice is worthless. Though not everybody shares my opinion. 12z GFS says "what you talking about willis" to the BTV WINTER DEATH STORM OF THE YEAR warning. Well the last two Euro runs have a massive region wide double digit event but yeah the GFS is saying enjoy your fringe job. It does seem to be the easterly outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Pretty interesting how on the hillside where our house is, much of the snow is gone save for some thin cover and deeper patches. Go down the road a mile or two and lose 300' elevation and it's way different. Pack is easily 12" and most people's lawns are still covered. All those foggy nights and poor CAD took a toll higher up. It's the one thing I don't like about our elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Event totals: 0.6” Snow/0.03” L.E. I didn’t see any specific impetus noted for yesterday’s snow in the BTV NWS forecast discussion, so I’m considering it part of the arctic frontal passage. The weather has generally cleared out, so the totals above may be it for this event Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: 7.2 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 1.5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Now that the various wind chill advisory products have expired, the advisories associated with the potential midweek storm will likely be the most prominent feature on the BTV NWS advisory maps. So, I’ve added the current advisory and projected accumulations maps below. This event looks like it has the potential to be a bit more productive in this area with respect to accumulation than many of the recent coastal-based synoptic systems, with a general 12-18” indicated from the Greens eastward. WWUS41 KBTV 121923 WSWBTV URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Burlington VT 323 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017 NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-130900- /O.CON.KBTV.WS.A.0003.170314T1100Z-170316T0000Z/ Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton- Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle- Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille- Caledonia-Washington-Western Addison-Orange-Western Rutland- Windsor-Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison- Eastern Rutland- Including the cities of Massena, Malone, Plattsburgh, Star Lake, Saranac Lake, Tupper Lake, Dannemora, Lake Placid, Port Henry, Ticonderoga, Ogdensburg, Potsdam, Gouverneur, Alburgh, South Hero, St. Albans, Newport, Island Pond, Burlington, Johnson, Stowe, St. Johnsbury, Montpelier, Middlebury, Vergennes, Bradford, Randolph, Rutland, Springfield, White River Junction, Enosburg Falls, Richford, Underhill, Bristol, Ripton, East Wallingford, and Killington 323 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening. * Hazard Types...Heavy Snow. * Accumulations...Generally 6 to 12 inches across northern New York, and 8 to 14 inches across central and northern Vermont. * Maximum Snowfall Rate...1 to 2 inches per hour, mainly Tuesday afternoon through evening. * Timing...The snow is expected to develop Tuesday morning, and possibly become heavy at times Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. An extended period of steady light snow may continue through Wednesday. The Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning commutes are expected to be especially difficult. * Locations...Northern New York and Central and Northern Vermont * Impacts...Hazardous winter driving conditions due to snow covered roads, low visibility, and blowing and drifting snow. * Winds...North 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph, highest on Wednesday. * Temperatures...Lows 10 to 15 above. Highs in the lower 20s. * Visibilities...Down to one quarter mile or less at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant snow accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. Please stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, your local media, or go to www.weather.gov/Burlington for further updates on this weather situation. && $$ BANACOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 Eyewall...all of these runs have textbook Champlain Valley convergence. You will do fine. Don't worry about it. As the low level flow goes northerly it'll really pile up in the Champlain Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Eyewall...all of these runs have textbook Champlain Valley convergence. You will do fine. Don't worry about it. As the low level flow goes northerly it'll really pile up in the Champlain Valley. Yeah that was mentioned in the AFD and they mentioned that could takes above 14" if it pans out. That is very encouraging. That is what happened in the Feb system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Well if you go by the BTV maps they range from 3" for Burlington in the at least this much to 20" in the potential for this much. Most likely is 11" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I'm feeling a lot better today. Locked and loaded. Gonna drive up Wednesday afternoon. How we looking for upslope on the backside of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 Big fire at the building immediately adjacent to the Notchbrook General Store on Mountain Road/108. Sounded intense on the radio as the portables are patched into Lamoille County 911 Dispatch. Photos by friend M.Hitelman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatGirlWhoSkis Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Awful day to have to fight a fire w/ the sub zero windchill...hope everyone is all right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 0Z WRF has .98" qpf for the northern greens. Sounds pretty much right as the upper end of qpf for the main event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 In his morning broadcast, Roger Hill went with blanket total snowfall numbers of 1 to 2 feet for the valleys, and up to 30 inches for the mountains with upcoming winter storm (Winter Storm Stella). I’d assume he’s got the potential upslope portion of the storm included in there. The BTV NWS has gone with a general 12 to 18 inches in the Winter Storm Warning for the Greens eastward, and in the BTV NWS forecast discussion it’s noted that there would be additional upslope snow potential on Wednesday night into Thursday. Our point forecast at the house sums to 11-21 inches, with additional snow noted for Wednesday Night and Thursday. Overall it sounds like a general foot or so of snow in the area. I’ve added the latest BTV NWS advisories and projected accumulations maps below – there’s not actually too much to see on the advisories map because it’s just Winter Storm Warnings across the board. The projected accumulations map tops out in the 18 to 24-inch range shown in the red shading along the spine and other spots among the Green Mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I love that when you click on BTV's link for the WSW it has tomorrows map and then the text is for a May 2016 Frost Advisory. http://www.weather.gov/btv/headline1 Quote Location At least Likely Potential for >=0.1" >=1" >=2" >=4" >=6" >=8" >=12" >=18" Norwich, VT 9 15 21 100% 100% 100% 99% 96% 92% 72% 28% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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