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NNE Winter Thread


powderfreak

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6 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

I think it got a bit warmer than guidance had suggested.   What was the forecasted high, 46F?   Got to 57.8F!  Cirus totally cleared out this PM and that helped.  First bit of bare ground showing on steep south slope.  Deer are taking full advantage!

  https://video.nest.com/clip/175242d9df6d434eb7ca675ea6fe10b2.mp4

 

5 hours ago, bobbutts said:

This warmth has been under-forecast for sure.  I haven't been paying close attention, but I remember Saturday being 10+ above forecast too.

Models are really struggling with the mixing height over the snow cover. Now that is a known problem of hi-res models (like the HRRR) but I guess as global models become increasingly hi-res they are beginning to suffer too. Oddly, MOS has been completely out to lunch too even though it should have a "memory" of these conditions. 

Wow, I just grabbed the GYX archived GFS Bufkit sounding from 00z last night, it never mixed GYX out. Looking at our 00z sounding from tonight, I can see a residual mixed layer got to around 925 mb. If I took the 12z GFS (which I didn't have for my forecast last night but just roll with it) and mixed down the 925 mb temp to the surface. I would have gotten 53.5 degrees at GYX. We hit 54.8. I forecast 46 for LEW (the closest point forecast to GYX). 

And now I'm kicking myself for that poop emoji forecast I put out.

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15 hours ago, eekuasepinniW said:

I actually wanted to tap some trees this year, because I fear I may lose the opportunity soon.  Many of the large maples on my land are dying.  The ones that are left are growing in a steep and rocky area, thoroughly protected by deep snow and my ill-timed inability to walk on anything not flat and dry.

I've got a dozen or so maples 14-20" diameter within 20 feet of our road, probably enough for 2-3 gallons a season, but unless/until I can find an almost-free evaporator, it remains cheaper to buy our syrup.

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Wow, quite the quick melt on the west side in the Champlain Valley.

Still solid 10" or so here in Stowe.

As of 3pm when I left there was 27" on the ground at Barnes Camp.  That's a huge decrease from depths in the 40s but I do think the first foot was pretty much settling it out.

No idea why this image won't embed though.

http://i48.photobucket.com/albums/f221/stowe_scott/Weather 2016-2017/Feb_23_Barnes_Camp_27inches_zpsvmvnyvab.jpg

Feb_23_Barnes_Camp_27inches_zpsvmvnyvab.

Pretty sweet day of spring skiing and riding though.  I'm not going to lie, if we are going to do a thaw this is the way to do it.  Sunny days and great skiing.  Lots of smiles on the hill or should I say beach. 

The-FourRunner-Quad-services-over-2000-v

 

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15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I kid you not...I've only lost 3" in the past 2 days. Still a 16" pack here as of this evening. I couldn't believe it when I went out there with the yardstick and found ranges all between 15-17".

 

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Gender non specific stuff

Similar here.  I don't get it.

Our loses were almost immediate once the temp went above freezing last weekend but this past two day stretch hasn't done much.  Even the CoCoRAHS observer in Stowe only lost 1.5" in the torch yesterday and I'm about 2" down today.  So say 3.5" in the past 2 days.

The early week refreeze seems to have made this stuff bulletproof from 60F and full sunshine.  We have also refroze each night...it was 29F and rock solid when I left for work at 4:30am this morning.  That's a big part of it. 

I think if we get into a couple nights without a refreeze it'll go much faster.  Refreezing at night is crucial for snow preservation.  Takes a lot of energy just to loosen up those bonds each day.

 

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49 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

 

Similar here.  I don't get it.

Our loses were almost immediate once the temp went above freezing last weekend but this past two day stretch hasn't done much.  Even the CoCoRAHS observer in Stowe only lost 1.5" in the torch yesterday and I'm about 2" down today.  So say 3.5" in the past 2 days.

The early week refreeze seems to have made this stuff bulletproof from 60F and full sunshine.  We have also refroze each night...it was 29F and rock solid when I left for work at 4:30am this morning.  That's a big part of it. 

I think if we get into a couple nights without a refreeze it'll go much faster.  Refreezing at night is crucial for snow preservation.  Takes a lot of energy just to loosen up those bonds each day.

 

My pack is much less however this last part is basically the sleet layer from  2 earlier storms.  Sun baked it today but it is very, very durable.  Grassy areas just slowly opening up even under relentless sun.  We have refrozen at night and it does take till late morning to thaw out and start remelting.  Warm temps, higher dews should really speed up melting.   Glaciated old snow is a whole different animal than fluff stuff.  Here is a 15 second video of my south facing steep slope from 9am till sunset.  The kids were sledding a couple of days ago and the deer have been all over the area but even so 65F and sunny skies didn't melt much.  https://video.nest.com/clip/9e0db8395f344d488349161acb693d78.mp4

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

 

Similar here.  I don't get it.

Our loses were almost immediate once the temp went above freezing last weekend but this past two day stretch hasn't done much.  Even the CoCoRAHS observer in Stowe only lost 1.5" in the torch yesterday and I'm about 2" down today.  So say 3.5" in the past 2 days.

The early week refreeze seems to have made this stuff bulletproof from 60F and full sunshine.  We have also refroze each night...it was 29F and rock solid when I left for work at 4:30am this morning.  That's a big part of it. 

I think if we get into a couple nights without a refreeze it'll go much faster.  Refreezing at night is crucial for snow preservation.  Takes a lot of energy just to loosen up those bonds each day.

 

The bottom of the pack was already very dense. I assume the initial melt compacted the top layer of new snow and, like you said, the refreeze turned it into a block of ice. The pack is thick enough that the sun can't really "see through" it yet to the surface. So we melt a bit off the top and it gets saturated up into the pack or evaporates off the surface enabling the snow sfc to wetbulb down a bit. I'm on a north facing slope too so the angle of insolation is not as direct as say Gene's southern exposure. I still figured a 65F afternoon would knock off a good 4-5" though. 

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27 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The bottom of the pack was already very dense. I assume the initial melt compacted the top layer of new snow and, like you said, the refreeze turned it into a block of ice. The pack is thick enough that the sun can't really "see through" it yet to the surface. So we melt a bit off the top and it gets saturated up into the pack or evaporates off the surface enabling the snow sfc to wetbulb down a bit. I'm on a north facing slope too so the angle of insolation is not as direct as say Gene's southern exposure. I still figured a 65F afternoon would knock off a good 4-5" though. 

 

27 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The bottom of the pack was already very dense. I assume the initial melt compacted the top layer of new snow and, like you said, the refreeze turned it into a block of ice. The pack is thick enough that the sun can't really "see through" it yet to the surface. So we melt a bit off the top and it gets saturated up into the pack or evaporates off the surface enabling the snow sfc to wetbulb down a bit. I'm on a north facing slope too so the angle of insolation is not as direct as say Gene's southern exposure. I still figured a 65F afternoon would knock off a good 4-5" though. 

In Boccawen my fields are 50% melted out, meaning 50% with no snow.  They are slight slopes and facing NW.  They are melting like crazy, but they are all sun exposed.  Shady areas still have 1"+

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10 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

 

In Boccawen my fields are 50% melted out, meaning 50% with no snow.  They are slight slopes and facing NW.  They are melting like crazy, but they are all sun exposed.  Shady areas still have 1"+

Wow. Surprised you're down to that little. Both cocorahs guys up here are both over a foot.

2/24/2017  5:08 AM  NH-MR-45  Northfield 2.8 E 0.00 0.0 18.5 NH Merrimack
2/24/2017  7:00 AM  NH-BK-1  Tilton Northfield 3.3 NE 0.00 0.0 13.5 NH Belknap

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12 hours ago, powderfreak said:

 

Similar here.  I don't get it.

Our loses were almost immediate once the temp went above freezing last weekend but this past two day stretch hasn't done much.  Even the CoCoRAHS observer in Stowe only lost 1.5" in the torch yesterday and I'm about 2" down today.  So say 3.5" in the past 2 days.

The early week refreeze seems to have made this stuff bulletproof from 60F and full sunshine.  We have also refroze each night...it was 29F and rock solid when I left for work at 4:30am this morning.  That's a big part of it. 

I think if we get into a couple nights without a refreeze it'll go much faster.  Refreezing at night is crucial for snow preservation.  Takes a lot of energy just to loosen up those bonds each day.

 

I think the several small thaws and rains that occurred during the big snow stretch did a lot to consolidate the snowpack. I think Friday night-saturday will be the real killer. Unlikely to see a complete refreeze in all but the very highest terrain, full sun in the AM (east facing starts to bake) and then possibly an inch of rain. That should finish off the snow piles in BTV and take 6-12" off the stake. 

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I’ve added below the relevant BTV NWS forecast discussion for the upcoming snowfall potential tomorrow night.  Roger Hill’s thoughts in his WDEV broadcast this morning were a little more robust in the snowfall department, with mention of the potential for 3-5” across the higher elevations, and accumulation in all but the Champlain and Connecticut River Valleys.  The high elevation point forecast for Mt. Mansfield currently has 2-4” of snow in it, so a few inches at elevation seems like the general idea.

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

644 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

 

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

As of 428 AM EST Friday...Negative tilt mid-level trough and sfc bndry shift east of our region after 03Z Sunday, with strong low-level CAA and a wly wind shift following FROPA. Should see rain end as a period of wet snow or snow showers, especially across the higher terrain during Saturday night, with temperatures falling into the upr 20s to lower 30s by daybreak Sunday. Some anafrontal character to the frontal zone per NWP time-height cross sections, and as such, should see 1- 3" snowfall across the higher summits late Saturday night as vertical temperature profiles cool sufficiently to support snow as the p-type. Even in valley locations, may see precipitation end as isold/sct snow showers, but with little or no accumulation expected.

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Was surprised to see my home thermometer down to 32° this morning.  Frost on the cars and mud in the driveway firmed up.  At least most of the snow is off my solar panels now so I should generate a little electricity.  The driveway is roughly 60% clear.  If it were March instead of February, I would be happy.

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15 hours ago, powderfreak said:

 

The-FourRunner-Quad-services-over-2000-v

 

That's a great picture. I really like to ski Upper Goat but in late spring it can be a bit sketch so I jump in at that connect right below the little cliff on Liftline. Your photo shows that hazard area between Nosedive and Goat well, there is some good skiing in there right? You can pop in there from both Nosedive and Goat...I'm typically just following my son especially in the woods so never quite sure where I'm entering/exiting! I've always assumed some of the pics you take with boulder drops as background were shot in there...

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15 hours ago, dendrite said:

I kid you not...I've only lost 3" in the past 2 days. Still a 16" pack here as of this evening. I couldn't believe it when I went out there with the yardstick and found ranges all between 15-17".

Still 32" at the stake this morning, down 14" from a week ago, a pretty steady 2"/day with a couple 3s.  However, the modest amount of puddles/runoff suggests more consolidation than melt.  Last Saturday's core measured 9.71" SWE in a 42" pack, meaning the snow was 23% water.  I'm guessing there's still over 9" SWE and the % is close to 30.  I think "ripe" begins when it passes 40%, so the snow still has some sponge capability.

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54 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Still 32" at the stake this morning, down 14" from a week ago, a pretty steady 2"/day with a couple 3s.  However, the modest amount of puddles/runoff suggests more consolidation than melt.  Last Saturday's core measured 9.71" SWE in a 42" pack, meaning the snow was 23% water.  I'm guessing there's still over 9" SWE and the % is close to 30.  I think "ripe" begins when it passes 40%, so the snow still has some sponge capability.

That's remarkable, tamarack.  What a terrific stretch of winter for you.

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18 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said:

That's remarkable, tamarack.  What a terrific stretch of winter for you.

Getting a solid 10:1 dump in late Dec set the stage, then the 9-day snowblitz upped the ante.  Temps may grade out at C- or lower for the winter, but snow will be B or above even if we were to not see another flake.  The Farmington co-op recorded its first ever winter (of 124) with 2 storms cracking the 20"+ barrier.  Ironically, it's my 2nd, as 1/19-20 and 2/3-4 in 1961 reached that magnitude in NNJ.

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