alex Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Rockpile from my side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Our area wasn’t in the Winter Storm Watch from earlier today, but something must have changed in the thoughts of the BTV NWS for this upcoming event, because we’re under a Winter Storm Warning now. Updated maps and warning text are below: VTZ006-008-016>018-151100- /O.NEW.KBTV.WS.W.0002.170215T1200Z-170217T0000Z/ Lamoille-Washington-Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden- Eastern Addison- Including the cities of Johnson, Stowe, Montpelier, Enosburg Falls, Richford, Underhill, Bristol, and Ripton 318 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY... The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a Winter Storm Warning for snow...which is in effect from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 PM EST Thursday. * Locations...Western Slopes of Vermont. * Hazard Types...Snow. * Accumulations...6 to 12 inches of snow. * Maximum Snowfall Rate...up to 1 inch per hour...mainly Thursday evening through midnight. * Timing...Numerous snow showers and snow squalls will develop on Wednesday...and will transition into a light to moderate terrain focused snow on Wednesday Night into Thursday. * Impacts...Snow squalls will produce sudden changes in visibilities on Wednesday...along with a quick couple inches of snow in a short period of time...resulting in hazardous driving conditions. These conditions will continue overnight into Thursday. * Winds....South winds 5 to 15 mph on Wednesday...becoming north with gusts up to 25 mph on Wednesday night. * Temperatures...Highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s on Wednesday. Lows 16 to 21 Wednesday night. * Visibilities...below one half mile at times. Precautionary/Preparedness Actions... A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow are forecast that will make travel hazardous. Keep an extra flashlight...food...and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Please stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...Your local media...or Go to www.weather.gov/Burlington for further updates on this weather situation. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 No doubt that the higher summits are going to get smoked come Thursday afternoon. Another 12" easy. Ho-Hum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 High bust potential either way. A heavily blocked flow sounds good to me though Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Storm 24 hours away.... For my hood 18Z NAM .80" GFS .15". Hum... Snow depth at the snowstake is around 16-17". In actuality it is straight not crooked as it looks on the NEST wide angle lens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 The evening glow of icicles in the window: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 24 minutes ago, eyewall said: The evening glow of icicles in the window: Really nice shots. It's hard to beat the soft glow of a clear winter's evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Rockpile from my side Lol, you have your own little PF like picnic table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 14, 2017 Author Share Posted February 14, 2017 1 hour ago, eyewall said: High bust potential either way. A heavily blocked flow sounds good to me though Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk Yeah I'm not feeling this as much on the east side. Was thinking this could be good for like Williston type zone in the CPV. Good low level convergence on the east side of the valley up to the Spine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Yeah I'm not feeling this as much on the east side. Was thinking this could be good for like Williston type zone in the CPV. Good low level convergence on the east side of the valley up to the Spine.Yeah Williston might be a good spot.Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 14, 2017 Author Share Posted February 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, eyewall said: Yeah Williston might be a good spot. Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk Underhill and the west slopes haven't had nearly the snow we have on the east side so it's bound to crush them at some point. I think it'll be a good blocked flow event. Can see it easily on the meso model QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Underhill and the west slopes haven't had nearly the snow we have on the east side so it's bound to crush them at some point. I think it'll be a good blocked flow event. Can see it easily on the meso model QPF. That is true. I hope we can eek out 6 here Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Very light snow falling now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 1 hour ago, Lava Rock said: Lol, you have your own little PF like picnic table Haha yep, but it's in a very windy spot so doesn't get that much snow accumulation. I may have to move it to a sheltered spot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 3 hours ago, eyewall said: High bust potential either way. A heavily blocked flow sounds good to me though Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk ALY actually mentioned Froude in their disco today. Its honestly the first time i can remember them ever using that term. They usually just say some "upslope possible in the higher elevations" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Event totals: 18.2” Snow/0.93” L.E. We cleared out somewhat today and the snow finally shut off, so that marks the end of Winter Storm Orson and the above numbers are the final totals. Details from the 8:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 15.1 F Sky: Light Snow (1-5 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 18.5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 3 hours ago, powderfreak said: Underhill and the west slopes haven't had nearly the snow we have on the east side so it's bound to crush them at some point. I think it'll be a good blocked flow event. Can see it easily on the meso model QPF. Hey PF can you just briefly explain the process behind your comment... So you're saying the resort side will not see as good accumulations because the flow is heavily blocked? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 6 hours ago, PivotPoint said: Hey PF can you just briefly explain the process behind your comment... So you're saying the resort side will not see as good accumulations because the flow is heavily blocked? Thanks! Yes. That's it exactly. It isn't that common as most of the time the prevailing flow is west/nw. In those cases the summits and east (leeward side) do better than the west side. When the flow gets more N or even NNE the upslope snow doesn't get over the crest of the spine and falls between 1000ft and 3000ft on the west side. In extreme situations (Jan 2010) the snow falls all the way back in BTV. The Jan 2010 event saw like 30" in BTV and 6" at stowe... Looking at the outputs a little more closely - I tend to agree with PF that this is a western slope event. Bolton/Smuggs might be the big winner here. With winds due north Stowe/Smuggs/MRG don't do as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2017 Author Share Posted February 15, 2017 I say that though and we got 3-4" of fluff overnight last night... I don't know, the mountain hasn't been "losing" lately so its also hard to bet against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 We are coming in warm with a forecast high of 37. I think we bust here for at least today. I am thinking any real accums may have to wait for upslope phase if it is blocked.Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 1 hour ago, adk said: Yes. That's it exactly. It isn't that common as most of the time the prevailing flow is west/nw. In those cases the summits and east (leeward side) do better than the west side. When the flow gets more N or even NNE the upslope snow doesn't get over the crest of the spine and falls between 1000ft and 3000ft on the west side. In extreme situations (Jan 2010) the snow falls all the way back in BTV. The Jan 2010 event saw like 30" in BTV and 6" at stowe... Looking at the outputs a little more closely - I tend to agree with PF that this is a western slope event. Bolton/Smuggs might be the big winner here. With winds due north Stowe/Smuggs/MRG don't do as well. Great explanation.. Thank you! I knew that blocked and unblocked have different effects but did not know what drives them. Thanks again... on another note, really sad to hear about the guy and the tree well. I typically ride alone when I come to Stowe. Hard to find DC folks who want to ski! So this freaks me out a little.. Need to give those evergreens a wide berth.. Heres rooting for another foot by Friday morning when I roll into town. Hope all the pow isn't skied out on Thursday! -Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 2 hours ago, adk said: Yes. That's it exactly. It isn't that common as most of the time the prevailing flow is west/nw. In those cases the summits and east (leeward side) do better than the west side. When the flow gets more N or even NNE the upslope snow doesn't get over the crest of the spine and falls between 1000ft and 3000ft on the west side. In extreme situations (Jan 2010) the snow falls all the way back in BTV. The Jan 2010 event saw like 30" in BTV and 6" at stowe... Looking at the outputs a little more closely - I tend to agree with PF that this is a western slope event. Bolton/Smuggs might be the big winner here. With winds due north Stowe/Smuggs/MRG don't do as well. It would be interesting to see how we do. I found a paper describing upslope in the Whites and it seems that the rarer N direction is where we can do really well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, alex said: It would be interesting to see how we do. I found a paper describing upslope in the Whites and it seems that the rarer N direction is where we can do really well... and southeast. The Whites are a huge barrier for winds off the ocean. In good nor easter's there is a huge upslope enhancement from low level easterly onshore flow. Also, whites are shadowed on w/nw flow by Greens to some degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, adk said: and southeast. The Whites are a huge barrier for winds off the ocean. In good nor easter's there is a huge upslope enhancement from low level easterly onshore flow. Also, whites are shadowed on w/nw flow by Greens to some degree. I'd love to put the presidentials out on cape cod... I wonder how much snow they'd get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 44 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said: I'd love to put the presidentials out on cape cod... I wonder how much snow they'd get. Or the Cascades. Think big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Dumping here in St. J Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 I wasn’t sure whether or not this next storm was expected to have enough impact to call for a name, but it’s apparently reached that threshold and has earned the name Winter Storm Pluto. Updated advisory and projected accumulations maps from the BTV NWS are below. Projected accumulations don’t seem to have changed much in the BTV forecast area since the last map, but amounts over in New Hampshire have definitely been bumped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Ok.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 I chased to the south hero causeway! Amazing squallSent from my VS987 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Should be an interesting drive to Killington for us from Cape May NJ this evening. Looks like a 3-6/ 4-8" type deal? Glad we have 4 wheel drive and decent tires. Any insight would be appreciated. The kids (and myself) are excited about the conditions and the prospect of fresh snow tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.