eyewall Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 We have been cut back to 6-9 here due to expected shadowing. A shadow screw job is my biggest concern at this point in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 Been thinking 8-12" all along but I'd lean 8-9" as an exact total. 0.75" QPF or so is the expectation to be added to the mountain snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Good luck fellas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 I am thinking 6 will be the upper limit here if we get shadowed. I hope we get there Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 hour ago, eyewall said: We have been cut back to 6-9 here due to expected shadowing. A shadow screw job is my biggest concern at this point in the game. ALY cut back totals around Albany metro for the same reason. They were in the 12-18 zone, now 6-9 They also noted in their disco that the best lift occurs well below the DGZ resulting in some poor ratios. Though this was for immediate ALB metro, not sure if that translates up there near BTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 59 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said: ALY cut back totals around Albany metro for the same reason. They were in the 12-18 zone, now 6-9 They also noted in their disco that the best lift occurs well below the DGZ resulting in some poor ratios. Though this was for immediate ALB metro, not sure if that translates up there near BTV. I did not see mention of that for BTV but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 hour ago, backedgeapproaching said: ALY cut back totals around Albany metro for the same reason. They were in the 12-18 zone, now 6-9 They also noted in their disco that the best lift occurs well below the DGZ resulting in some poor ratios. Though this was for immediate ALB metro, not sure if that translates up there near BTV. Even without shadowing(which shouldn't be a huge deal for this area) 6-9 or 6-10 is a much more reasonable forecast region wide here in ENY(not just ALB metro) for a SWFE. I've rarely seen one produce more than that without coastal storm involvement. That said, I'm in the same boat as much of western New England, and am excited for any snow that falls these days. I can't wait to see pics and videos out of eastern areas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Pretty sad day on Winnipesaukee yesterday with 5 people going through the ice and only 2 coming back out. Blowing snow does a great job of hiding hazards on the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 10 minutes ago, Stash said: Even without shadowing(which shouldn't be a huge deal for this area) 6-9 or 6-10 is a much more reasonable forecast region wide here in ENY(not just ALB metro) for a SWFE. I've rarely seen one produce more than that without coastal storm involvement. That said, I'm in the same boat as much of western New England, and am excited for any snow that falls these days. I can't wait to see pics and videos out of eastern areas! Yea agree, don't think there was any guidance spitting out 12+ region wide. Even for my area, unless some of the wraparound NW flow stuff from the coastal hits, will be hard to make 12" I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 30 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said: Pretty sad day on Winnipesaukee yesterday with 5 people going through the ice and only 2 coming back out. Blowing snow does a great job of hiding hazards on the ice. Awful man. No matter how cold it is lake ice always scares the crap out of me. I still remember being stupid in college and we drove across Lake Champlain. I still am very thankful my Honda wasn't at the bottom of that lake with us in it. In news around here I had State and local police all over my yard last night and adjacent Recreation Path areas, woods, etc searching for someone who apparently robbed someone at gun point near Sushi Yoshi restaurant. State Police K-9 came and played with my dog but you could tell something serious happened. They weren't saying what (we found out this morning) except to say go inside and call us if you see anything. Full on search party probably 10-20 officers deep looking for suspect fleeing on foot. Saw officers from State police, Stowe PD, Morrisville PD and Lamoille County Sheriffs Department all here last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Special Weather Statement for bands rolling in. This is a good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Hey north country folks. Just wondering if there is any word on this Wednesday's event? My wife and I are taking our daughter and 4 of her friends up to Killington Wed for 5 days of riding and skiing. Looks like roads might be interesting given the current setup. And insight much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 30 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Awful man. No matter how cold it is lake ice always scares the crap out of me. I still remember being stupid in college and we drove across Lake Champlain. I still am very thankful my Honda wasn't at the bottom of that lake with us in it. In news around here I had State and local police all over my yard last night and adjacent Recreation Path areas, woods, etc searching for someone who apparently robbed someone at gun point near Sushi Yoshi restaurant. State Police K-9 came and played with my dog but you could tell something serious happened. They weren't saying what (we found out this morning) except to say go inside and call us if you see anything. Full on search party probably 10-20 officers deep looking for suspect fleeing on foot. Saw officers from State police, Stowe PD, Morrisville PD and Lamoille County Sheriffs Department all here last night. Wow, that's nuts. Hope they catch the guy. And yeah, ice is pretty scary. Several years back, our fire department was doing ice diving at the beach. Despite being in groups and in full dive gear, one of them became disoriented and trapped under the ice until he drowned. It really illustrated just how ridiculously dangerous icy bodies of water can be. The only time I go onto the ice is on Meredith bay during the fishing derby, because the ice there is usually about 20" thick and there are already several hundred people, cars, shacks, vendors, and helicopters on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 As eyewall noted, there’s a Special Weather Statement out for bands of heavy snow – interesting to see that embedded among the Winter Storm Warnings. Updated BTV NWS advisories and projected accumulations maps are below: Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Burlington VT 1021 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2017 NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001-002-005-006-008>012-017>019-121815- Northern St. Lawrence-Southeastern St. Lawrence-Western Essex-Western Clinton-Eastern Clinton-Northern Franklin-Southern Franklin-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Western Franklin-Grand Isle-Western Rutland-Western Addison-Washington-Lamoille-Eastern Rutland-Windsor-Eastern Chittenden-Western Chittenden-Eastern Addison-Orange- 1021 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2017 ...AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT CLINTON...FRANKLIN...ST. LAWRENCE...ESSEX...ORANGE...ADDISON...CHITTENDEN...SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...SOUTHWESTERN LAMOILLE...SOUTHERN GRAND ISLE...RUTLAND... WINDSOR AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES... ...Bands of moderate to heavy snow will develop across the North Country by late this morning... At 1016 AM EST...an area of moderate to heavy snow was along a line extending from 6 miles northwest of Ogdensburg to 9 miles northeast of Piercefield to NEAR Rogers Rock Campground to Ira to NEAR Townshend...and moving northeast at 20 mph. These bands of moderate to heavy snow will develop across northern New York and southern Vermont by 11 AM and expand into central Vermont...including the Champlain Valley by 1 PM. * Visibilities will drop quickly to less than a half mile in this area of heavy snow. * Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are possible in this area of heavy snow. Travel will quickly become difficult with snow covered and slippery roads, along with very poor visibility. LAT...LON 4331 7325 4353 7324 4363 7337 4359 7343 4380 7338 4374 7406 4380 7405 4392 7434 4397 7426 4412 7428 4405 7507 4441 7584 4477 7541 4478 7540 4501 7483 4500 7371 4461 7289 4390 7216 4357 7238 4323 7243 TIME...MOT...LOC 1516Z 203DEG 17KT 4477 7558 4429 7440 4382 7343 4351 7309 4308 7265 $$ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Burlington VT 313 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2017 NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-122200- /O.CON.KBTV.WS.W.0001.170212T1500Z-170214T0000Z/ Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton- Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle- Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille- Caledonia-Washington-Western Addison-Orange-Western Rutland- Windsor-Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison- Eastern Rutland- Including the cities of Massena, Malone, Plattsburgh, Star Lake, Saranac Lake, Tupper Lake, Dannemora, Lake Placid, Port Henry, Ticonderoga, Ogdensburg, Potsdam, Gouverneur, Alburgh, South Hero, St. Albans, Newport, Island Pond, Burlington, Johnson, Stowe, St. Johnsbury, Montpelier, Middlebury, Vergennes, Bradford, Randolph, Rutland, Springfield, White River Junction, Enosburg Falls, Richford, Underhill, Bristol, Ripton, East Wallingford, and Killington 313 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY... The National Weather Service in Burlington continues the Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow...from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST Monday. * Locations...Northern New York and Vermont. * Hazard Types...Snow...heavy at times. * Accumulations...8 to 12 inches of snow for eastern Vermont and northern New York. 6 to 9 inches of snow in the Champlain Valley. * Maximum Snowfall Rate...up to 1 inch per hour...mainly this evening through midnight. * Timing...Snow will spread into the region late this morning and afternoon. Snow will be heaviest later this afternoon through midnight before gradually abating on Monday. * Impacts...Snow covered roads and low visibilities due to falling and blowing snow will create hazardous travel conditions. * Winds...Southeast gusts to 35 mph across portions of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains this evening. North to northwest gusts to 40 mph from the Adirondacks east into Vermont on Monday. * Temperatures...Highs mainly in the 20s. Lows Around 20. * Visibilities...Less than one quarter mile at times. $$ JMG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 It is snowing now with vis droppingSent from my VS987 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 hour ago, eekuasepinniW said: Pretty sad day on Winnipesaukee yesterday with 5 people going through the ice and only 2 coming back out. Blowing snow does a great job of hiding hazards on the ice. That's terrible, eek. I can't imagine the sadness of the families and community. There are two men missing off Benson Landing down in Benson, VT. They were last seen sledding on Lake Champlain on Thursday evening. There's a lot of thoughts and prayers sentiments, but after two days and the circumstances of where they were riding, there's not a optimism that this will end with their safe recovery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Downslope disaster here with these SE winds gusting choking out the flakes. Growth, ratios are putrid. Going to need some banding to move through to overcome or a wind shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 20 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said: Downslope disaster here with these SE winds gusting choking out the flakes. Growth, ratios are putrid. Going to need some banding to move through to overcome or a wind shift. That's the tell-tale sign...very small flakes, almost like sand, with out very low visibility. Meso-models have quite the upslope and downslope couplet up and down the Greens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Moderate snow and VERY windy here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 It is cranking here at the moment with vis under 1/2 at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 Radar looks best in the BTV area...also have the lowest visibility at BTV with 1/2sm Moderate Snow. Lets get BTV to 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Snow got heavy fast. Didn't expect this till later. Gotta take my mom to Lincoln later, hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 17 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Radar looks best in the BTV area...also have the lowest visibility at BTV with 1/2sm Moderate Snow. Lets get BTV to 6". If we can sustain this we will get there. My 1/4 mile marker is the I-89 overpass. You can still see it but it is a little obscured. Call it 1/3 mile for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 53 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That's the tell-tale sign...very small flakes, almost like sand, with out very low visibility. Meso-models have quite the upslope and downslope couplet up and down the Greens. Yea, i try to ignore thise mesos and pretend it wont happen. VIS went way down with the heavier bands moving in now to 1/3- 1/4. Flakes size are still small, but man is it pouring sugar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sgottmann Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 20 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said: Yea, i try to ignore thise mesos and pretend it wont happen. VIS went way down with the heavier bands moving in now to 1/3- 1/4. Flakes size are still small, but man is it pouring sugar. Same here at Sugarbush. Been snowing lightly with sugar flakes for 2.5 hours. Just picked up in flake size and intensity. Eyeballing 1.5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 My estimate is about 3.5 inches so far. Furthest building is 1/4 mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Eyewall, you seem to have really good snow growth. Looking at Alex webcam he does too. I'm about 1/2 mile with moderate snow but small flakes so the vis looks lower than if I had larger flakes. We will take what we can get. Wish the secondary was 50 miles further west, look like VT and Western NH missed the comma head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, wxeyeNH said: Eyewall, you seem to have really good snow growth. Looking at Alex webcam he does too. I'm about 1/2 mile with moderate snow but small flakes so the vis looks lower than if I had larger flakes. We will take what we can get. Wish the secondary was 50 miles further west, look like VT and Western NH missed the comma head. Yeah so far we do. I hope this holds on. The winds are due south right now so we appear to be avoiding most downsloping here for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Still nuking here nicely! Radar looks good for now. I am wondering if we are getting help from the due southerly component for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Le the fun begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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