eyewall Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: BTV might have beaten Mansfield. Only 1.5" or so as of 10am at 3000ft. Probably end around 2" here. This was a good wind direction for BTV with low level northerly flow that's blocked. Yeah it was a nice consolation prize. I have my fingers crossed for Sunday/Mon. I hope we get something decent out of it. Anyway NWS here has gone with 1.5" so my 2" may be a bad measurement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 31 minutes ago, powderfreak said: BTV might have beaten Mansfield. Only 1.5" or so as of 10am at 3000ft. Probably end around 2" here. This was a good wind direction for BTV with low level northerly flow that's blocked. Yea, damn shame this thing didn't come closer to the coast with that perfect wind profile for BTV. Getting closer to the one eyed unicorn, AKA- a verified warning event in the SVT valleys. Need about .5" to get the 7" in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Yea, damn shame this thing didn't come closer to the coast with that perfect wind profile for BTV. Getting closer to the one eyed unicorn, AKA- a verified warning event in the SVT valleys. Need about .5" to get the 7" in 12 hours.Our last shot is sun/Mon at least for awhile. Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, eyewall said: Our last shot is sun/Mon at least for awhile. Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk 00Z Euro had a little something around D7 to keep any eye on. Obviously pretty long range and I didn't look at EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 12z Euro is very promising with a warning level event for the Sun/Mon storm. Obviously so much can still go wrong but it is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, eyewall said: 12z Euro is very promising with a warning level event for the Sun/Mon storm. Obviously so much can still go wrong but it is on the table. Eyewall. One of these are going to get us! Light snow here today. 1 mile vis stuff. I'm up to 5" which is not bad. Glad you have at least got to see some nice snow squalls this season. I doubt any synoptic stuff is ever as heavy as what you experienced at Bolton Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 27 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Eyewall. One of these are going to get us! Light snow here today. 1 mile vis stuff. I'm up to 5" which is not bad. Glad you have at least got to see some nice snow squalls this season. I doubt any synoptic stuff is ever as heavy as what you experienced at Bolton Valley. Yeah snow squalls are always my favorite and best shot at awesome low vis scenes. I would say even more so than synoptic most times here. Either way keep your fingers crossed. PF's picnic tables may be buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 42 minutes ago, eyewall said: 12z Euro is very promising with a warning level event for the Sun/Mon storm. Obviously so much can still go wrong but it is on the table. could be very interesting, GFS and Euro look good, CMC is out alone again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Calling it at 7.4" Nothing like the SNE snowbelt mecca towns over in CT and MA, but a win considering I was expecting an inch a few days ago. First time all season I would use the term "deep winter" around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Afternoon AFD is promising: s of 254 PM EST Thursday...Potential for significant snow storm late Sunday through Monday night as models continue to indicate deepening 500mb trough with closed low pressure reflected at the surface. Expect this trough to be digging across the western Great Lakes early Sunday with dry conditions over the North Country. As the trough traverses across the Great Lakes, it starts to become negatively tilted by late Sunday. Heading into Sunday night, the associated surface low strengthens dramatically. Both GFS and ECMWF indicate bombogenesis from 12Z Sunday to 12Z Monday when the surface low reaches the Cape Cod area. The surface low will continue eastward, leaving NW flow and upslope snow showers across the North Country into Monday night. GFS indicates conveyor belt of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico with PWATS around half an inch and SW oriented 850 mb jet transporting moisture from the Atlantic. Strong low level deformation expect Sunday evening-night and strong low level jet as low strengths providing lift. While I believe the QPF may be overdone, still expect moderate to heavy snow during this period as BUFKIT times series showing concentrated period of lift/omega in strong warm air/ThetaE advection/ridging. With signals of potential for snow squalls, GFS showing favorable upper level jet dynamics for divergence and 500mb diffluence Sunday night into Monday morning, have included +SN in forecast. For the second run of the GFS, colder solution is in line with ECMWF meaning snow event, as opposed to wintry mix. Strong winds ahead and behind low could lead to blowing snow through Monday. Still some uncertainty with exact track of low and where/when it strengthens dramatically which will determine how much snow will affect the North Country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 hours ago, eyewall said: GFS indicates conveyor belt of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico with PWATS around half an inch and SW oriented 850 mb jet transporting moisture from the Atlantic. Strong low level deformation expect Sunday evening-night and strong low level jet as low strengths providing lift. While I believe the QPF may be overdone, still expect moderate to heavy snow during this period as BUFKIT times series showing concentrated period of lift/omega in strong warm air/ThetaE advection/ridging. With signals of potential for snow squalls, GFS showing favorable upper level jet dynamics for divergence and 500mb diffluence Sunday night into Monday morning, have included +SN in forecast. What a packed discussion. That's a college seminar right there. Great to see this kind of scientific dialogue presented to the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 9, 2017 Author Share Posted February 9, 2017 Massive 10-16" Winter Storm Warning from Gray NWS. I haven't been paying that close attention outside of the SNE areas but this is a LOT of of the CWA in 10-16" range from Gray. Awesome. MEZ018-023-NHZ003>015-100000- /O.CON.KGYX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-170210T0000Z/ Interior York-Coastal York-Northern Grafton-Northern Carroll- Southern Grafton-Southern Carroll-Sullivan-Merrimack-Belknap- Strafford-Cheshire-Eastern Hillsborough-Interior Rockingham- Coastal Rockingham-Western And Central Hillsborough- Including the cities of Hollis, Alfred, Lebanon, Sanford, Goodwins Mills, Buxton, Limington, Berwick, Biddeford, Saco, Old Orchard Beach, Kittery, Bethlehem, Lincoln, Littleton, Sugar Hill, Thornton, Waterville Valley, Woodstock, Jackson, North Conway, Albany, Conway, Chatham, Crawford Notch, Lyme, Ashland, Ellsworth, Holderness, Plymouth, Rumney, Wakefield, Bridgewater, Brookfield, Ossipee, Tuftonboro, Wolfeboro, Moultonborough, Claremont, Cornish, Unity, Croydon, Goshen, Grantham, Lempster, Newport, Charlestown, Boscawen, Canterbury, Concord, Dunbarton, Loudon, Hooksett, Laconia, Gilford, Meredith, Barrington, Rochester, Dover, Rollinsford, Somersworth, Durham, Madbury, Gilsum, Keene, Marlow, Sullivan, Surry, Jaffrey, Manchester, Pelham, Nashua, Salem, Atkinson, Newton, Plaistow, Chester, Derry, Hampstead, Exeter, Greenland, Portsmouth, Rye, Hampton, Hampton Falls, North Hampton, Seabrook, Amherst, Milford, Mont Vernon, Goffstown, Peterborough, Sharon, and Weare 259 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * HAZARD TYPES...Snow. * Accumulations...Snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches. * TIMING...Snow heavy at times, tapering to flurries by early evening. * IMPACTS...Snow covered roads and blowing and drifting snow will lead to hazardous travel conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 9, 2017 Author Share Posted February 9, 2017 Nice liquid addition to the snowpack the past couple days...not huge snows and it did ruin the surface on the ungroomed terrain and backcountry. But the snowpack is very stout and the added liquid just makes it more solid. I had 29" at 1,500ft this afternoon that was VERY solid. Keep building it up and if we were to say get another foot of dense snow this would get pretty insane on the hill for snow depth. A 0.80" increase in snowpack liquid over the past 24 hours with pretty much no change in depth. It just gets more solid and hearty. Had around 2" today at 3,000ft....and it seemed decently dense which would make sense with 0.20" liquid at the COOP. Probably 10:1 ratios and shows why those Kuchara snow maps can be a bit misleading. The 10:1 ratio maps are the way to go. Daily Hydrometeorological Data National Weather Service Burlington VT 616 PM EST WED FEB 8 2017 Station Precip Temperature Present Snow 24 Hrs Max Min Cur Weather New Total SWE ...Vermont... Mount Mansfield 0.60 34 9 22 Cloudy T 79 Daily Hydrometeorological Data National Weather Service Burlington VT 632 PM EST THU FEB 9 2017 Station Precip Temperature Present Snow 24 Hrs Max Min Cur Weather New Total SWE ...Vermont... Mount Mansfield 0.20 22 -9 -9 1.2 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Just had a series of top-shelf gusts. Actually had to get up and make sure the greenhouse and magnolia shed were still there. 8.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Event totals: 2.0” Snow/0.23” L.E. Snowfall ended earlier today, so numbers above represent the totals for Winter Storm Niko at our site. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.6 inches New Liquid: 0.19 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 8.4 Snow Density: 11.9% H2O Temperature: 18.3 F Sky: Partly cloudy Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Eyewall-is Sunday night, the night? Charging up the drone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Eyewall-is Sunday night, the night? Charging up the drone?It could be but there is still room for it to slip away. Still too much that can go wrong. I don't want to set myself up for a big let down but yes it is a real chance.Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Since they’re focused on the temperatures, the BTV NWS isn’t really saying anything in their discussion about the snow that’s falling right now, but we’re getting accumulation in the Waterbury area. This seems to be well ahead of the upcoming Clipper system, so for now I’m putting it down as “moist northwest flow” based on the radar: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1.4" new, 0.06 melted. This is a best estimate taken from several measurements in the yard, the driveway, and on the pond. The snow was too light and the wind was too strong for the snow to accumulate on the boards. Thank you, J.Spin, for the suggestions on measurement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 26 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said: 1.4" new, 0.06 melted. This is a best estimate taken from several measurements in the yard, the driveway, and on the pond. The snow was too light and the wind was too strong for the snow to accumulate on the boards. Thank you, J.Spin, for the suggestions on measurement. No problem, glad you were able to get some numbers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 We got 3.5 yesterday to go along with 3 inches from the one before that. I ran into a couple of small spots of heavy snow between Bradford and St. Johnsbury on the drive this morning. It was combining with blowing snow to cover one lane of the highway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 hour ago, eyewall said: It could be but there is still room for it to slip away. Still too much that can go wrong. I don't want to set myself up for a big let down but yes it is a real chance. Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk I'm praying for you, but I hear you. no whammies. I was surprised to see 90% pop in the NWS forecast yesterday which is about as high as I can recall this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 12:30 and only 8.8 degrees... pretty brutal. low of -1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Damn...LCI was 12F at noon and I've been hovering between 11-12F. Had -1F here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Welcome to C/NNE winter... 9.5F at 1:30pm not bad... What a great pattern. Light snow coming up. Bigger storm on Sunday. Looks like another congrads to Maine as yet again VT miss out... but wait...eye candy... Jeez!!!! Look at the new 12Z Euro. 6 days away. If this ever verified. Eyewall your relocation to Vermont would finally be rewarded!! Burlington's snow drought would finally come to a smashing end. Wed to Thur a bombing low comes up the coast to a track over Boston to over Portland. 962mb over Portland. What is that. Cat 3? That's the track we need for a big C/NNE storm. It won't happen but wow if it did... Edit...does anyone know what the lowest pressure of a cyclone ever was on a coast hugging track like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Given the amount of blowing snow I can see from here, I assume people in Wolfeboro are having to evacuate their homes through second floor windows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Hit -6F here. Amazing deep blue sky against fresh snow is definitely FTW. What a frikin' weenie Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 I just got the alert that a Winter Storm Watch went up from the BTV NWS – the watch text suggests the potential for a general 6 to 10 inches of snow from Sunday in Monday. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Burlington VT 225 PM EST Fri Feb 10 2017 NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-111000- /O.NEW.KBTV.WS.A.0001.170212T1200Z-170214T0000Z/ Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton- Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle- Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille- Caledonia-Washington-Western Addison-Orange-Western Rutland- Windsor-Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison- Eastern Rutland- Including the cities of Massena, Malone, Plattsburgh, Star Lake, Saranac Lake, Tupper Lake, Dannemora, Lake Placid, Port Henry, Ticonderoga, Ogdensburg, Potsdam, Gouverneur, Alburgh, South Hero, St. Albans, Newport, Island Pond, Burlington, Johnson, Stowe, St. Johnsbury, Montpelier, Middlebury, Vergennes, Bradford, Randolph, Rutland, Springfield, White River Junction, Enosburg Falls, Richford, Underhill, Bristol, Ripton, East Wallingford, and Killington 225 PM EST Fri Feb 10 2017 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a Winter Storm Watch for snow...which is in effect from Sunday morning through Monday evening. * Locations...Northern New York and Vermont...including the Saint Lawrence and Champlain Valleys...Adirondacks...Green Mountains...Northeast Kingdom and western Connecticut Valley of Vermont. * Hazard Types...Snow...heavy at times. * Accumulations...6 to 10 inches of snow. * Maximum Snowfall Rate...up to 1 inch per hour...mainly Sunday evening into early Monday morning. * Timing...Snow will spread Northeast into Northern New York by late Sunday morning...continuing into Vermont during midday Sunday. * Impacts...Snow covered roads and low visibilities will create hazardous travel conditions. * Winds...Southeast 5 to 15 mph on Sunday...shifting Northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph on Monday. * Temperatures...Highs on Sunday and Monday in the 20s to low 30s. Lows in the teens to low 20s Sunday night. * Visibilities...Less than one mile at times in heavy snow and blowing snow. Precautionary/Preparedness Actions... A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant snow...sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. Please stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...Your local media...or Go to www.weather.gov/Burlington for further updates on this weather situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 Jeez they didn't waste any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Not sure how long its been online, but I noticed the Rangeley AWOS is online....K8B0. Might be old news but I havent noticed it before on mesowest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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