NNE Winter Thread

[powderfreak]

9 hours ago, adk said:

Until about 90 minutes ago, the difference was zero to winter. 

Took a little exploration in underhill too.  WAY less snow on the west side of mansfield than the east. The Froude numbers for these events really have favored the spine and eastern sides. Really noticeable and a little surprising. 

My buddy who lives at 1500ft on Camels Hump came to Stowe today but he's a MRG/SB pass holder due to them being closer.  He was blown away with the lower mountain snowpack.  

I've spent time at his house and he lives at the same elevation as the Stowe parking lots but said he has maybe 6" on the ground...not 18-19" that's here.  He said above 3000ft it seemed very similar to Sugarbush, everything buried so really hard to tell.  But below that 3000ft level he said the snow on Mansfield east is really impressive.  He was like don't go thinking 18" at 1500ft is what everyone has.  You can ski the low angle woods on the lower mountain with no problem while he said even at MRG on Friday he wouldn't do the woods below mid-mtn even with the care they take.

Guess the unblocked flow really helped us out these last couple weeks.

[adk]

Looks like another pocket of moisture is moving in from the ADK.  Should see the spine light up again for a bit and then again as the temps drop and the west winds squeeze some of this moisture out of the air. 

[J.Spin]

Here’s the north to south listing of available snowfall totals thus far from the Vermont ski areas for Winter Storm Caly using 24-hour accumulations supplemented with specific text reports.  I’m sure there are some differences are due to those resorts that have made an afternoon update vs. those that haven’t.

 

Jay Peak: 11”

Burke: 3”

Smuggler’s Notch: 5”

Stowe: 5”

Bolton Valley: 3”

Mad River Glen: 5”

Sugarbush: 8”

Killington: 5”

Okemo: 8”

Bromley: 5”

Magic Mountain: 6”

Stratton: 10”

Mount Snow: 10”

[J.Spin]

10 minutes ago, adk said:

Looks like another pocket of moisture is moving in from the ADK.  Should see the spine light up again for a bit and then again as the temps drop and the west winds squeeze some of this moisture out of the air. 

 

I was just going to comment on that – the spine just disappeared amidst the next impulse.  You can see it coming into the area on the radar:

 

[powderfreak]

31 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

Here’s the north to south listing of available snowfall totals thus far from the Vermont ski areas for Winter Storm Caly using 24-hour accumulations supplemented with specific text reports.  I’m sure there are some differences are due to those resorts that have made an afternoon update vs. those that haven’t.

 

Jay Peak: 11”

Burke: 3”

Smuggler’s Notch: 5”

Stowe: 5”

Bolton Valley: 3”

Mad River Glen: 5”

Sugarbush: 8”

Killington: 5”

Okemo: 8”

Bromley: 5”

Magic Mountain: 6”

Stratton: 10”

Mount Snow: 10”

I just saw Jay Peak showing 9-11" today.  Jesus.  How the heck did this little system bring 11" up there?  Time for a road trip.  They're going to beat everyone else while being the furthest way from the best lift lol.

[borderwx]

Nice  surprise this morning, woke up to 5", another 1/2" in the AM daylight, 8-9" now on the ground here. 

We were at Craftsbury Saturday to get our yearly pass, lots of smiles and skiers, they are already over 25k and everyone has fingers and toes crossed.

 

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, borderwx said:

Nice  surprise this morning, woke up to 5", another 1/2" in the AM daylight, 8-9" now on the ground here. 

We were at Craftsbury Saturday to get our yearly pass, lots of smiles and skiers, they are already over 25k and everyone has fingers and toes crossed.

 

It did look like there was a good band rolling north and intensified across the northern tier of VT before lifting into Canada.  I saw an 8" report out of Lyndonville, which is a very solid event.

[powderfreak]

Some photos of my buddy today.  I still think the lower elevation snowpack is something pretty special right now...low high elevation I guess I should say.

This photo is from 2,500ft...

 

And then this is 500ft lower at around 2,000ft.

[Lava Rock]

Ugh. Seeing periods of rain on Sunday. Really?

[Hitman]

53 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Ugh. Seeing periods of rain on Sunday. Really?

Yeah, saw that?  Thoughts?

[powderfreak]

This is looking promising all the sudden...

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 3.9” Snow/0.40” L.E.

 

The snowfall has stayed right in there at 10% density throughout the day today, so it’s been very consistent in that regard.  There’s a bit more snow falling out there now, so I’ll have some additional accumulation to report in the next update.

 

Details from the 8:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.6 inches

New Liquid: 0.06 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: 34.2 F

Sky: Mostly Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 6.0 inches

[mreaves]

I think we ended up just over 3". We did an addition this summer and the new deck isn't big enough for the table that I used for measuring in the past so I don't really have a good spot to get a measurement. Anyway, there was enough for me to brush off the snowblower for the first time this year. And we just had some of the same graupeley, convective type stuff roll through as well. 

[J.Spin]

29 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This is looking promising all the sudden...

 

Yeah, on the wider view it looks like there’s some nice moisture upstream; hopefully we can pick up a bit of it:

 

[powderfreak]

The 2.5 degree scan is showing a moisture train running over Mansfield.. fun stuff even in town.

 

[eyewall]

Solid burst of snow ongoing here and adding a little accumulation.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 5.4” Snow/0.52” L.E.

 

Last night’s back side precipitation was enough to push the liquid from Winter Storm Caly past a half inch.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.12 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 12.5

Snow Density: 8.0% H2O

Temperature: 26.6 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 7.5 inches

 

Next in line appear to be some smaller systems and fronts, with the first one expected to affect the area tonight:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

629 AM EST Tue Dec 13 2016

 

.SYNOPSIS...

Light snow is expected tonight with a dusting to several inches of accumulation...especially in the mountains. A series of arctic fronts will produce occasional snow showers and snow squalls on Wednesday into Thursday...with several inches of snow accumulation expected.

[alex]

2" overnight, adding to yesterday's 6

[powderfreak]

Picked up 1.7" overnight in those squalls getting the storm total to a little over 5".

[ono]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Picked up 1.7" overnight in those squalls getting the storm total to a little over 5".

on the mountain, or in town? edit: probably can figure this one out myself.

[klw]

4.8 inches total for me yesterday.  Took over 3 hours to dig out the driveway last night.  I have got to learn how to gas up and use the snowblowers this weekend!  Only a trace last night.  

 

I have now gotten over half of last season's total snow.

[J.Spin]

On ‎12‎/‎12‎/‎2016 at 10:14 AM, backedgeapproaching said:

Its seems SNE peeps were getting use to out snowing WSNE,CNE, NNE--some angst in some of those threads.

 

I think that some early ECMWF prognostications of a very large wintry event down south followed by the continual diminishment to a more realistic forecast and result is what irked some folks.

 

Most people seem to get it, but if a spot averages only 5 to 10 inches of snow for the entire month of December (with probably less than half of that in the first half of the month) how in the world is it typically going to be snow-covered and wintry?  Averages like that mean a few small systems, or a modest storm or two over the course of the entire month.  And, as if even getting the storms wasn’t enough of a roll of the dice to begin with, if you want to actually maintain snow on the ground, it probably requires continuous below average temperatures.

 

I get it that the snowfall averages don’t tell the whole story and there can be standout Decembers in spots like that with maybe 20 or even 30 inches of snow, but if that volatility exists, that really just makes the situation worse.  If really big Decembers ever happen, then the bulk of Decembers are actually going to have somewhere less than that 5 to 10 inches of snowfall.  If a site with a 10-inch average for December snowfall pulls off a 30-inch December (reasonably snowy, but not outrageous) then that means there have to be four additional 5-inch (almost nothing) Decembers to produce that 10-inch average.  There’s no going below zero with respect to monthly snowfall, so if you live in a spot that ever gets these types of big months that vastly exceed the average, you should basically be expecting most of your months to be well below whatever your average is.

 

Now I don’t actually know the S.D. on snowfall numbers for the SNE sites, but we’ve talked before on the forum about how the volatility in most spots is more than it is up north.  Unless the climate really has changed dramatically in recent years and snowfall averages in SNE have risen substantially (as in season snowfall means of 100”+), I’m not sure what people are expecting.

[tamarack]

Now I don’t actually know the S.D. on snowfall numbers for the SNE sites, but we’ve talked before on the forum about how the volatility in most spots is more than it is up north. 

And even farther north there's plenty of variability, as shown by my DJFM numbers for 18 winters.  First number is mean snowfall, 2nd is SD, 3rd is CV:

DEC....18.91"....12.24"....65%

JAN....19.43"......8.44"....43%

FEB....22.04"....11.74"....53%

MAR....16.72"....13.56"....81%

Winter...86.98"...31.51"...36%

January is the odd one, and would be even more odd if just 1999-2012 were considered.  Nine of those 14 years the January snowfall was in the range of 22.6" to 27.5", and the mean/SC/CV numbers for that span are:  20.59"; 6.00"; 29% - one does not expect a lower CV for a single month than for the winter total.  Even now, after having 5.7"; 5.1"; 36.8", and 13.9" for 2013-16, the median (22.75") is 16% higher than the mean.

March, not surprisingly, is the real month of extremes, having recorded snowfalls of 0.6" in 2010 and 55.5" in 2001.

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, ono said:

on the mountain, or in town? edit: probably can figure this one out myself.

At home.  3" High Road plot.

It nuked for about 60-90 minutes in those squalls. I posted that radar image last night and we seemed to be right in the moisture train from north of BTV through Mansfield and into Stowe.

[wxeyeNH]

Just playing catchup.   Wow some cold coming in.  Then the cutter.  Just reading the SNE thread.  Torch to the Canadian boarder  blah, blah, blah.  Not in my CAD refrigerator and not with such a cold arctic high.  Greens may torch but I'll struggle and stay cold.  Always seems to work that way.  After a good thump of snow I'll slowly rise with the whole kitchen sink.  Either staying below freezing or rising a bit above at the end but certainly no torch.  Usually the  warmest air right after fropa. Yesterday's snow is quite durable. Crappy snow growth resulted in a dense snowpack.    Will be interesting but expecting a net gain in snow.

[eyewall]

It killed me not to be able to ski as I snuck out on a break from work but the shooting conditions were even better today at the Notch:

[powderfreak]

Was already approaching an inch of new snow at the base when I arrived from the first round of squalls.  Now the second is building in and its started to dump huge dendrites again.

 

As of an hour ago (maybe another half inch since then)...might be able to pull a 2-spot at the base when this is all done.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 1.3” Snow/0.10” L.E.

 

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Was already approaching an inch of new snow at the base when I arrived from the first round of squalls.  Now the second is building in and its started to dump huge dendrites again.

 

I encountered a similar situation at the house this morning – 1.3” on the boards and some big flakes up to ~15 mm were coming down.  There were another couple of tenths of an inch down as well after clearing the boards.  I’m attributing this event to the cold front coming through as well as some LES, since it looks like that band from Lake Ontario is aimed right in our direction and is potentially helping out a bit.  The BTV NWS mentions the series of cold fronts we’ve got coming into the area, so if there are obvious breaks between them then I’ll separate them into unique events.  If not, I’ll keep them combined as a single event.

 

I was actually surprised that there was a tenth of an inch of liquid in the stack this morning, so I don’t think the flakes were quite as large as what I saw through the entirety of the accumulation.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.3 inches

New Liquid: 0.10 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 13.0

Snow Density: 7.7% H2O

Temperature: 30.9 F

Sky: Snow (2-15 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches

 

[eyewall]

Look like we had just under an inch of styrofoam overnight with a burst. I am interested to see how these squalls play out along with Champlain Effect snow in this area. 

[ono]

36 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Look like we had just under an inch of styrofoam overnight with a burst. I am interested to see how these squalls play out along with Champlain Effect snow in this area. 

the local Champlain effect can be pretty cool last year or the year before (?)... light snow down by old north end flats, and then increases as you travel uphill into a sustained moderate clip.  fun localized stuff.