NNE Winter Thread

[ono]

48 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

I’d say thaws are already covered in the data – they’re part of the snowpack numbers.  Were it not for the thaws we had this December, the snowpack probably wouldn’t have fallen much behind average.  Low snowpack has to come either from low snowfall (more appropriately low liquid equivalent in frozen precipitation) or loss of snowfall, and I think the snowpack number hits on both of those.

 

I couldn’t give credit to this past December for lack of thaws anyway though, because we definitely had thaws, multiple thaws.  You can see the two most prominent ones in red in the NOHRSC plot of December data from our site below.  Those red spikes correlate with two prominent drops in the snowpack depth (light blue line and light blue squares).  I’m not sure about that drop in snowpack depth around the 9th – 10th of the month – it didn’t get a snow melt rate.  Looking in my notes I don’t see any mention of mixed precipitation, so that could just be settling of fluffy snow over time.

 

 

I still say we’re looking at a C- at best for December at our site and local environs, I just don’t see how I could objectively give it an above average grade.  I think some of the higher elevations could certainly be in line for an average or above average grade for December, but I’d need to see the data.

Ran the Mansfield stake data a little while ago (just basic stats, reformatted hard drive a few days ago so working on getting things back up and running). IIRC the stake data had something running in the high 80's percentile wise mid-month, then dropped into the mid-70's for total depth. Snow depth days for the month of December was running somewhere in the mid-70's as well (again, IIRC). The liquid in the snowpack was high by the collective accounts (didn't have time to run the numbers here, just brought that data in recently- needs clean up).  

Around New Years eve skied like a really good December in the backcountry. It felt like a month later, where you could just rip (maybe nearsightedness in my memory). Though the deep streambeds open in places spoke to the rain that happened. Overall, I'd say it was above average up high for December- not by a huge margin, but good. The regularly flip to light rainers was a curveball. 

 

Since then, it's been downward. January may be a tough month, but personal anectdote- January is usually a crappy month. Good Decembers get you buzzed, and Feb/March snow is usually more consistent. January seems to form bleak memories in general over the past decade or so.

[powderfreak]

At least it's snowing this morning.  The snowpack resembles sidewalk this morning both in color and firmness.

Huge 0.25" at the base snow board at 5:45am.

I found myself laughing just being excited for flakes when I think start looking at 100" in a few days out west.

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

At least it's snowing this morning.  The snowpack resembles sidewalk this morning both in color and firmness.

Huge 0.25" at the base snow board at 5:45am.

I found myself laughing just being excited for flakes when I think start looking at 100" in a few days out west.

 

[alex]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

At least it's snowing this morning.  The snowpack resembles sidewalk this morning both in color and firmness.

Huge 0.25" at the base snow board at 5:45am.

I found myself laughing just being excited for flakes when I think start looking at 100" in a few days out west.

LOL had the same reaction. So nice to see a dusting! It feels like October all over again lol. 

Pack really took a beating overnight with the 50+ rain.

[ApacheTrout]

Looking forward to planting annuals in the garden next week.  Tomatoes and peppers.  Effing ridiculous.

[adk]

California drought: solved. 

10-12' feet of heavy wet snow holds a lot of water I guess. 

I'm actually starting to wonder about next summer in the NE.  Our snowpack doesn't have a ton of water in it and we have had a few below average water years now. if it doesn't pick up in the next 60 days I think next spring could be pretty interesting. 

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.1” Snow/0.05” L.E.

 

There was a tenth of an inch of fluff on the boards this morning in association with the back side of this most recent storm that passed to our west.  Total precipitation with this event has been fairly low – I cleared the liquid out of the rain gauge late last night before it would have a chance to freeze today, and there was only 0.05” in there.

 

Details from the 7:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 31.1 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 2.0 inches

[adk]

9 hours ago, ono said:

 

Around New Years eve skied like a really good December in the backcountry. It felt like a month later, where you could just rip (maybe nearsightedness in my memory). Though the deep streambeds open in places spoke to the rain that happened. Overall, I'd say it was above average up high for December- not by a huge margin, but good. The regularly flip to light rainers was a curveball. 

 

Since then, it's been downward. January may be a tough month, but personal anectdote- January is usually a crappy month. Good Decembers get you buzzed, and Feb/March snow is usually more consistent. January seems to form bleak memories in general over the past decade or so.

I actually think there have been a few good post- Xmas/aroudn New Years BC periods in the last few years. I find that by then, there is usually enough snow to ski in the woods. 

I also don't necessarily share the general thought that January is a tougher month than any of the others. I think that overall, freeze/rain events are just as likely in Dec, Jan, Feb, and march.  I think we have a collective perception about "January" thaws as the tend to come on the heels of the first "good" skiing period we have. But from the data I have seen, there are just as many ****ty periods in Feb and March as January. ...Just the snow pack tends to be deeper then, the temps a little more mild and maybe the pattern a little more active so that either the damage is mitigated quickly with fresh snows, or the options before/after are expanded by the deeper pack (i.e. more high alpine terrain to ski). 

I also note that it rained several times in december- pretty good and hard actually. It just snowed RIGHT on the heels of those rain events. 

[J.Spin]

Well, we’re moving into the next phase of this event with a fairly familiar sight on the radar.  There have been some decent rounds of flakes here in Burlington as the colder air moves into the area, and you can see the snows starting to run into the mountains:

 

 

 

[eyewall]

Smuggs is on wind hold. Hopefully I can still make Bolton for night skiing tomorrow before it is time to draw the shades. As JSpin pointed out, we have seen a few snow showers and have a trace on the ground. Feels like early November.

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[powderfreak]

22 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Smuggs is on wind hold. Hopefully I can still make Bolton for night skiing tomorrow before it is time to draw the shades. As JSpin pointed out, we have seen a few snow showers and have a trace on the ground. Feels like early November.

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk
 

A mild pattern isn't the worst for skiing, just not good for snowfall haha.  Looks like its not overly wet, just like highs of 40F at the mountains.  Early spring-type conditions most likely...which I enjoy quite a bit.

 

[eyewall]

A mild pattern isn't the worst for skiing, just not good for snowfall haha.  Looks like its not overly wet, just like highs of 40F at the mountains.  Early spring-type conditions most likely...which I enjoy quite a bit.

 

Good point and spring conditions can be fun.

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[adk]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

A mild pattern isn't the worst for skiing, just not good for snowfall haha.  Looks like its not overly wet, just like highs of 40F at the mountains.  Early spring-type conditions most likely...which I enjoy quite a bit.

 

True...it's just that if you get cloudy and 37 instead of sunny and 42, the world goes from "Hey that was pretty fun!" to "F this" really fast. 

[eyewall]

BTV talking about an early maple syrup run:

 

Interestingly the 850/925/1000mb zero lines stretch
all the way up to near James Bay in Canada by 12z Wednesday.
With all of that warm air, expect max temps in the mid 40s with
lows hovering around freezing most of the mid week. With those
temps, I anticipate an early season maple syrup run for those
interested parties.

[J.Spin]

24 minutes ago, adk said:

I actually think there have been a few good post- Xmas/aroudn New Years BC periods in the last few years. I find that by then, there is usually enough snow to ski in the woods. 

I also don't necessarily share the general thought that January is a tougher month than any of the others. I think that overall, freeze/rain events are just as likely in Dec, Jan, Feb, and march.  I think we have a collective perception about "January" thaws as the tend to come on the heels of the first "good" skiing period we have. But from the data I have seen, there are just as many ****ty periods in Feb and March as January. ...Just the snow pack tends to be deeper then, the temps a little more mild and maybe the pattern a little more active so that either the damage is mitigated quickly with fresh snows, or the options before/after are expanded by the deeper pack (i.e. more high alpine terrain to ski). 

I also note that it rained several times in december- pretty good and hard actually. It just snowed RIGHT on the heels of those rain events. 

 

Astute comments on all points adk.  This past December was just as you describe – certainly not 100% snow, but when other precipitation types would present themselves, they typically became just a memory as surfaces got buried by more snow.  In some ways it was like a tempered version of the ‘07-‘08 and ‘08-‘09 La Niña Decembers – I recall that they had some mixed precipitation as well, but folks hardly cared because the prolific snowfall just buried it and it simply bolstered the snowpack.

[tamarack]

17 hours ago, Hitman said:

don't ya think the lack of a thaw deserves some significant credit.  Its one thing to get a certain amount of snow over the course of the month, but whether there's a thaw in there, makes huge difference, both in terms of appearance and usability.

Yes, but this month will make up for that lack, in spades.

Only 18 years of data here, so SSS, but my experience is that great December snows beget lousy Januarys, and vice versa to some extent.  Each month averages very close to 20" here.  Not counting this year (see below), I've had 5 Decembers with 30"+ and the following Januarys averaged 14.5".  There's also been 5 Decembers with under 10", and those Januarys averaged 22.4".  This D-J set appears to be reinforcing that pattern, with 39.9" last month, 4.3" so far this month, and little in view to suggest I'll reach 10" by the 31st, though who knows at that distance?

December stats:

Avg max:  28.84  Mildest was 47 on the 27th, and 12/2 the only other day reaching 40.  Coldest max was 1, on 12/16, the coldest daily max I've recorded in December.

Avg. min:  7.87   Coldest was -24 on 12/20.   Mildest min was 30 on 12/1 as slush turned to cold rain.  12/16 and 12/20 joined 12/17/13 as my only Dec mornings at -20 or below.

Mean:  18.35   That was 3.80 BN, 4th coldest of 19, and 11.34 colder than 12/2015.   Mildest mean was 27.5 on 12/27; coldest -9.5 on 12/16.

Precip:  4.99"  That's 110% of average but is the current median for the month.  Probably all but the first inch remained in the pack thru 12/31.  Greatest day was 1.61" on 12/30.

Snow:  39.9"  Missed hitting 40 by 1 hour, as the small 1/1/17 event had only dusted things by my 9 PM obs time.  Average is 20.0".  12/16 is #2 for Dec (behind 2007) and #4 overall (3/01 and 2/08 are #1 and #2.)   Snow cover began with the 2.5" fluff of 12/5, and peaked at 25" on 12/30 (briefly 27" at 7 AM that day.)

Saw snow on 17 days and measurable on 12, with 7" on 12/12 and 6" on 12/17 setting the stage for the 21" bomb on 12/29-30.  The 15.5" on the 30th brought total snowfall for that date to 32.6", tops for the calendar though 2/23 trails by only 1.5" and has a year less of record.  The 21" event ties 2/10-11/05 for my 3rd largest snowfall here, and 5th largest since moving to Maine 44 years ago (less 10 days.)  If I'd measured the same 24.9" as the Farmington co-op, it would trail only the 26.5" of 3/14-15/84.

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

E VT has no snow!  Even up N.  Took me by surprise.

 

[backedgeapproaching]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

E VT has no snow!  Even up N.  Took me by surprise.

 

I first thought your post said they had snow, but realized you said no, which surprises me a little. Those EVT towns are pretty solid CAD machines, would have thought they had some cover left

Pretty much wiped clean here at the base of the western slopes of the greens.

[mreaves]

3 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

I first thought your post said they had snow, but realized you said no, which surprises me a little. Those EVT towns are pretty solid CAD machines, would have thought they had some cover left

Pretty much wiped clean here at the base of the western slopes of the greens.

The Connecticut River Valley is almost as bad at holding snow as the Champlain Valley is, at least from my perspective. 

[backedgeapproaching]

3 minutes ago, mreaves said:

The Connecticut River Valley is almost as bad at holding snow as the Champlain Valley is, at least from my perspective. 

Not possible to be as bad as the CPV, but you have lived here a lot longer than me.  I remember driving through Rockingham VT last Jan and Feb weekly for work and they held onto a small snowpack for what seemed like a a long time. Compare that to my area where it was never more than a few days at a time and im slightly better than the CPV for retention

[mreaves]

11 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Not possible to be as bad as the CPV, but you have lived here a lot longer than me.  I remember driving through Rockingham VT last Jan and Feb weekly for work and they held onto a small snowpack for what seemed like a a long time. Compare that to my area where it was never more than a few days at a time and im slightly better than the CPV for retention

It's not as bad but it's noticeable coming from my direction. Heading east, as soon as you pass Groton, it drops off considerably. Just a bit of hyperbole from me.  

[alex]

Spending the weekend at Jay Peak. First time here, love the terrain but the conditions are awful. Very icy. It's amazing that they've had almost 200" thus season and you can find bare spots on the trails! Speaks volumes of the type of season we've been having. Still, nice mountain!

[J.Spin]

 

16 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

E VT has no snow!  Even up N.  Took me by surprise.

 

14 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

I first thought your post said they had snow, but realized you said no, which surprises me a little. Those EVT towns are pretty solid CAD machines, would have thought they had some cover left.

 

Yeah, I thought that’s what the post said as well, I’m not sure why it would be otherwise.  If we’ve still got our snowpack in place down here in the Winooski Valley, you know EVT has snow.  Look at this morning’s CoCoRaHS map, everything in the eastern half of VT is in green and orange except for one point down in Windham County:

 

[Typhoon Tip]

On 1/13/2017 at 11:04 AM, eyewall said:

BTV talking about an early maple syrup run:

 

Interestingly the 850/925/1000mb zero lines stretch
all the way up to near James Bay in Canada by 12z Wednesday.
With all of that warm air, expect max temps in the mid 40s with
lows hovering around freezing most of the mid week. With those
temps, I anticipate an early season maple syrup run for those
interested parties.

Ha ha - think that has any merit?

I know that tapping around down here ...I think my sister does her farm around the 20th of February.  From speaking to her about this,...it's mostly the flora responds to the sun-angle increasing, but is modulated by temperature.  In the latter sense, I wonder if that is enough, even in the feeble return insolation that's just beginning now, to get the sap mechanics moving.  Interesting..

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

I haven't read back along the NNE thread very far so forgive me if this is covered.... But, we are at the threshold of critical dynamics being relayed out of the GOA over B.C.

I wonder what the physical sounding density is over that part of western N/A.  I would think that it is still somewhat compensated by satellite sounding given that trajectory/latitude from out of the GOA.

Anyway, the atmosphere is marginal ...even up here at hours 96+ ... but, sufficiently cold enough that with some dynamics, the elevations could/should cash in on some snows.  The 12z operational GFS has that signaled pretty well... I'd say above a RUT-CON (est) line should track that mid week deal.  If "that" much more dynamics gets wound up as that bag of tricks trundles overhead you're talking a pretty good burst of wet snow with that (el dependent for now).  That entire evolution has been persistent in the operational GFS, as well... many individual GEFs members have something similar. The margin of error at this range still allows for it -

[J.Spin]

11 minutes ago, alex said:

Spending the weekend at Jay Peak. First time here, love the terrain but the conditions are awful. Very icy. It's amazing that they've had almost 200" thus season and you can find bare spots on the trails! Speaks volumes of the type of season we've been having. Still, nice mountain!

 

This is probably a good weekend to do other stuff than ski, so it’s great that the resorts have so many other options.  It’s not often that we’ll have a refreeze along the spine of the Northern Greens without some new snow to top things off, but new snow was fairly minimal with that last storm.

[backedgeapproaching]

4 hours ago, mreaves said:

It's not as bad but it's noticeable coming from my direction. Heading east, as soon as you pass Groton, it drops off considerably. Just a bit of hyperbole from me.  

Yea, guess it's all relative, it's worse than your spot up near MPV, but still  better than any place in the CPV down through RUT south toward DDH.

I was actually surprised to see some open fields earlier this mornng with large bare sections even at near 1700ft up over the spine near Peru down here n SVT.

[mreaves]

3 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Yea, guess it's all relative, it's worse than your spot up near MPV, but still  better than any place in the CPV down through RUT south toward DDH.

I was actually surprised to see some open fields earlier this mornng with large bare sections even at near 1700ft up over the spine near Peru down here n SVT.

Heading east on 302, snow drops dramatically from the intersection with Rt. 232 (Groton State Forest road) through the village towards Ryegate. The landscape changes too. It's like going from the Northeast Kingdom to the Upper Valley in one town. 

[mreaves]

Wow, snowing lightly. Looks like maybe 1/4". I don't recall thinking we were going to get anything. Nice, overperformer!

[powderfreak]

12 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Wow, snowing lightly. Looks like maybe 1/4". I don't recall thinking we were going to get anything. Nice, overperformer!

There's been a streamer down the Winooski Valley since I've been up around 4am. 

Someone near J.Spin or even the western slopes just north or south of 89 might have gotten 1-2" or so I would think.

Quarter inch at the base of the mountain this morning.  Nothing in town but a trace of some flakes on the car windshield.